PigPicks Tuesday 2/1

[pigjockey]

Format...
R# then top 4 picks in PP order (1 2 3 4)
Horse to watch/***=best longshot play

Philly

R1 2 3 8 9
9

R2 1 3 5 9
5

R3 1 5 6 11
1

R4 4 5 8 9
9***

R5 1 6 7 8
6

R6 1 3 4 5
3

R7 3 4 8 7
4***

R8 1 4 7 8
7

R9 3 4 6 11
6***

R10 6 8 10 12
8***
...............
TAMPA
R1 3 6 7 9
9

R2 1 2 5 7
7

R3 4 5 9 13

R4 2 5 9 10

R5 2 3 4 8
2

R6 1 5 6 10
1

R7 2 3 4 7
7

R8 1 3 4 6
1

R9 1 2 4 6

R10 2 4 7 8
8
.......................
Beula
R1 1 2 3 4
1

R2 1 2 6 8
6

R3 2 3 4 6
4**

R4 4 5 6 7

R5 3 4 5 7...7 should be tuff but might be bet down

R6 2 6 8 9
6

R7 2 7 9 10
10

R8 1 6 7 8
1/8***keep eye on 3...this race could be huge pays

R9 1 2 3 4
2

Good Luck...pj

 

[smooth53_98]

Good luck today pj!

-smooth

 

[pigjockey]

You too smooth, there's lots of money for both/all of us out there!!!

 

[pigjockey]

*****RECAP*******WHAT A GREAT DAY!!!!!
Philly

R1 2 3 8 9...9 2 3...w=7.40(ml = 6/1..ouch)..x=25.20...tri=131.60
9

R2 1 3 5 9...1 6 9...w=7.40...dd=34.40...nice overlay
5

R3 1 5 6 11...1 8 6...w=11.60...p3=248.40...on two singles
1

R4 4 5 8 9...9 4 5...w=14.80...x=50.40..tri=113.20..dd=96.80...p3=615.60 (on two singles)
9***........YOWZA!!!!!!!!!!!

R5 1 6 7 8...7 6 1 8...w=13.80...x=91.60..tri=342.80...p3=831.00(on two singles)...too bad they didn't offer super!!
6

R6 1 3 4 5...1 3 4...x=23.40..tri=107.80..p3=287.60
3

R7 3 4 8 7...8 4 3...w=24.00..x=80.80...tri=280.20..p3=300.20...BABY!!!!
4***

R8 1 4 7 8...1 7 5...x=16.20..p3=203.20
7

R9 3 4 6 11...3 10 8..p3=141.20
6***

R10 6 8 10 12...10 8 9...x=69.40
8***
...............
TAMPA
R1 3 6 7 9...1 6 9....monster price...time for a milkshake
9

R2 1 2 5 7...2 4 7...huge overlay w=40.80
7

R3 4 5 9 13...4 11 1...got bet down

R4 2 5 9 10....12 7 10...no good

R5 2 3 4 8...4 8 5...chalks...x=23.00
2

R6 1 5 6 10..scr 6..1 4 2...w=8.80..got bet down
1

R7 2 3 4 7...4 2 6...w=12.80..x=64.40...dd=112.20
7

R8 1 3 4 6...3 4 9...x=24.80
1

R9 1 2 4 6...4 1 7...x=14.20

R10 2 4 7 8...7 4 1...x=18.00..dd=15.00...p3=52.00...p4=896.00
8
.......................
Beula
R1 1 2 3 4...4 1 3...w=9.00..x=31.80..tri=75.40
1

R2 1 2 6 8...8 1 5...w=10.80..x=25.40..dd=72.00
6

R3 2 3 4 6...6 3 4 2..hard chalk wins...sup=62.60..p3=98.40
4**

R4 4 5 6 7...4 6 1...x=25.40..p3=81.20

R5 3 4 5 7...7 should be tuff but might be bet down..
....4 7 6...x=12.60...

R6 2 6 8 9...2 6 3...x=29.20
6

R7 2 7 9 10...2 4 10...p3=31.60
10

R8 1 6 7 8...7 4 9...w=25.00
1/8***keep eye on 3...this race could be huge pays

R9 1 2 3 4...1 3 8...x=39.00...dd=60.20...p3=87.40...p4=162.80
2

THIS WAS A HUGE DAY at Philly, a VERY GOOD day at Tampa with that P4
and a Medium day at Beula. Hope you had some winners...pj

 

[trytrytry]

wow! what a day. good work.



do you actually suggest making 4 x 4 x4 rolling pick 3's in every race you can with these picks? and 4 horse tri boxes in each race, and 4 horse EX boxes and bet all of them to win, and 4 x 4 rolling doubles in each race! That is just crazy you will be out of money in a week!



how do you wager on these selections?

 

[Labeeb]

I've been wondering the same thing. MY head spins when I see the picks with recaps.

 

[pigjockey]

wow! what a day. good work.



do you actually suggest making 4 x 4 x4 rolling pick 3's in every race you can with these picks? and 4 horse tri boxes in each race, and 4 horse EX boxes and bet all of them to win, and 4 x 4 rolling doubles in each race! That is just crazy you will be out of money in a week!



how do you wager on these selections?

I never (or rarely) make a 4 horse box unless all of them are overlays.
My whole point here is to get the races down to a 4 horse field and for the most part that works for me. From those 4, I can look at the prob's/will pays etc to determine if and how to bet the race. If I find value in the win then fine, or the exacta/dd..same thing...but normally I key or part wheel. The p3's are structured in many small tiks rather than one large tik. It's alot of work and most of this is determined by the public's view and how they back or don't back my nags in the race.
I pass alot of races due to my personal criteria for what is value, but I post all the results for each race because I know ther are many around that have no problems betting favorites and such. Also, if you can get the fields for every race down to 4 your chances of winning are much better (if you are right). And if one can't make money with every race being a four horse field (and then pick and choose the bets from that) then maybe this is not the game for that person imho.
You're not the first to call me crazy and I sure wouldn't tell anyone how to bet without knowing their particular situation but this has and does work for me on a daily/weekly/monthly/yearly basis. And I'm not broke yet.
PS...I was wondering how long it would take someone to ask these questions. Thanks...pj

 

[pigjockey]

I've been wondering the same thing. MY head spins when I see the picks with recaps.

For the spinning heads.
Yesterday I posted 3 tracks with a total of 29 races.
From my 4 picks, there was only 2 races one of them did not win.
There were 19 winning exactas. 7 winning tri's, 7 double digit winners,
8 daily doubles, 12 p3's and 2 p4's.
That is just one day. Go back and add up the previous days I have posted
and see the results. Please tell me you can make a determination from the
4 horses that fit your comfort zone and make a buck.
Sorry if this makes you wooozy...pj

 

[trytrytry]

I never (or rarely) make a 4 horse box unless all of them are overlays.
My whole point here is to get the races down to a 4 horse field and for the most part that works for me. From those 4, I can look at the prob's/will pays etc to determine if and how to bet the race. If I find value in the win then fine, or the exacta/dd..same thing...but normally I key or part wheel. The p3's are structured in many small tiks rather than one large tik. It's alot of work and most of this is determined by the public's view and how they back or don't back my nags in the race.
I pass alot of races due to my personal criteria for what is value, but I post all the results for each race because I know ther are many around that have no problems betting favorites and such. Also, if you can get the fields for every race down to 4 your chances of winning are much better (if you are right). And if one can't make money with every race being a four horse field (and then pick and choose the bets from that) then maybe this is not the game for that person imho.
You're not the first to call me crazy and I sure wouldn't tell anyone how to bet without knowing their particular situation but this has and does work for me on a daily/weekly/monthly/yearly basis. And I'm not broke yet.
PS...I was wondering how long it would take someone to ask these questions. Thanks...pj

I would never call you crazy! Just if you did all that I described that would be crazy!

I understand your above description. Im glad to see that you set your own LINE on these horses chances and compare to the tote to make your final decisions on what bets and pools to go aafter. Most people do not set their own value line and thus can not ever be sure they are on a overlay! good write up.

 

[smooth53_98]

What I usually do is play according to how strong I feel about a race... I am sure that pj would agree that some races where we put 2-4-6-7, sometimes the 2 is much the best and we'd key around it... and sometimes there is such a slim gap between the top 3 choices we may box it (also depending on the odds). I know that I generally approach each race differently in terms of what amouont am I willing to risk and how deep I will go with mutuels depending on odds.

Good Luck, and keep up the good work pj!

-smooth

 

[pigjockey]

What I usually do is play according to how strong I feel about a race... I am sure that pj would agree that some races where we put 2-4-6-7, sometimes the 2 is much the best and we'd key around it... and sometimes there is such a slim gap between the top 3 choices we may box it (also depending on the odds). I know that I generally approach each race differently in terms of what amouont am I willing to risk and how deep I will go with mutuels depending on odds.

Good Luck, and keep up the good work pj!

-smooth

yep...you got it