Looks like it's going to happen...if you know up front who's going to be in the Super Bowl and its outcome before the playoffs even start, it would truly be a serious advantage in playing almost all of the games when both teams come from a 1st round wildcard spot...
As I suggested after week 15...
finishing the reverse engineering of the Super Bowl...
As it is there are only 2 teams remaining (using the #'s formula), who are capable of reaching 20 or more pts with 2 games left..
That's New England and Seattle
Let's break down the chances and see who has the better chance of getting there.
12-2 New England (+14) needs to win out and hold both opponents to less than 14pts, their 2 remaining games are on the road vs divisional rivals, let's check out their history in these spots.
Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......17...27...49...37...14....9....19...38
Ny.......16...30...19...16...28...16...10...14.........ny was held to under 14pts only once in 8 years
Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......20...20...23...38...41...21...48...49
Mia......33...24...16...24...14...22...28...28........mia was held to under 14pts 0 times in 8 years
9-5 Seattle (+18) needs to win out and hold at least one opponent to less than 14pts, they also have 2 divisional games left, one at home and one on the road.
Let's check out the history in these spots.
Year.......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Stl..........6.....9....13...13....6....0....13....6
Sea........20...27...20...30...16...28...37...33.........stl was held to under 14pts every game over last 8 years
Year......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Sea.......35...34...16...20...36...20...21...20
Ari.........6....22...20...23...18...31...34...23.........Ariz was held under 14pts once in last 8 years
Path to 20+pts seems more likely for Seattle, let's assume they get it and apply the #'s
Since Seattle has the highest # of all the teams in the playoffs...
**the sb team with the lower # of the 2 participants has covered ats in 9 of last 10 years since 05, as well as winning the game su in 9 of last 11 years since 04**
Given the path Seattle had to take to get to the bowl, knocking out Carolina and/or Green Bay and/or Arizona and previous sb experience they would undoubtedly be favored in the game..
**when the team with the lower # is the dog in the bowl they're 7-0 ats and 6-1 su s 01**
Now we're looking for the afc representative in the bowl, it's important to have the afc team have an equal or worse finishing reg season record than Seattle (for different reasons), and the only reasonable teams out there are Pittsburgh and Kansas city.
With their records currently the same, whichever team of these 2 who finishes with the worse reg season record will become the next Super Bowl champion.
Sometimes the Super Bowl teams previously meet in the regular season, when this happens the team who lost the reg sea game su, avenges it and gets the win in the bowl, The last 7 times this occurred the reg sea loser got the win 5 times...I believe that's the case this year...when Seattle beat Pittsburgh on November 29th at home 39-30
GAME.
As I suggested after week 15...
finishing the reverse engineering of the Super Bowl...
As it is there are only 2 teams remaining (using the #'s formula), who are capable of reaching 20 or more pts with 2 games left..
That's New England and Seattle
Let's break down the chances and see who has the better chance of getting there.
12-2 New England (+14) needs to win out and hold both opponents to less than 14pts, their 2 remaining games are on the road vs divisional rivals, let's check out their history in these spots.
Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......17...27...49...37...14....9....19...38
Ny.......16...30...19...16...28...16...10...14.........ny was held to under 14pts only once in 8 years
Year.....14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Ne.......20...20...23...38...41...21...48...49
Mia......33...24...16...24...14...22...28...28........mia was held to under 14pts 0 times in 8 years
9-5 Seattle (+18) needs to win out and hold at least one opponent to less than 14pts, they also have 2 divisional games left, one at home and one on the road.
Let's check out the history in these spots.
Year.......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Stl..........6.....9....13...13....6....0....13....6
Sea........20...27...20...30...16...28...37...33.........stl was held to under 14pts every game over last 8 years
Year......14...13...12...11...10...09...08...07
Sea.......35...34...16...20...36...20...21...20
Ari.........6....22...20...23...18...31...34...23.........Ariz was held under 14pts once in last 8 years
Path to 20+pts seems more likely for Seattle, let's assume they get it and apply the #'s
Since Seattle has the highest # of all the teams in the playoffs...
**the sb team with the lower # of the 2 participants has covered ats in 9 of last 10 years since 05, as well as winning the game su in 9 of last 11 years since 04**
Given the path Seattle had to take to get to the bowl, knocking out Carolina and/or Green Bay and/or Arizona and previous sb experience they would undoubtedly be favored in the game..
**when the team with the lower # is the dog in the bowl they're 7-0 ats and 6-1 su s 01**
Now we're looking for the afc representative in the bowl, it's important to have the afc team have an equal or worse finishing reg season record than Seattle (for different reasons), and the only reasonable teams out there are Pittsburgh and Kansas city.
With their records currently the same, whichever team of these 2 who finishes with the worse reg season record will become the next Super Bowl champion.
Sometimes the Super Bowl teams previously meet in the regular season, when this happens the team who lost the reg sea game su, avenges it and gets the win in the bowl, The last 7 times this occurred the reg sea loser got the win 5 times...I believe that's the case this year...when Seattle beat Pittsburgh on November 29th at home 39-30
GAME.
