Playoff Saturday Bet O The Day 1/15

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 7-6
SIDES 6-5
TOTALS 1-1

Week 7 SD+3 W
Week 8 SD-6 W
Week 9 Philly Pk L
Week 10 Detroit+3.5 L
Week 11 SD-3.5 W
Week 12 INDY/DET UN 54 W
Week 13 SD ML W
Week 14 MINN/SEAT OV 51 L
Week 15 Atlanta -3 T, Buff-2.5 W
Week 16 MINN-3 L INDY-7 L
WeeK 17 Carolina -7 L

WildCard Jets+7 W


Jets won outright here last week as we were able to take advantage of the better defense + points situation

I loved the Rams and the points all week till I sat down and started Capping the game. Bettors have short term memories and we allow the last game to impact us too much and that is what was going on with me and the Rams. Rams are last in TO differential and main reason is that their feeble defense does not take the ball away enough. Atlanta on the other hand has a ball hawking defense that can win games outright. Bulger vs Atlanta's home defense the advantage overwhelmingly is on Atlanta's side. Rams get grounded big time today. Vick and the offense is extra. Consensus here is on the Rams for the wrong reason.(Offense) Defense is what is all about in the playoffs.

ATLANTA-6.5, can be found or bought down from 7

 

[ESQAJM]

OR: Had the same experience until I realized that Atlanta is one of the most underrated teams. Their all around numbers are overwhelmingly better than SL. Although I feel they still rely too much on Vick. If Vick has a bad day Atlanta will lose. But Vick will not have a bad day against this defense. I'm with you as usual.
ESQAJM

 

[sphincter]

i couldn`t agree more....with bruce pretty dinged up to boot.........the rams appear to be the public darlings this week....i`ve thought they were bogus from the jump.....

regardless of the 7-6,i`ve always considered you a must read in this forum.....very solid.....no b.s...

best of luck

 

[sphincter]

duplicate

 

[coconutman]

Occams i felt the same way as you did about the Rams and now you just completely changed my mind. I hope that by game time the line moves down to 6.5 which will indicate that the smart play will be the Falcons. Your right about the short term memory with the bettors. It's just like the Minnesota game, someone posted that in Philly people are placing money on MInnesota which really suprised me. Im a dieheart Packers fan and i know that Favre can look incrediable one day and like a 3rd string QB the other. Minnesota happened to lose the first two games and won the one that really mattered and that was the game Favre played like crap. Packers do have issues with defence but it was offences foult the ball for giving away so easily. Well back to the point, im prolly gonna be with you on Atlanta and we'll see about tomorrow.


Best of luck.

coco

 

[xflrejects]

all due respect gents,but there is so much more to look at than just last week's game or the one before that....YES, YOU ARE CORRECT so let's take a deeper look....

[]STL +7 AND OVER 48[]


As for the NFC's second-best team in the regular season, the 11-5 Atlanta

Falcons came very close to becoming the first 11-win team in NFL history (since the league went to a 16-game schedule) to allow more points than they scored. This is NOT

significant! including the falcons this year,exactly 62 teams have won exactly

11 games in the NFL...and only the falcons have come this close to not

outscoring their opponents over an entire year(340 points cored and 337 allowed).atlanta is not a typical 11-5 team...

STL is much improved, their run defense has come togetheras of late-last week they held shaun alexander to just 40 yds. on 15 carries- on the road.In week 2 vs. atlanta ,their young defensive linemen were learning how to play, plus

they didn't have the two corners, the linebackers were out, they didn't have a free safety, and their strong safety was hurt.

STL is playing w/ a lot of confidence and when i look at who atlanta beat,i see only two impressive wins..41-28 in denver and the win vs. STL.I will not count the one they beat carolina as the panthers were virtually playing w/ an entire backup defensive line and the 10 pt. win vs. tampa was inflated by a late turnover. in week 2 vs. the rams it was 17-17 going into the 4th q. when two late turnovers killed the rams chances.I am well aware of the outstanding pash rush of atlanta's defensive front esp. kerney and coleman- and the fact that they amassed a league-leading 48 sacks while the rams have an abysmal turnover ratio but 8 of those (-24) came in two games courtesy of chris chandler and the rams may also be a 11-5 team if bulger hadn;t missed those three games. he was playing injured even back in weeks #5/6 but he is healthy now and the team is highly energized as if it's a whole new season.

hell,martz even told bulger he loved him this past week...o.k. ,o.k.,i won't use that in my capping argument.Do you think martz may be vermeil's long lost estranged son?

but getting back to the matter at hand here....i like the fact that we have one team who can't stop the run vs. one team who can't stop the pass.the weaponry is very even here.falcons backers are kidding themselves if they think the rams are not much improved over week # 2.their run defence has improved. it took them almost the entire season to key into this defensive scheme.then they needed bulger back before the impact would be noticed.falcons have two very small corners at 5' 9" and 5' 10" respectively. you think these guys won't get exploited.i also like the playoff experience edge here going to the rams who are playing in the same dome where they won their only super bowl! and i'll take the jim mora sr./scottenheimer playoff curse to filter down to an offspring in his big playoff coaching debut.

bruce is playing-their young WR corps have been stepping up anyway. jackson is fine.it was not his ribs but a muscle surrounding them. he'l wear a flak vest for insurance but he was taking full hits by thurs. and feeling fine. I expect the rams to get a lot more yards on the ground esp. w/ the tandem of jackson and faulk. you know faulk is a competitor who will step up for a game of this magnitude-especially being such a dual purpose threat.the rams defence improved from # 29 to # 17 in the last 5 weeks alone.little and archuleta will have big games.

i'm not even gonna mention the dome..ah ****, i slipped..whatever..........



the over looks very good here.the rams have made it clear they are not into clock control but will aim to score every possession.if it turns into a track meet that is fine with them. in the last 13 of 15 games played between these two ;one of them has scored 30+ PTS.when i look at the mismatches in both the rushing and passing game going opposite ways and the level of intensity this game should exemplify...you know vick,crumpler and dunn/ducket are gonna get their share of points...i see 56-64 pts. in this game even if the defenses to come to play.





i truly feel that the rams playing full out last few weeks compared to the falcons resting starters and not playing a full out match in 4 weeks will aid and abet the potent fast-start rams offence.If the falcon shave to play catch-up that will be very difficult considering the woeful state of their passing game. RAMS WINNING SU would not surprise me but i really like the points.:toast:

 

[ilovefootball+]

So funny, I live in Atlanta and what I heard at the bar that atlanta will not win tonight!!! as well as radio talks...

 

[ESQAJM]

XFL:Nice writeup. Appreciate the effort and time spent on it, but don't agree with it. By 12:00 tonight we will know who was right.
ESQAJM

 

[sphincter]

vindication.......i think we had the right side in this one....congrats...

 

[xflrejects]

guys- i was very wrong.props be to all of you who played their convictions.i'm glad i had a lot more faith in the over so i still came out ahead but even though i held off all week (mainly because i knew that atlanta is a jekyll& hyde team to cap and w/ that extra week i was aware there could be a blowout and if it were to happen the rams would be the victims) i capped it the way i saw it.actually gave it a pretty thorough investigation but i came out on the wrong side big-time and i have no problem stating the facts.


my hats off to all of you who called a rout.:toast:

gl 2 all tomorrow.

i only like philly under and the pats fairly heavily.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Playoffs are about defense and games have to be Capped first from that perspective. No surprises here today as the Falcons Home defense held St. Louis to 17 points and threw in a safety for good measure. 17 points is what Atlanta has been holding opponents to at home all season long. St Louis contributed to the romp by showing up with the 30th or worse ranked special teams and no run defense. Mismatch.

From a critical thinking perspective I've noticed that when most bettors are on one side disproportionably and are wrong,(In this case St Louis) bettors are usually focusing on just ONE of the 3 main variables (Offense, Defense and Special teams) and discounting the other 2. Adding fuel to the fire bettors are then letting the pointspread (matters only in 18%) sway their reasoning, "7 is too many." When you find yourself on a Side along with everybody and their mother ask yourself why you are there. Everybody and their mother type games USUALLY win IF you have all the 3 main variables in your pocket and lose if you only have one or two. Looking at my record above, all the San Diego games I picked it was commented on all that I was picking a team that everyone and their mother was on. Well I was picking SD for all the right reasons better special teams and better offense and defense. The one San Diego game that everybody and their mother was on that I didn't side with SD was last week against the Jets who came in with the better defense.

Any everyone and their mother games on today Sunday? Eagle vs Vikings, Colts vs Patriots. Is everyone and their mother on one side for the all the right reasons or are they just focusing on one variable and letting the pointspread dictate their choice?