Playing UNDER the TOTAL every game the first month?

Journeyman · Oct 29, 2004

I'm kind of laying low but I think iff ypou play UNDER every game the first moth you will profit...Anyone have last years numbers on the totals for the entire first month?

Also I have seen stats where over the past 15 years, 10+ point dogs are covering at over 60% across the board ...

brewers7 · Oct 29, 2004

2003-04 season...

Last season:

Week 1: 19 Overs, 27 Unders, 1 Push
Week 2: 25 Overs, 22 Unders
Week 3: 21 Overs, 28 Unders
Week 4: 24 Overs, 23 Unders, 1 Push

As far as your other question goes, I am still in the process of expanding my NBA database backwards, but haven't gotten back that far yet...

However, it wouldn't surprise me to see DD Dogs cover close to 60% of those games, although over a stretch of 15 years, I'd guess it's closer to 55-to-58% of the time (probably closer to 55%)...

brewers7

quantumleap · Oct 29, 2004

brewers7 said:
However, it wouldn't surprise me to see DD Dogs cover close to 60% of those games, although over a stretch of 15 years, I'd guess it's closer to 55-to-58% of the time (probably closer to 55%)...

brewers7

brewers:

Have you done any analysis on the DD Dogs from last year?

Thanks in advance.

tatehill2000 · Oct 30, 2004

Journey,,, I think with a little bit of capping you can SHAVE off a COUPLE that WILL go over,,,and put yourself Easily into the 60%,,,

My totals plays will start on the 8th,,,,, or 9th,,,and I suspect ZAP and I will have agreeds in the second week,,,,,
good luck
tater

heart222 · Oct 30, 2004

I looked at last years o/u by teams and there are tremendous runs of 4-6 games either oor u by team. i am planning to play teams when both teams were o in last game or under in last game to continue streak. will advise as we go along. i am going to do the western teams as they are more fun to watch. i will also do the knicks and wizards game by game as i grew up in n.y. and live in d.c. now. will try and post results on Mondays.

brewers7 · Oct 30, 2004

2003-04 Underdogs thru All-Star break...

Dang, I just noticed that my database from last year is not completely updated...It is 100% updated through the All-Star Game, then I need to tweak a few things a bit...

But, through all games (including FEB 12), the Double-digit underdogs are only 42-36-2 ATS...That's a bit surprising to me...

But I'm sure it makes Vegas happy...I'll have to update a few more items so I have last season completely done...

brewers7 · Oct 30, 2004

heart222:

I have that data, too...

Again, I need to update after the All-Star break, but for instance, up to the break:

Atlanta

12 instances where they and their opponent had an Under the game before:

7 Unders and 5 Overs

6 instances where they and their opponent had an Over the game before:

1 Over, 4 unders and 1 push

And if Atlanta had an Under the game before: 17 Unders, 10 Overs
-----If Atlanta had an Over the game before: 12 Overs, 10 Unders, 1 push

Guess I need to update that database, pronto...I also have 1st-half lines, 2nd-half lines, and lines broken down by quarter...

brewers7

heart222 · Oct 30, 2004

brewer if i read your data correctly just betting atl through the season with no concern for previous oppon game was better than matching both teams on same side of o/u. i was looking for a way to reduce games by trying to match up previous. i matched the west up and it appeared o.k. i did it manually and didnt keep the numbers but it was enough positive that i am going to try west vs west only when match up. Duetyo schedule changes they play each other 3x instead of 4x so a few less games which is always o.k. i think.
I ended my data April 1 as so many teams are sending it in by then i dont think the histories have as much value, isuspect you could pack it in March 15th and be o.k. also. 2 weeks off to get ready for baseball.