Pitt. +4.5 Should I middle?

[curt]

Being in Mass.,my local is making NE a 4.5 point favorite. I can buy them down to 2.5 at -120 at Pinnacle or keep them at 3 for +105. I know you guys are mostly against middling. Earlier in the week,Shrink talked about how much an important number 3 is. I feel that I have two key numbers in 3 and 4. My question is should I middle and if yes,how should I do it. I appreciate your wisdom. Good luck to all today.

 

[Marco]

I got a piece of NE -3 at +110 at Oly....the number has moved but the last time I checked this morning it went back to that line.....

I was hoping the number would move and I could get Pitt at +3.5 or more, but I was really doubting the books would move off the 3....

If you can get Pitt at +4.5 and get that line at Oly with NE -3 at +110, you would have a free middle as the juice would get cancelled out regardless who won if the middle didn't hit.

I'd hedge because this game could end up being a three point game very easily.

 

[Deb12]

Hello curt...

If I were you I would definately snag Pittsburgh with the +4.5 points your local is giving out and then get the pats at -2.5 with one of the online books...in my humble opinion you would be foolish not to do it.

I personally did the same thing with the Eagle game, the line opened with Philly installed as -4.5 favorites, I expected the line to move upwards closer to game time so I went ahead and bought the Eagles down to -4 and waited.

Just this morning ( Sunday ) I grabbed the falcons +6...thus in my middle I have the Eagles -4 and the falcons +6, meaning of course that I need the game to end with Philly winning by 5 points to collect on both ends.

The odds are longer of me hitting my middle needing a "5" but the Eagles did in fact have two home wins this season that landed on the magical "5" as they defeated Baltimore 15-10 and defeated Dallas 12-7...so I took the chance.

In your case of having the pats -2.5 and Pittsburgh +4.5 you actually need the pats to win by either 3 or 4 points to collect on both sides...and the reality is that most games do in fact land on 3 or 4 than most other numbers, so I would say GO FOR IT!!

take care and good luck!

Deb

 

[curt]

Just checked the line at OLy and it is +105. I am thinking of betting twice as much on Pitt as I am on Ne because I like them plus it is a better value. Thanks.

 

[curt]

Thanks Deb and Marco. Much appreciated.

 

[hardcorecap]

without a doubt I would middle that. I live in mass, and i would love to be able to get the Steelers at 4.5.. They wont play as bad as they did last week, and the Pats wont play as good as last week. This will be a close game..

 

[WCBias]

Can I transfer the balance of my Pinn account to you and have you take Pitt +4.5 for me?

 

[curt]

Sorry but my local only has a $500 limit.

 

[X-Files]

local bookie... Pitt +4.5 -110
Pinnacle.........NE -4.5 +146

local.............11000 > 10000
Pinnacle........10000 > 14600 {+3600}

 

[Marco]

Looks nice X....

Nice bounce on the NE line too...

 

[curt]

Would love to do that X Files but my local has a $500 limit.

 

[Marco]

So what did you decide to do Curt???

Halftime.....I'm buying back Pitts -3 at +110......taking a 14 point middle and if that misses I got the juice....

Also got a piece of over 17 second half at -110....it's -130 now.....

 

[Marco]

Adding NE Team total over 9.5 second half -105......

 

[curt]

I put twice as much on Pittsburgh as I did New England. So much for the extra 1.5 points. I guess my local knew exactly what he is doing. I do not see New England losing the Superbowl. I would take the moneyline now before it goes higher.