Thanks boys......
One note that I always factor into my plays, is obviously fading the public in selective games. Tonight Utah State was up to -5.5 / - 6 at some places. There is almost 70% of the action on them - mainly due to the convincing wins over Boise and Fresno State. My trigger on this game is the line dropping. That has sucker written all over it. They want more and more money to come in on Utah State. When this happens and I make these plays, it has a pretty successful % of winning. Its obviously no guarantee but I am definitely upgrading my play and adding more to my original wager. Even at +4 right now, I'm still adding to it. Have a gut feeling that SDST wins this game or loses on a last drive FG or OT.
One note that I always factor into my plays, is obviously fading the public in selective games. Tonight Utah State was up to -5.5 / - 6 at some places. There is almost 70% of the action on them - mainly due to the convincing wins over Boise and Fresno State. My trigger on this game is the line dropping. That has sucker written all over it. They want more and more money to come in on Utah State. When this happens and I make these plays, it has a pretty successful % of winning. Its obviously no guarantee but I am definitely upgrading my play and adding more to my original wager. Even at +4 right now, I'm still adding to it. Have a gut feeling that SDST wins this game or loses on a last drive FG or OT.
- Aztecs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Aztecs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Love your two early plays, PITBULL, especially the Kansas State one.
I just can't see a Bill Snyder coached Kansas State team being bull-whipped for a 2nd week in a row.
IMO, Kansas State will be in the game for the duration and even has a puncher's chance for the outright win.
What score do you forecast? :think2:
I'm a bit leery of the Tennessee +15 play, but I can be persuaded! :think:
I just can't see a Bill Snyder coached Kansas State team being bull-whipped for a 2nd week in a row.
IMO, Kansas State will be in the game for the duration and even has a puncher's chance for the outright win.
What score do you forecast? :think2:
I'm a bit leery of the Tennessee +15 play, but I can be persuaded! :think:
I do think k state has a solid chance to win this outright. Texas doesn't deserve to lay 7+ to anyone. But yea my main reason on this one was the fact they lost last week like that. Don't think it happens again.
as for ten.....it's a combo of fading public and the fact that this team could easily be 6-0. Their 3 losses are by 1, 4 and 7. They are in every game. I think bama just doesn't come out looking to pound them and just does enough to win. Maybe 8-12 pt win here.
as for ten.....it's a combo of fading public and the fact that this team could easily be 6-0. Their 3 losses are by 1, 4 and 7. They are in every game. I think bama just doesn't come out looking to pound them and just does enough to win. Maybe 8-12 pt win here.
Thanks for taking the time to explain your reasoning and rationale behind your 2 early plays.
For the Kansas State at Texas game, are you concerned at all about the wet weather being forecasted for the time slot of the game? :think2:
Here's the current forecast for Austin, TX via weather.com. Hope it doesn't affect the ATS play, because I really like Kansas State +7.
For the Kansas State at Texas game, are you concerned at all about the wet weather being forecasted for the time slot of the game? :think2:
Here's the current forecast for Austin, TX via weather.com. Hope it doesn't affect the ATS play, because I really like Kansas State +7.
Cool! Thanks for your input on the Kansas State play of your's.
With the two "fade the public" plays you just posted, I take it "leans" aren't assigned any * value?
Hope you're wrong about Toledo, since I bet them at -14.
I think they'll have to royally crap the bed (sleepwalk, multiple turnovers, etc.) not to bludgeon Massachusetts by 21 or more.
Massachusetts' defense (both passing and rushing) is absolutely horrid. Toledo's offense should have their way with them.
Anyway, we'll soon see.
With the two "fade the public" plays you just posted, I take it "leans" aren't assigned any * value?
Hope you're wrong about Toledo, since I bet them at -14.
I think they'll have to royally crap the bed (sleepwalk, multiple turnovers, etc.) not to bludgeon Massachusetts by 21 or more.
Massachusetts' defense (both passing and rushing) is absolutely horrid. Toledo's offense should have their way with them.
Anyway, we'll soon see.
Listen I hope you win that game as I probably won't play it. One of my biggest factors in fading public is to see the most lopsided wager totals. In that game, it's one of them. Everything points to Toledo in a waxing. 14 seems way to low imo. just be careful on it. Hopefully you're not risking to much. At the same time I hope you cash it in.
Official Early plays
Kansas State +7.5
Kent State +14.5
Bowling Green was up around 15 and is now down to 13.5??? Just like last night with the public hammering Utah State and the line dropping, its to entice more money on Bowling Green. This has trap written all over it. I am now making this an official play. It fits perfectly in my system of wagering.
Kansas State +7.5
Kent State +14.5
Bowling Green was up around 15 and is now down to 13.5??? Just like last night with the public hammering Utah State and the line dropping, its to entice more money on Bowling Green. This has trap written all over it. I am now making this an official play. It fits perfectly in my system of wagering.
