Pinnacle / Bookmaker Matchups - 05/27/07

[Labeeb]

68-64, ROI +$.081, +23.34 units

Pinnacle

BEL7 - Tasteyville +103 / Cahmp Safi - 3 units
BEL8 - Will He Shine -108 / Congo King - 1 unit (This is at Bookmaker as well at -115)
CD9 - Lumberjack Cat +105 / Markum - 1 unit
CD10 - Chosen Chief +111 / Mighty Beau - 2 units
HOL3 - Swiss Ace +137 / Sunshine Lover - 8 units
HOL8 - Red Hot Renee +124 / Affirmed Cat - 1 unit

Bookmaker

BEL7 - Bailero +130 / Champ Safi - 3 units
HOL4 - Roosevelt +130 / Luberon - 1 unit

 

[SamB.]

HOL4 - Roosevelt +130 / Luberon - 1 unit

Roosevelt to -175 in less than 30 min.

 

[SamB.]

Must have been a flipped line. 8-1 ML vs. 12-1 ML.

 

[Labeeb]

Someone else brought that to my attention as well. If I had to play the matchup offshore with the new line, the other side is the play since the matchup is nothing more than a pick at best.

 

[HerzvanRentle]

That's a large play on HOL3. I know it's 10 vs 18 on the sheets but raw times were close and it was only their first outing and at 4.5f too. I just wanted to know if it's just a sheet play or do you have another reason.

 

[Labeeb]

Raw times mean absolutely nothing to me. Times have to be examined in the context of the day. So you have the sheet angle, plus the post position draw. Sunshine Lover drew the rail, never a place I like to see a two year old with speed. Would much rather see them drawn outside like Swiss Ace. Then there's the price. The +137 line is way out of line with where I think it should be. Given the large variance between my perceived line and the actual line, dictates a large play. You have to be confident in your ability to detect and capitalize on variance. A little side note is Talamo's relative lack of success riding 2yos.