Plays for March

[Zapster]

For the past month I have been posting in a thread called "Plays for February." Then this morning I decided to post in a new thread. After long and agonizing deliberations, I came up with a name for the thread you are now reading. I hope you think it's clever.

Longer and far more agonizing has been this partucular NBA season. The totals have been disasterous from day one.....and I still don't get why as I have been using the same exact formula that was very sucessful for the past two seasons.

There have been two bright spots though....: Second half totals (which are not an exact science) have been hitting in the mid 50 percent range (biggies hitting at a higher clip than regulars). They are posted in separate daily threads. Also the sides have been hitting at 55% since January 1st.

For those of you who were reading the February thread, I'm sure there is one question on your mind....and the answer is yes !! I WILL continue the story of the T-Wolves and the Really Ugly Duckling in this thread. For those of you who didn't see the beginning of the story in the other thread and have no idea what I'm talking about....too bad !!! You should have been among the brave and enlightened who read my February thread and there is no helping you now.

Anyway.....here is the final tally for February...........:

Sides: 62-51-1 (.549) (+5.8 Units)
Totals: 48-59-1 (.452) (-33.3 Units)

Totals will stop being posted (again) if the units fall (again) to minus 40. That happened at the beginning of the season for both sides and totals, so please take that into account before investing in any of these plays.

Here are the overnight plays I have for Tuesday 3/1. Sorry I am posting these about 8 hours later than usual. I realize some of the lines may have changed by now. Normally I post these the night before but I had a network problem last night after gathering the lines and before posting to Rx. It gave me more time to think about a clever and unique title for this thread. Anyway....here goes........:

MEM -7 (1)
CHA +7 (1)
MIL -1.5 (6)
CHI -2 (1)
DET -6.5 (3)

GS UNDER 190 (1)
PHI UNDER 207.5 (2)
HOU UNDER 189.5 (1)
ATL UNDER 194.5 (3)
DET UNDER 177.5 (3)

 

[dolphin]

Glad to see some quality support for MILWAUKEE here. I wholeheartedly agree. They have one of the biggest home-away flops in the NBA. They are playing their best ball of the year. Iverson's '05 road wins are v. Jazz (no Kirilenko), GS (no Richardson) and Charlotte.

I still think Webber is a negative relative to what PHI already had...even now, not just into the future. Players breezed by the guy on Saturday.

Also, Porter's group has been pretty good at paybacks during his tenure and are now 0-2 v. PHI this year, plus one carryover from last year.

Everybody "needs" wins, but it could be fairly argued that the Bucks are much more desperate.

 

[Zapster]

Dolphin....I'm flattered that you consider my support to be quality. I don't often have plays in excess of 4 units, so they definately get my attention when they come up. I will be rooting for Mr. Redd and company tonight !!

I also am adding two more plays........:

IND -1 (2)

SEA OVER 186.5 (1)

 

[Zapster]

I learned to hate the month of March when I was in college. It was the month where all the $hit would hit the fan.....and I was usually the one downwind. This was confusing at first because my birthday happens to be in March, so it was a mixed bag. But then I turned 40 and learned to hate my birthday so now March just unambiguously sucks.

It looks like this March will be no exception, judging from how the first day turned out. Sides took a beating as Milwaukee got lit up by Mr. Cornrows and (in an unrelated event) a second half biggie went up in smoke.....and I don't mean in the Cheech & Chong way. By the way....I hear they are getting back together and doing a new movie. I wonder if today's movie audiences will appreciate them.

There is good news in all of this though......there is a 3 Unit fade of Minnesota on the horizon......and...if things go right....that means Chapter Three of "The Really Ugly Duckling" will appear somewhere below sometime tomorrow night !! As if a 3 unit play wasn't enough of a rooting interest !!

Anyway.....here are the stats for February and March.........:

February:
Sides: 62-51-1 (.549) (+5.8 Units)
Totals: 48-59-1 (.452) (-33.3 Units)
March:
Sides: 2-4 (.333) (-7.0 Units)
Totals: 2-4 (.333) (-3.7 Units)

Totals are now 3 Units away from not being posted anymore. If that happens, my apologies to those who have been fading them.....NOT !!

Well I don't know about anybody else but I am PUMPED about having a 3 Unit fade againt the T-Wolves tomorrow night. Anyway....here are the overnight plays............:

HOU +2.5 (2)
SEA +3.5 (2)
BOS -4 (1)
GS +7.5 (3)

NJ UNDER 194.5 (2)
SEA OVER 196 (2)
GS OVER 187 (2)
DAL OVER 204 (1)

I use a calculated power ranking system to calculate the sides. The is no "handicapping" involved per se.....but I gotta inject this........HOW can GS be a 7.5 point dog in Minny when they were a 7 point dog in Memphis ?? Memphis is clearly a better team than Minnesota....are they not ?? The only answer I can think of lies in the yet-to-be-revealed moral to the serialized plagarism I have been posting in my threads. Go Warriors....and stay tuned !!

 

[corporeal]

love your sense of humour, and if GS didn't cover today, i would definitely be on them tomorrow. i'm passing on it, but i hope the warriors add another chapter to your story tomorrow

 

[finite]

Still looking myself but a little confused by the 3 unit play size. It is worst 3 in four and Minn has covered 3 of their last 4 home games. And yes the spread was a little silly in the Memphis game. Still thinking about the game. Seattle and Cleveland though--We are on opposite sides. Handicapping is guessing when teams play or not and I think this is not a game Seattle will exert themselves on. Guess we will see. Gl

 

[Zapster]

Corporeal/Finite........

Thanks for the feedback. Let me clarify a couple of things though.....

First thing is I am posting these plays for documentation purposes only. I am not hyping them with statements like "free money" or "guaranteed winners." I don't have enough of a track record behind me to make representations about the future success of these plays....plus it isn't my style to put outlandish claims in my thread title. Anyway.....as I said in my February thread, people shouldn't blame me if they play these and lose....and no need to thank me if anybody plays these and wins. I just want to be able to say my record is documented when all is said and done.

Ok now the disclaimer is out of the way !!

I know people read this thread though....although (sniff) not NEARLY as many as last season when my totals were in full bloom. I have definately learned something from my fall from the radar and I watch with amused interest as others here have their rises and falls. People handle things very differently.

But I digress.....you both were addressing the merits of the plays, so (as Jules says in Pulp Fiction) "allow me to retort."

I don't take trends into account whatsoever when doing this. I think anybody with a copy of Excel and enough of a database can go backwards and discover all kinds of trends. So with all due respect, I think (and this is just my own opinion) that when you start to try to make sense of how teams do at home, how they do against certain opponents, whether or not they covered yesterday, you are more likely to drive yourself to madness than you are to make a profit from wagering on games.

I have a simple theory when it comes to sides based on one thing and one thing only: The better team will usually play better than the lesser team. Given that, I have used a formula similar to one that was very sucessful in NFL this year to create what are essentially "power factors." I then compare the power factors and use a second formula to create my own version of the pointspread. The play and the units involved are simply a function of the difference between my calculated number and the pointspread. Of course there will many games where that doesn't hold true. My contention is that it WILL hold true at least 54% of the time. I started out the season VERY badly....and was premature in my assumption that I had enough data to start. I tried again in February and seem to have been more correct.

By the way....I am only talking about sides. The totals seem to have contracted some sort of rare an unexplainable disease....and are just a few losing units away from not being posted anymore.
Sooooo......I apologize if in my last post I appeared to be "handicapping" when I talked about GS vs Memphis and the line, etc. I am just so excited (as I know so many others are) about getting to the next chapter in the duck story that I was merely telling myself (and all of you) that the game looks like a really good play from an angle other than the formula. I won't do anything like that again. I type very slowly and am basically a lazy person, so putting myself in a position to explain myself again (and have to do ALL this TYPING) would be pretty stupid of me !!

Oh and by the way.....there is a 5 unit play that I haven't posted yet for today. The city of Sacramento is a place I have held in great contempt for some time now. As a resident of California, I live in a great state that has nothing more than a glorified cowtown for its capital.....and there must be something REALLY bad in the water there because everyone who goes there seems to get very stupid very quickly (cases in point: Grey Davis and Arnold Schwarzawhatever). Add to that the fact that I am a Laker season seat holder and I don't exactly go to sleep at night whispering the word "Sacramento" into the still late night air.

Nevertheless, my numbers make the carpetbaggers who shamefully ditched Kansas City a two point favorite....and they are 6 point dogs. Hopefully they will do better than yesterday's "biggie."

Adding........:

SAC +6 (5)
ATL +10 (1)

SAC OVER 209 (3)

 

[corporeal]

oh, i wasn't trying to say that GS will or will not cover based on trends or anything, i just never bet on a team after they won for me the day before. weird, i know, but it's just one of my little mannerisms.
wish you well on all your games except the NJ under, good luck

 

[Zapster]

Thanks corp.......hey....if I can have all the others, I'll be glad to give you the NJ total

 

[finite]

Took the 6 with Sac myself but getting back to the discussion I am not much of a trend player myself. What I am talking about is assuming all games are not played by a team with equal intensity and trying to find spots where it is reasonable to assume unequal effort by the two teams. No not Quitfactor which I really do not understand just a lot of hopefully logical inferences. GL

 

[Zapster]

Finite........

I hear what you're saying.....and it definately has a ton of merit....*IF*.....you know which team will be less intense. You might want to start a thread and call it "unequal effort plays" (or something to that effect) and track how the plays go. For me though, once I start trying to do that kind of thing it leads to a lot of second guessing and ultimately to chasing. I like to have something formulatic that can be applied consistently. I used to try to pore over every game and try to figure out logically which team was the better play and.....quite honestly....I never was much good at that. A lot of posters here (maybe the majority of them) don't like systems...and the plays in this thread are very much the product of a system.

If you do decide to start a thread, I will be very curious to see how well it goes....and wish you the best of luck !!

 

[corporeal]

that nets game got me right *here*, freakin' 3 points away. i'd rather it have been a slow 2nd half so at least i didn't have the horrible feeling of hope.
congrats on the win

 

[Zapster]

It's gonna be STORY TIME !!!

 

[Zapster]

Well THAT was better. Sides were only 3-3 but the two important plays hit so sides were +5.6 units for the night. Sacramento was the biggie....and a tough & lucky one to hit. On the other hand Golden State EASILY covered against the T-Wolves. More on that later. The totals even had a winning night !! Some of you might remember from early in the season that the totals seem to respond well to the threat of extinction. I'll wait for the final in the Dallas game before I recap the record.

Those of you who have been reading my posts know that every time I sucessfully fade the T-Wolves I plagerize and customize another chapter of the story "The Really Ugly Duckling." I will eschew the usual fanfare and get right to it !!!

First of all.....in an act of totally unnecessary kindness to those of you who did NOT read my posts in February, I will recap chapters one and two for your bandwagonning butts.

Chapter One........:

"Once upon a time, there was a really ugly duckling."

Chapter two...........:

"The other ducklings in the village made fun of him and the grown ducks used to sigh when they saw him because he was seriously downright butt ugly. This made the really ugly duckling sad. In fact it made him REALLY sad. As in.....he was utterly depressed.......but then one day he figured out a plan."

And now....without further ado........Chapter three !!!

"The really ugly duckling decided that he was really ugly because the duck that taught him how to swim (in other words his mother) didn't teach him right and he decided that getting a new mother would assure that he would stop being so ugly. He was very convincing and soon not only had a new mother, but everyone who used to make fun of him was now convinced that he would grow up to be a beautiful swan."

Only one more chapter to go. I bet you can't wait !!! Does this fill the void in your life left by the departure of NYPD Blue ??

The T-Wolves next play Milwaukee on the notorious date of March 4th. March 4th is a story in and of itself and has ab-so-LUTE-ly no place in this thread....so don't even ask !!

Meanwhile there is March 3rd to contend with, so here are the overnight plays for Thursday, 3/3.....:

NJ +5.5 (1)

IND UNDER 183 (1)

Pretty boring, huh ??

 

[Zapster]

Updating the record.........:

February:
Sides: 62-51-1 (.549) (+5.8 Units)
Totals: 48-59-1 (.452) (-33.3 Units)
March:
Sides: 5-7 (.417) (-1.4 Units)
Totals: 5-6 (.455) (+0.0 Units)

And adding the following play.........:

DET +3.5 (3)

 

[Zapster]

Adding........

MIA OVER 193.5 (1)
DET OVER 207.5 (1)

So here the the complete list of plays for Wednesday 3/3........:

NJ +5.5 (1)
DET +3.5 (3)

MIA OVER 193.5 (1)
IND UNDER 183 (1)
DET OVER 207.5 (1)

Not too boring after all...at least for a Thursday.

 

[Zapster]

A happy March 4th to all.

Here is the record entering that infamous date...........:

February:
Sides: 62-51-1 (.549) (+5.8 Units)
Totals: 48-59-1 (.452) (-33.3 Units)
March:
Sides: 6-8 (.429) (+0.5 Units)
Totals: 6-7 (.462) (-0.1 Units)

LOTS of games on March 4th. 12 of them !! So there are lots of overnight plays to post, not the least of which is yet another fade of the T-Wolves, so we may be able to wrap up our little fable tomorrow night !! Anyway......here goes...........:

NYK +4.5 (4)
GS +6 (2)
MIA -6 (3)
MIL +6 (4)
TOR +5.5 (1)
SA -9.5 (1)

NYK OVER 206 (1)
CLE OVER 201 (1)
GS UNDER 208.5 (1)
CHA UNDER 198.5 (1)
MIL OVER 194 (1)
TOR OVER 192.5 (1)
CHI UNDER 185 (2)

 

[Zapster]

Adding........:

IND +6.5 (5)

IND UNDER 178 (1)
DET OVER 188 (2)
DAL OVER 205 (3)

7 sides and 10 totals !!! Well there will DEFINATELY be a story tonight......not sure just what story that will be, but this is going to be the night we settle all family business one way or the other !!

And no....I don't think that is too many plays. Quite the opposite. My premise is that these will hit 54+% in the long run, so a lot of plays takes away from the nuances of a small sample. I hope to be posting the rest of the duck story sometime later tonight.

 

[Zapster]

Well that was utter madness !! And when the smoke clears the two systems combined for a profit for the night of 0.6 units. Hey that is better than a loss !! The T-Wolves managed to push so we don't get the 4th and final chapter of the story tonight. I hope this doesn't ruin anybody's weekend.

Here are the updated stats.........:

February:
Sides: 62-51-1 (.549) (+5.8 Units)
Totals: 48-59-1 (.452) (-33.3 Units)
March:
Sides: 9-11 (.450) (+3.9 Units)
Totals: 10-13 (.435) (-2.9 Units)

And here are the overnight plays for Saturday, el cinco de March. We are now only 10 days from The Ides.........:

CHA +4.5 (1)
ORL +5 (1)

WAS UNDER 199 (1)
ORL UNDER 195 (1)
POR UNDER 211.5 (3)

 

[Zapster]

Adding........:

DEN OVER 188 (1)