Plays that make Cents

BigPete · Aug 31, 2004

Spent a lot of time these last months pouring through spreadsheet data I've compiled for the last 4 years of CFB and think I will have a good handle on things this year. For the most part I will be following a new strategy based on a team by team comparision of stats and compare that to the line. If there is a large discrepancy that fits my category, it will make a play.

The big question is that Teams stats change throughout the year and It will be my best guess on how whether I think these stats will improve or digress from the previous week when I look at the game at hand. However, I do expect some continuity past week 5 which should be quite profitable. If it was a perfect world and teams kept their end of the year averages this method would hit over 70% based on historical data

, problem is as I stated, averages change every week and it will be up to me to take my best guess on which way I see a team heading. For week 1 I'm using last years stats compiled with returning starters to help with my decisions.

Last year I was able hit 60% using my old line and total calculator. Hopefully combined with the new strategy should deadly

Until then I will rely on the above and my intuition.

Heres what I like so far:

Thursday:
EMICH -5.5 (PSP)
UTEP +25 (PSP+GFP)

Saturday & Sunday: Will play Friday
Utah ST (PSP)
MTSU (PSP)
NAVY (PSP)
UNLV (PSP)
OREGON STATE (PSP)
UL(GFP)
Central Mich (PSP)
Tulane (PSP)

GFP: Equals a Gut Feeling Play
PSP: Equals a Point System Play

Might narrow the Saturday and Sunday list down to fit in some Totals once they come out.

Heres to kick starting off the year with a bang.

nightmare · Aug 31, 2004

how do you figure MTSU is going to cover a 28 point spread. UF has beaten MTSU by 56 already and thats when they had a decent team. Doesnt make cents to me!!!1

BigPete · Aug 31, 2004

Parity?

See UGA, CLemson, and Missouri from last year. Niether beat them by more than 28. But thats not why Im taking em.

nightmare · Aug 31, 2004

another little tidbit is that Fedora is the former OC of MTSU and he will have this team mapped out from top to bottom. He will disect MTSU's defense like he did in practice when he coached there for 4 years. IM all over UF on this one looking to see the score around 58-14 something like that.

BigPete · Aug 31, 2004

Looks like I might be running from the hurricane and have no computer access Friday so I pulled the trigger and took the following lines:

Earlier
Emich -5.5
Utep +25.5

Recent:
Utah St +26
MTSU +28
Navy -7
UNLV +20.5 Personal Favorite
Oregon State +18
Add: Northern Ill. +14.5
Central Mich +14

Gonna scratch UL and Tulane. Im not gonna go against LSUPete and take a wait and see approach on MSU. I question UL's defense in this rivalry game. They just allow to many points for me to be confident in a 10 point victory against an SEC team and a rival.

Luckydan · Aug 31, 2004

Nightmare, you're right. Fla got Fedora and Wickline (offensive line coach) from MTSU. I just don't see them running up the score on a guy (Andy McCollum) who gave them a job and the coaching exposure that landed them their jobs at UF.

I think UF will be content to win the MTSU and Eastern Michigan games without showing too much to the UTEE faithful on week three. McCollum has some talent on offense, let's see if he hang within 7 points per quarter in this opener.

Don't forget about Frances (hurricane) either. She could be an equalizer.