Pipestew 11/29/08 (11-14-1 YTD)

[Pipestew]

11-14-1 YTD (44%) (-4.65*)


1* George Mason -6 (-115)
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George Mason will attempt to avenge last year’s BracketBuster loss to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Ohio</st1lace></st1:State> in a game in which George Mason blew a 17-point half time lead. Mason returns the bulk of that squad while <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Ohio</st1lace></st1:State> loss the majority of their scoring output from that game. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Ohio</st1lace></st1:State> is 2-0 and has shot 55% from behind the arc. A 55% three point rate is obviously unattainable over the long haul, and also likely to end against a very solid George Mason defense. George Mason should dominate the glass as they have averaged nearly a +8 rebounding margin so far this season. In terms of offense, George Mason has an extremely deep bench and 9 different players have scored in double figures this season. If all goes according to play, Mason will dominate inside the paint and force <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Ohio</st1lace></st1:State> to rely on the long ball. Hopefully the long ball does not drop at a 55% pace and Mason easily wins this contest.
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1* <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Evansville</st1lace></st1:City> +9
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This line honestly confuses me. These teams have squared off in each of the last two seasons with <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Butler</st1lace></st1:City> lined as a ten point favorite. Both of ended as predicted by the line with <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Butler</st1lace></st1:City> winning both contest by roughly 10 points. However, this is not nearly the same <st1:City w:st="on">Butler</st1:City> squad that defeated <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Evansville</st1lace></st1:City> the last two seasons. The most significant difference is the absence of AJ Graves, who scored 22 points in the last two games against <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Evansville</st1lace></st1:City>. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Butler</st1lace></st1:City> started 3 freshman in their last game and do not have one senior on the squad. Meanwhile, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Evansville</st1lace></st1:City> returns the majority of last season’s team, including guard Shy Ely. The Purple Aces also starts seniors Nate Garner and Jason Holsinger. Freshman forward James Haarsma has made immediate impacts as well. It is my opinion that <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Evansville</st1lace></st1:City> has a legitimate shot at winning this game.

I will be adding more games throughout the day. Good Luck.

 

[Pipestew]

Added Play

1* <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Cal</st1laceName> <st1laceName w:st="on">State</st1laceName></st1lace> Northridge +3
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These teams faced each other last season in a Bracketbuster game that saw Rider win via last second free throws. Northridge shot a below average 27% from three point range in that match up. Both schools essentially return all of their key players with the exception of Rider big man Jason Thompson, who now plays in the NBA. Thompson was a huge impact player in last year’s game as he pulled down 16 rebounds and I think his absence combined with a hopefully improved shooting performance from Northridge should allow Cal and their senior leadership to win this game. Also worth noting is that Rider has trailed by double digits in both of their last two games…vs Lehigh and Lafayette.

 

[Pipestew]

Added Play

1* <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> -2.5
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<st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> is off to a 4-1 start with the only loss coming against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">California</st1lace></st1:State>. Led by Dior Lowhorn and Manny Quezada, and under the leadership of first year head coach Rex Walters, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> should be a drastically improved and refocused team this season after a fairly chaotic and unsuccessful 2007-2008 season. This play is fairly automatic for me. This will be the first road game for <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Colorado St</st1:address></st1:Street>. The Rams were 0-14 on the road last year and have already loss to Division II Saint Martin’s.

 

[Pipestew]

Added Play

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o>Evansville allowed Butler to go on a 13-0 run late in the game that destroyed any chance of covering the spread. Fantastic.</o>
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<o>Northridge decided that it would be cool to shoot absolutely terrilble.</o>
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<o>Hopefully the night games help me turn this nightmare around.</o>
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1* <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on">St.</st1lace> Bonaventure -3.5
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Canisius is simply a terrible offensive basketball team. They rank near last in all significant offensive categories and have had major problems turning over the ball. Defensively, Canisius has struggled to force turnovers, thus making their offensive possessions even more significant. In the end, I think that St. Bonaventure’s solid defense will be able to do more than enough to limit Canisius’ poor offense and -3.5 seems more than a reasonable number to cover for a St. Bonnie team that is on the rise.

 

[brutusthebuckeye+]

hope things turn around for you pipes!good luck on the rest of your card!:drink:

 

[Pipestew]

Added Play

1* Central Michigan / <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">Illinois</st1:State> <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> OVER 130
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Looking at the game logs for these teams, the results would indicate that this total is fairly accurate; however, both teams have faced very slow paced opponents who were able to control the game pace due to the fact that CMU and Illinois-Chicago are both fairly bad teams. Illinois-Chicago has played Bradley, Northern Iowa, DePaul, and Howard while CMU has played <st1:City w:st="on">Princeton</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">Missouri</st1:State> <st1lace w:st="on">St.</st1lace>, and <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Wright St</st1:address></st1:Street>. Almost all of those teams are ranked below 300 in regards to tempo. In the one game that CMU played against an up-tempo team (<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Chicago St.</st1:address></st1:Street>), the game ended with 158 total points. Illinois-Chicago ranks in the top 25 in tempo and both teams should be willing to run after having been forced to play so many slow paced games.

 

[Pipestew]

Saturday Recap

Today has been extremely disappointing. I stand at 1-4 on the day with 1 game pending.

San Francisco held the lead for nearly the entire game until the fading minutes where missed free throws cost me a half point loss.

St. Bonaventure dominated the glass, but Canisius shot lights out. The Bonnies held a 5 point lead with 30s remaining, but they played the most pathetic final 30s in basketball history and lost the game straight. It did not help that Canisius made two three point buckets in the last 20 seconds.

That is enough complaining for today. Good luck to any late night plays you have.