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PittViperSports.com - SPREADSHEET FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 11TH

Boston Red Sox

at

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays +116

Game Date: 5/11/2011
Game Time: 7:05 PM
Picking: Full Game

Pick Write-Up

ROT# 974 - 7:05pm - Toronto Blue Jays +116

Risk 2 units to win 2.32 units



Expected Starting Pitchers:
*both starting pitchers must start for this to be an official bet*
Boston Red Sox: John Lackey (2-4, 7.16 ERA)
Toronto Blue Jays: Jesse Litsch (3-2, 4.04 ERA)

Public Betting Percentage: 54% of the public is on Toronto; 46% of the public is on Boston
My Ranking: Toronto has 55.16% chance of winning; Boston has a 44.84% chance of winning.

The (17-19) Boston Red Sox will face off at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, in what is game two of a three game series with the (16-20) Blue Jays. Boston is 6-10 on the road while Toronto is 8-8 at home this season. In last night’s matchup between these two teams, both starting pitchers got lit-up and the result was 7-6 Toronto win in extra innings.

John Lackey (2-4, 7.16 ERA) gets the start for the Boston Red Sox tonight. Through six starts, Lackey has an ERA of 7.16, a WHIP of 1.74; giving up 44 hits, 13 walks and 26 earned runs in just 32 innings of work. Opposing batters are hitting .317 against Lackey this season, leading to him pitching a minimum of six innings in just half of his starts. In all three of those starts, in which he was pulled before the 6th inning, he has given up between 6+ runs. This is his 2nd season as a Red Sox; last year he had an ERA of 4.4, WHIP of 1.42 and BAA of .277. In his most recent start, Lackey gave up 10 hits, 3 walks, 8 runs and striking out just one batter in four innings of work. When asked about the start catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (that is not a typo haha) said "His curveball had good bite, he just wasn't able to get a first strike when we needed it. When the count is 2-1, 3-1, he's usually able to do that. But he's not throwing 95 [mph], so you can't just rely on the fastball every time. We just weren't able to get back into counts." Lackey is 3-3, with a 3.82 ERA lifetime at the Rogers Centre.

Jesse Litsch (3-2, 4.04 ERA) gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight. Through six starts, Litsch has an ERA of 4.04, WHIP of 1.37 and BAA of .255; he has held righties to a .148 average this season. He has fared better at home, with a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and BAA of .217. He’s been very consistent this season as he’s pitched at least six innings in five of his six starts, including the last four straight; and has yet to give up 10+ hits/walks in a single start, while Lackey has given up 10+ hits/walks in three of his six starts. Litsch also set a career high with nine strikeouts in his last start against Detroit picking up his third victory of the season after allowing just one run on four hits. Blue Jays manager John Farrell commented after that game, talking about Litsch and their team as one unit saying "We're getting extended outings on a more consistent basis. Any time you point to the success of a rotation it probably reflects the consistency of how you play as a team. I like to think that we're getting more of those types of performances."

The Boston Red Sox offense is batting a combined .255 this season overall, .233 on the road and .289 in their last ten games. The Toronto Blue Jays offense is batting a combined .244 this season overall, .250 at home and .228 in their last ten starts. Versus Right-handed pitchers, Boston is batting .253 this season overall, .237 on the road and .283 in their last ten games. Versus Right-handed pitchers, Toronto is batting .231 this season overall, .235 at home and .217 in their last ten games. This can be deceptive though. Despite Boston’s batting average advantage, it is important to note that Toronto is a power hitting team; which leads to more runs (which is what really matters) but a lower batting average. Boston’s offense has averaged 3.98 runs per game overall, 3.88 on the road and 4.39 in their past ten; while Torontos offense has averaged 4.75 runs per game overall, 5.30 at home and 6.31 in their past ten (yes averaging 6.31 runs in their last ten with a batting just .228). Toronto is very good at being patient, getting base runners and then jacking the ball deep; and can turn one run deficit into a one run lead in the blink of an eye. I do live in Toronto but please know that this is NOT a homer play, I don’t bet with my heart. You will see me fade this Toronto team many times this season, but they do often have value like tonight. They should be able to hit a couple homeruns off big John Lackey, who in three lifetime games versus Jose Bautista has allowed him to hit two home runs.

Another thing to note is that the Toronto Blue Jays had been hit with some injury problems early on this season but are fully healthy now with Adam Lind being the only main exception. The Red Sox will be without Marco Scutaro tonight, due to injury a few nights ago, and the hot hitting Jed Lowrie (.321 batting average this season) will get the night off to rest as he is dealing with an illness that started last night. Lowrie has the best batting average of any Red Sox player this season.

The bullpen advantage goes to Toronto who are sporting an ERA of 2.73 and WHIP of 1.10 compared to Boston’s bullpen ERA of 4.49 and WHIP of 1.26. Boston Relief pitchers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler were both injured a week ago and put on the bullpens DL, weakening the bullpen. On top of this Tim Wakefield and Alfredo Aceves were used to pitch a combined complete game Friday, and after the five-hour rain-delayed affair last week, the bullpen has yet to catch its breath, making John Lackey's start on Wednesday all the more important; knowing their bullpen is very thin. This should mean more fastball strikes from Lackey and less curveball dancing around the plate, as he tries to keep his pitch count down, which typically would mean more hits for the Blue Jays.

PittVipers Final Prediction
Gary Darling is umpiring tonight’s game and he’s very much so a pitchers umpire, meaning his strike zone is very wide, so I don’t expect this to be a scoring fest like in last night’s game. However, with a thin bullpen and some popping bats the Blue Jays will be able to muster up some runs versus Lackey and company and I expect another solid, consistent performance from both Jesse Litsch and this Blue Jays bullpen.

Blue Jays 5 – Redsox 2


Best of luck in all your future endeavors,
Matthew Bittle - PittViper


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St. Louis Cardinals

at

Chicago Cubs

Game Date: 5/12/2011
Game Time: 2:20 PM
Picking: Full Game


Pick Write-Up

ROT# 901 - 2:20pm - St. Louis Cardinals -145
Risk 3 units to win 2.07 units
Line from 5dimes.com

To view PittVipers Spreadsheet for Thursday May 12th, Click Below:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ao8CSVMd4slVdGc2bjMzaG9NX0hMYmk3TFBzM0VUYXc&hl=en

Expected Starting Pitchers:
*both starting pitchers must start for this to be an official bet*

St. Louis Cardinals: Jaime Garcia (4-0, 1.99 ERA)
Chicago Cubs: Casey Coleman (1-2, 6.29 ERA)

Public Betting Percentage: 62% of the public is on St. Louis; 32% of the public is on Chicago
My Ranking: St. Louis has a 65.86% chance of winning; Chicago has a 34.14% chance of winning.

Jaime Garcia (4-0) gets the start for the (21-16) St. Louis Cardinals today at the world famous Wrigley Field, to take on Casey Coleman (1-2) and the (16-19) Chicago Cubs. This is game three of three between these teams, this series; both teams have a win with STL winning game one 6-4 and Chicago winning yesterday 11-4. The Cardinals are 11-7 on the road this season while Chicago is 8-11 at home.

Left-handed Garcia, when his command is right, is one of the best pitchers in the Major leagues. This is his 8th start of the year, but he is off to a great start with an ERA of 1.99, WHIP of 0.97 and BAA of .205; incredible numbers. In day games (two), he has an ERA of 1.80, WHIP of 0.80 and BAA of .180. He already has pitched two complete games, his first start of the season and his most recent start, allowing just six hits, three walks, and zero runs in 18 innings of work. He has yet to allow an opponent to score more than three runs in a game and has yet to walk more than two batters in a game. In four of his 7 games he's allowed opponents to score just one run or less. In 45 innings of work he has struck out 44 batters, allowing just 11 walks and 33 hits - that means he strikes out as many batters as he allows getting on base. Solid all around pitcher and when he is on the top of his game he is lights out.

Coleman on the other hand, is making his 6th start tonight with a season ERA of 6.29, WHIP of 1.77 and BAA of .281. At Wrigley field he's been even worse, through two starts, with an ERA of 8.31, WHIP of 1.96 and BAA of 2.86. His one quality start was at night, but in day games (four) he has an ERA of 7.71, WHIP of 1.93 and BAA of .303; allowing 23 hits, 13 walks and 16 runs in just 18 innings of work. He has only last six innings of work in one game (exactly 6 innings), allowing 4+ runs in three of his five starts. Coleman is a mess, his pitching mechanics are off his delivery has been delayed and I think these St. Louis bats will pounce all over him in the windy city today.

St. Louis' offense is batting an overall .278 this season, .305 on the road and .247 in their last ten games. Chicago's offense is batting an overall .272 this season, .276 at home and .278 in their last ten games. St. Louis numbers improve against right handed pitchers, batting an overall .283, .324 on the road and .246 in their last ten. Chicago's numbers versus lefties also improves their average, but they have had very little action versus them this season, batting .290 overall, .272 at home and .315 in their last ten. St. Louis offense has scored 6+ runs in 7 of their last ten games while Chicagos offense has only scored 6+ runs in one of their last ten games; last night's 11-4 win over STL. Both teams will be missing two key players today, which cancel each other out; with St. Louis likely resting Lance Berkman and a recently injured Ryan Theriot while Chicago will be without their main star, ARAM, Amaris Ramirez (personal reasons) and Geovany Soto (recent groin injury).

Both bullpens have been decent this season as far ERA goes, with St. Louis having an edge. The Cardinals bullpen has an ERA of 3.04 and WHIP of 1.33, compared to the Cubs bullpen ERA of 3.72 and WHIP of 1.43. St. Louis bullpen was taxed for seven innings of work yesterday as Jake Westbrook gave up 5 runs in the first two innings, but since this game was pretty much out of reach from the beginning St. Louis used up a majority of their bullpens scrub players. Now, if you look at the bullpens numbers for St. Louis, of players who are eligible to play tonight their ERA is a solid 2.08 and WHP of 1.23.

PittVipers Final Prediction
This game comes down to two pitchers, one solid - one not, and will make all the difference in this game. I expect Coleman to be removed before the 6thinning and for St. Louis to add a couple more runs against Chicago's bullpen on route to a 7-2 win.

St. Louis 7 - Chicago 2

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Arizona Diamondbacks

at

San Francisco Giants[/B]

Game Date: 5/12/2011
Game Time: 3:45 PM
Picking: Full Game

Pick Write-Up

ROT# 903 - 3:45pm - Arizona Diamondbacks +125
Risk 2 units to win 2.5 units
Line from 5dimes.com


To view PittVipers Spreadsheet for Thursday May 12th, Click Below:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ao8CSVMd4slVdGc2bjMzaG9NX0hMYmk3TFBzM0VUYXc&hl=en

Expected Starting Pitchers:
*both starting pitchers must start for this to be an official bet*

Arizona Diamondbacks: Daniel Hudson (3-4, 4.47 ERA)
San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain (2-2, 3.38 ERA)

Public Betting Percentage: 51% of the public is on Arizona; 49% of the public is on San Frnacisco
My Ranking: Arizona has a 49.47% chance of winning; San Francisco has a 50.53% chance of winning.

Daniel Hudson (3-4) gets the start tonight for the (15-20) Arizona Diamondbacks at the defending World Series Giants (20-16) San Francisco Giants AT&T Park this afternoon, who start Matt Cain (2-2). This is game three, of a three game series, between these two ball clubs in which San Francisco has one the first two meetings 1-0 and 4-3. It is interesting to note that while Arizona is 4-6 in their past ten game and San Francisco is 7-3, four of Arizona's six losses have been by just one run and four of San Francisco's seven wins have been by just one run. Despite San Francisco's stellar pitchers and World Series last season, one would not be crazy to say that Arizona has better hitting, power, speed and defense than this San Francisco team; Arizona's pitching is just nothing in comparison (as they only have two solid pitchers Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson).

Daniel Hudson this season - for Arizona - has an ERA of 4.47, WHIP of 1.26 and BAA of .256; all pretty decent numbers besides the ERA. His control was a bit shaky in the first four games of the season giving up 12 walks (an average of three per game) but has been solid since, giving up only 1 walk over his last three starts; recording a win in all three games, with an ERA of 2.70 and WHIP of 1.20. On the road Hudson has a WHIP of 1.20 a BAA of .235 but an ERA of 4.91. His ERA this season is very deceptive and not a reflection of how good Hudson is, who has a career ERA of 3.13, WHIP of 1.11 and BAA of .220. Last season he had an ERA of 2.45, a WHIP of 1.00 and BAA of .202 (amazing numbers) and since those first four games of the season Hudson has appeared to turn the curve and return to the form he was at last year.

Matt Cain gets the start for the Giants, sporting an ERA of 3.38, a WHIP of 1.2 and BAA of .244; he's no slouch either. Before I say anything more, I'd like to make this next point very clear as it is something that attracted me to this game: Giants catch Buster Posey will get the night off to rest, after being struck in the head with two straight foul balls in the late innings of last night game (coach says he is fine, it is just precautionary). Now what this means to San Francisco isn't just lowered offensive production in tonight's game but more importantly defensive production. You could say the pitcher is Batman and the catcher is Robin, as they are both essential keys to each other's success. If the communication is just a little off, not only does this frustrate the catcher but effects how they work batters and strategize. This should have an effect on today's game; especially because this is an afternoon game after a night game so the Pitcher-Catcher haven't much time to practice together or strategize for today's game. Matt Cain is very solid though, only giving up 2 runs or more in 7 starts this season. During day games however (three), he has an ERA of 4.32, WHIP of 1.56 and BAA of .309. The humidity of the afternoon has some effect on his style of pitching, the ball just carries further.

Arizona gets the slight edge on offense. The Diamondbacks are batting an overall .238 this season, .225 on the road and .206 in their last ten. The Giants are batting .232 this season, .236 at home and .219 in their last ten. Both teams are batting about the same versus right handed pitchers. Similar to the Blue Jays, this Arizona team gets most of their production from speed, smart base-running and a few heavy hitters; they are averaging 4.49 runs per game compared to San Francisco's 3.47. Though it is a small sample size of 55 innings pitched, Daniel Hudson has performed very well versus the Giants in his three season career, to date: he has held the Giants batters to a combined BAA of .167. Another note to mention is that not only will catcher Buster Posey be out today, their top offensive player Pablo Santoval has been sidelined with injury the past ten games. The Giants have only been able to average 2.8 runs of offense per game since his injury.

Both bullpens are sold. Arizonas bullpen ERA is 2.88 and WHIP is 1.27, while San Francisco's bullpen ERA is 2.72 and WHIP is 1.08. Arizonas bullpen has been lights out though since a shaky start: in the last eight games, over 26 innings of relief work, they've pitched a combined ERA of 0.35 and WHIP of 0.86 (GIVING UP JUST ONE RUN).

Key Matchups
Stephen Drew (ARI) vs Matt Cain (SF) -- 10-for-29 (.345), 3 HR, 7 RBI

PittVipers Final Prediction
This likely won't be an exciting game to watch, unless you love the art of pitching like me, but without Posey calling the shots behind the plate and San Francisco missing two of their top four run producers on offense - I expect another solid performance from the already solid Hudson and a 5-2 Arizona win.

Arizona Diamondbacks 5 - San Francisco Giants 2

Best of luck,
PittViper

 

[Pittviper.Sports]

Friday May 13th, FREE

www.pittvipersports.com

Good morning - I hope you have Happy Friday,

A re-cap of yesterday: 1-1 + 0.07 units

Pick Result: Won +2.07 units
Recap: Well St. Louis scored five runs in the 2nd inning, and the rest is history. 9-1 St.Louis

Pick Result: Lost -2 units
Recap: Well San Francisco scored their 1st run mainling due to an error and that made all of the difference in a very tight game. Arizona had men on both corners with just one out in the top of the 9th, but struck out two straight times and lost 4-3 to San Fran.

We've had three blowout wins and three losses by 0.5 runs/1 run - so just going to keep plugging away, this is a grind and when things start bouncing our way we get hot!

Now on to Friday,

To view PittVipers Spreadsheet for Wednesday May 13th, Click Below:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ao8CSVMd4slVdC03d2xOdkJweU5LUTRWeTVrUkhUQmc&hl=en

*WRITE-UPS WILL BE ADDED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON*

NOTE: We have two moneyline wagers today as well as one Total wager. I couldn't leave either of these bets alone as they all showed great short term and long term value (two ML and one O/U); i'd be stupid not to be them. This means that one of these days we'll have a day with no MLB picks, just a total, likely a Sunday when theres not as much action.


St. Louis Cardinals

at

Cincinnati Reds

Game Date: 5/13/2011
Game Time: 7:10 PM
Picking: Full Game
MoneyLine
Result: Open

MLB MoneyLine Pick

St. Louis Cardinals +100


Pick Write-Up

ROT# 955 - 7:10pm - St. Louis Cardinals +100
Risk 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
*not a dog or a favorite*
Line from 5dimes.com


Toronto Blue Jays

at

Minnesota Twins

Game Date: 5/13/2011
Game Time: 8:10 PM
Picking: Full Game
MoneyLine
Result: Open

MLB MoneyLine Pick

Toronto Blue Jays -120


Pick Write-Up

ROT# 977 - 7:10pm - Toronto Blue Jays -120
Risk 3 units to win 2.5 units
*not a dog or a favorite*
Line from 5dimes.com


Arizona Diamondbacks

at

Los Angeles Dodgers

Game Date: 5/13/2011
Game Time: 10:10 PM
Picking: Full Game
Total
Result: Open


MLB Total Pick

Over 7 (+110)


Pick Write-Up

ROT# 965 - 10:10pm - Arizona/Los Angeles over 7 +110
Risk 2.5 units to win 2.75 units
*not a dog or a favorite*
Line from 5dimes.com



Best of luck in all your future endeavors,
Matthew Bittle - PittViper

 

[Pittviper.Sports]

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FREE MLB PICKS, WRITE-UPS SPREADSHEETS (FOR MAY AND JUNE ONLY)

Yesterdays Recap: 1-1 +0.28 units

Game 1 Result: WON +2.78 units
Cleveland won 19-1 ... enough said.

Game 2 Result: Lost -2.5 units
A whacky, whacky game. It ended whacky and started whacky - with the game being pushed back an hour and a half due to rain. Johnson had a bad start, which is a rarity - but yet the Mets couldn't capitalize off the mistakes. The bases were loaded a few times, many men left in scoring position but Florida won 2-1 off a single by their pitcher in the top of the 11th.
Now, on to today:
(There is lots of good value out there, I also leaned strong to Baltimore)



San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Game Date: 5/17/2011
Game Time: 3:10 PM
Picking: Full Game
MoneyLine
Result: Open


MLB MoneyLine Pick

San Francisco Giants +128



Pick Write-Up

ROT# 955 - 3:10pm EST: San Francisco Giants +128
Risk 2 units to win 2.56 units
Line from: 5dimes.com

Here is a link to my MLB Match-Ups Spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ao8CSVMd4slVdEtNTnJaR2k0XzVLc1dhY1RqMjhqOHc&hl=en

Starting Pitchers (must start):
San Francisco Giants: Jonathon Sanchez (3-2, 3.68 ERA)
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez (0-3, 6.67 ERA)

*Write-ups to be e-mailed out in the next few hours*





Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Game Date: 5/17/2011
Game Time: 7:10 PM
Picking: Full Game
Total
Result: Open


MLB Total Pick

Over 7.5 (-115)



Pick Write-Up

ROT# 957 - 7:10pm EST: Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati OVER 7.5 -115
Risk 2.5 units to win 2.17 units
Line from: 5dimes.com

Here is a link to my MLB Match-Ups Spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ao8CSVMd4slVdEtNTnJaR2k0XzVLc1dhY1RqMjhqOHc&hl=en

Starting Pitchers (must start):
San Francisco Giants: Matt Garza (2-4, 4.17 ERA)
Colorado Rockies: Edinson Volquez (3-1, 5.74 ERA)

*Write-ups to be e-mailed out in the next few hours*




Best of luck in all your future endeavors,
Matthew Bittle - PittViper


Website: www.pittvipersports.com
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PittViper Sports - FREE PICKS - Tuesday May 24th:

St. Louis Cardinals -119
St. Louis/San Diego over 6.5 -115

Here is a link to my FREE MLB Match-Ups Spreadsheet for Today:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spre...J2dWc&hl=en_US


Write-up:

The (29-20) St. Louis Cardinals will take on the (19-29) San Diego Padres tonight. St. Louis is tied for best in the NL, while San Diego is 2nd worst in the NL. St. Louis has been playing great baseball on the road this season, with a record of 15-11 – which is the best road record of any team in the National league - , while San Diego has struggled all season at home with a record of 8-19 – which is the worst home record of any team in the National League. St. Louis has won six of their past eight games and 3-1 on this current road trip (including a 3-1 win over San Diego last night). San Diego has lost five of their last six home games, since the start of this current home stand, and have lost six of their last eight games overall. These teams are 2-2 versus each other this season San Diego winning the first two (one in extra innings) and St. Louis winning the most recent two.

St. Louis will start pitcher (6-1) Kyle McClellan, who will get his 9th start of the season; and his career. Prior to 2011, McClellan was used as a relief pitcher for STL sporting a 3.13 ERA, WHIP of 1.26 and BAA of .229 through 218 innings of work. He was upgraded to the starter role this season and has yet to disappoint as he currently leads the National League with wins with six; this will be first career “start” versus San Diego. Through nine starts in 2011, he has an ERA of 3.43, WHIP of 1.28 and BAA .253. He has lasted six+ innings in all of his starts, but one, and has allowed opponents 2 runs or less in six of his nine starts. However, in three of his past five starts he has given up 4/5 runs – but in his most recent start he allowed 5 hits, 0 walks and two runs in eight innings of work. He’s holding opposing left handed batters to a .160 average but is allowing righties to hit .307 against him this season. San Diego’s line-up is composed of five right handed batters and three lefties, with a bench full of righties. McClellan has struggled a bit on the road and at night, with a road ERA of 4.01/ WHIP of 1.50 and a night ERA of 3.79/WHIP of 1.46. He will be in a favorable spot tonight, however, pitching in a pitchers ballpark against one of the worst offensive teams in the MLB. Bottom line, he has been solid as a starter overall this season – but he is definitely hittable.

(5-2) Aaron Harang will make his tenth start of the season tonight for San Diego, game 250 and start 244 of his career. Prior to 2011 he played for seven and a half seasons in Cincinnati and one and a half in Oakland. As a Cincinnati starter, he made five opening day starts (but Cincinnati’s pitching has always been an issue – so that’s not saying all that much). 2005-2007 were his best years, but his pitching mechanics seemed to change in 2008 (as he went 16-6 in 2007 and 6-17 in 2008), he then struggled for two more years – last year he had an ERA of 5.32, WHIP of 1.59 and BAA of .309. He was traded last off season to San Diego, for three main reasons … 1) Because he grew up in San Diego, visited Padres games as a kid and went to San Diego State for college. 2) Because San Diego is well known as a pitchers ballpark. 3) Because San Diego has one of the best pitching coaches in the MLB, who told Harang prior to the deal that he noticed the difference in his pitching mechanics from 2002-2007 and 2008-2010. In the past few years Harang has put on weight, lost strength in his arm but did work fairly hard in the off-season with the pitching coach and was awarded his sixth opening day start in the MLB; in which he allowed 6 hits, 2 walks and just one run. He won his first four games of the season, allowing just 21 hits, 5 walks and 5 runs in 24 innings of work. Since then, he has returned to 2010 form with just one win in five starts allowing 35 hits, 12 walks and 21 runs in 30 innings of work. He has a season ERA of 4.31, WHIP of 1.34 and BAA of .265; allowing lefties to hit .278 and righties .256. Like I mentioned, his mechanics were changed to start the season but strength and confidence has been an in issue in his most recent starts. However, in his most recent start he had his best of the season – allowing 6 hits, 2 walks and 0 runs in eight innings of work at home to a Milwaukee team that was struggling on the road and will now face the hottest hitting team in the Major Leagues (who do very well on the road). He’ll have his work cut out for him tonight. He likes to attack the strike zone and doesn’t have all that much velocity on his off-speed pitches. I expect him to give up base runners against St. Louis who leads the league in hits as well as in walks, and allow some softies that St. Louis will hit for doubles and a couple out of the park; Harang has given up seven homeruns in his last five starts.

St. Louis has the #1 offense in the MLB, averaging 5.02 runs per game, as well as leading in the following categories: Hits (469), Doubles (98), Walks (194), Total Bases (708), RBI (236), Batting Average (.282), OBP (.361), OPS (.786). San Diego has the 29th best offense (out of 30) with a Batting average of .231 (29th), Runs per game of 3.46 (30th) and are in the bottom three in almost every other statistical category. St. Louis also has the fourth fewest strikeouts, while San Diego has the most strikeouts (averaging 8 per game). San Diego has had a batting average under .195 in all five of their past five games, while St. Louis has had a batting average of .195 or higher in all of five of their past five games. San Diego has one of the lowest payrolls in the MLB and lost their best offensive player, Adrian Gonzalez – to Boston this past offseason. It is fair to say that six St. Louis hitters are better than San Diego’s best hitter (seven if you included the injured Holliday). St. Louis is hitting even better on the road, .290 and against right handed pitchers they are hitting .304 on the road. San Diego is hitting .199 at home and .197 at home versus righties.

St. Louis bullpen ERA is pretty solid at 3.34, despite a WHIP of 1.42. However, in their past 20 innings of work STL bullpen has an ERA of 7.58 and WHIP of 1.89. San Diego’s bullpen is the best part of their team with an ERA of 2.37 and WHIP of 1.07. In their last 20 innings of work they have an ERA of 3.84 and WHIP of 1.18.

PittVipers Final Prediction:
I see St. Louis making life for Harang very difficult tonight. I know the San Diego struggles to score, and at home, I know that San Diego is a pitchers ball park – but Harang is a type of pitcher that these St. Louis batters dream about. Not much movement on his off-speed pitches, his control has been a bit erratic as of late and he’s looked fairly predictable. There are too many big bats in this lineup not to score 4-6 runs off of him. St. Louis may struggle versus San Diego’s bullpen, but the later innings is when I expect San Diego’s offense to make things a little interesting. I predict after five innings the score will be, St. Louis 4 – San Diego 1... After nine I expect the score to be around St. Louis 5 – San Diego 3.

St. Louis 5 – San Diego 3

Best of luck,
PittViper - Matthew Bittle