PLAYOFF SUNDAY BET O THE DAY

[OccamsRazor]

RECORD YTD 61-45 (.575)
SIDES 39-30 (.565)
TOTALS 22-15 (.594)

Clev/NY failed to clear the 191 Total on Wednesday a loss here.

Playoffs are here and to some its time for the real NBA to start. Still a long journey to the finals and we'll take our first step on Sunday. First I'd like to thank OldMan for posting the playoff series records.

A Quick look at the series reveals that SanAntonio, Detroit, Lakers and Sacramento were ALL 1-3 ATS against their opponents and can be considered poor bets as favorites. Proceed accordingly. Dogs in these series worth a look specially at home. For you Total bettors note that all of the MIAMI/NO and SPURS/GRIZZ games went UNDER. DO some figuring and see if the linemaker has overcompensated on the line, making the OVER a value play or if he has left things alone making going down with the trend the way to go.(I'm pressed for time right now and won't be able to post much this weekend.)

MIAMI has been very good to me this year here at home as we rode them and their 20-6 ATS as a home favorite record many times. Miami was 3-1 ATS against NO this year.(MIAMI and MINNY were the only 2 teams that against their the playoff series opponents brought home the money at 3-1 ATS) NO is 4-6 ATS last 10 away while Miami has won 12 in a row at home SU and is 9-3 ATS during the stretch. I'll ride Miami at home once again.

MIAMI-6

Home Cooking... Bamm

[This message was edited by OccamsRazor on April 16, 2004 at 06:16 PM.]

 

[the70srule]

Great stats OCC. Like Miami in the game as well, but hate the point spread. Hoping to get it lower like at 5.5 or even 4.5 if bettors hit the dogs hard tomorrow AM. Good luck and keep up the solid posts.

 

[RobFunk]

i got occams starting at gaurd. can he keep up the hot shooting in the playoffs?! i hate this spread also, but this guy is uncanny. hornets are strong upfront, but miami's gaurd play has just been plain sick

 

[DonMarco]

i'll be on the opposite side here.

good luck occam.

 

[Anonymous1]

hey emeril...errr razor...gltu in the playoff season...

 

[Schouest]

Hornets are a mess...Miami is the play..I'm wit cha here !!

 

[OccamsRazor]

Line down to 5.5 at some shops. A good sign here. Throughout the year, being on the opposite side of the money coming in has proven profitable. Money coming in on N.O.

UNDER came in on the Spurs/Grizz series for the 5th time in a row last night. Miami/NO looking for their 5th straight UNDER tonight.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I don't have the numbers here in front of me but I would be willing to bet that the Heat players have much more playoff experience than the Hornets. Look at the SA/Mem game to see what playoff experience can do for a 1st game.

The play here is Miami.

Occams, I bet on the SA/Mem UNDER for the game but I also thought it would go UNDER for the 2nd half. Nope. Any idea as to why?

 

[thetexaskid]

mia looks good, i may take them 1st H

 

[OccamsRazor]

BigGame: Garbage time. You always have to be careful betting second have UNDERS in first half blowouts. Tonio was up by 15 at the half and stretched it out in the third. By the 4th Tonio was conceding baskets to the Bears who were desperately trying to get back in.

Good Luck to all today.

 

[spreadbeater]

Big Games Only,
The Hornets have significantly more playoff experience than the Heat. They have a ton of veterans with playoff experience, icluding some with NBA Finals experience(Lynch,Smith). The Heat only have a few players with ANY playoff experience(Grant, Jones, Walker). The majority of the Heat's rotation has NEVER even played in the playoffs, with Odom, Wade, Caron Butler, Rasual Butler, and Haslem all going to the playoffs for the first time. Rafer Alston has one just one series of playoff experience, while sitting on the bench. All of the Hornets players have been here before and know how to win in the playoffs. So if you are betting this game, with the thought that the Heat are much more experienced, you are dead wrong. Not sure who is the play here, but just wanted to let you know about the experience factor. Good luck on whoever you decide to play.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

spreadbeater:

My assumptions were wrong then. Thanks for setting the record straight.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

occams:

Thanks for the explanation. It makes perfect sense to me.

I had heard that if there is a big spread at the half that the tendency is UNDER since the team that is ahead by so much oftentimes gives up toward the end. This is what makes this game so difficult to master. There are differing opinions on the same situation.

[This message was edited by BigGamesOnly on April 18, 2004 at 02:33 PM.]

 

[2white]

miami wins easy today and won't let us down

 

[OccamsRazor]

Been away from computers since Sat. Just back in and wanted to say Ouch. Miami won their 13 in a row SU. But are now 9-4 ATS. Strange how you root for the Heat all game long and at the end your rooting against them to miss that last shot and send this thing into OT so we can try and take care of business. Game went UNDER again.

Don't like anything today Monday. Front page of the sports section in LA is all about how Laker game is going to be low scoring. When you start seeing that in the front page you can rest assure that the Lakers and the Home Under trend is running its course.

Did you guys see the Sac/Dallas game, Al Michaels is excitedly talking about a shootout in the pregame,( You can be sure he has the OVER) 40 seconds into the game, yes 40 seconds into the game, he's all dejected and bad mouthing Dallas pointing out they've only scored 1 point 40 seconds in. It was funny, a true gambler. I thought I was bad yelling at the TV one minute into my games.

 

[3peet]

...and did you also catch him subtly try to slide..."a total of 120 points scored at the end of 2". after halftime was over?

I think we all know by now he's a degenerate g____bler. His MNF half time total's reminders speak for themself. ---as if the rest of the general public cares about how many total points are scored at the end of a half or the entire game right?

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