Percentages and Line Movements show nothing

[letsgohoosiers]

Sick of these Reverse Line Movement threads. They're worthless. All it does is sucker people into betting on games they have no idea about. You can't find value in the movement of a line.

18-23 (44%). That's the record you would have had Saturday if you took all the teams with reverse line movement.

Games where the line moved 2.5 points towards the team with less action went 0-1.
Games where the line moved 2.0 points towards the team with less action went 2-0.
Games where the line moved 1.5 points towards the team with less action went 2-3.
Games where the line moved 1.0 points towards the team with less action went 8-7.
Games where the line moved 0.5 points towards the team with less action went 6-12.

What about "fading the public"?

Teams with 20% or less of the public on them went 5-5.
Teams with 21-30% of the public on them went 13-15-1.
Teams with 31-40% of the public on them went 11-16-1.

That doesn't work either. That gives you a 29-36-2 (45%) record.

I'll keep tracking, I have a feeling this trend will continue.

 

[krk1030]

A few things.

1) 1 day of data does not mean anything.
2) If it did, 44% and 45% are winning numbers, just bet the opposite side.

 

[CharlieHustle1]

Also the gambling (sportsbook) business in Vegas has been in business for a long time. It's common sense to realize that they have not been in business this long and made the amount of $ they have by the consensus (public) winning.
-It is a proven fact that the consensus (public wagers) lose more than they win...

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Updated to include 1/25 games

1/25 Record: 3-3
Overall record: 21-26 (45%)

Games where the line moved 2.5 points towards the team with less action went 0-2.
Games where the line moved 2.0 points towards the team with less action went 2-0.
Games where the line moved 1.5 points towards the team with less action went 3-3.
Games where the line moved 1.0 points towards the team with less action went 8-7.
Games where the line moved 0.5 points towards the team with less action went 8-14.

Fading the public

Teams with 20% or less of the public on them went 6-7.
Teams with 21-30% of the public on them went 14-21-2.
Teams with 31-40% of the public on them went 12-18-1.

1/25 record: 3-10-1
Overall record: 32-46-3 (41%)

 

[GimmeDattt]

Good thread. I hope you keep this up. I don't agree completley but I do think everyone will do better by ignoring public % and studying the lines like a fucking scientist.

 

[papicker]

sorry think this is a useless thread unless you track games that the public bets on such as espn, acc fsn games, or cbs or abc weekend games. public doesnt touch games like wofford vs furman, so when ur book says 75% on wofford then they are probably a good bet since its more sharper action.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

sorry think this is a useless thread unless you track games that the public bets on such as espn, acc fsn games, or cbs or abc weekend games. public doesnt touch games like wofford vs furman, so when ur book says 75% on wofford then they are probably a good bet since its more sharper action.

Good idea. Another thing to track.

Public games: Games with more than 10,000+ bets placed:

Reverse Line Movement: 6-6 (50%)
Fading The Public: 5-15-1 (25%)

Non-Public games: Games with less than 10,000 bets placed:

Reverse Line Movement: 8-14 (36%)
Fading The Public: 25-30-2 (45%)

 

[bookieskatrina]

fact??

Also the gambling (sportsbook) business in Vegas has been in business for a long time. It's common sense to realize that they have not been in business this long and made the amount of $ they have by the consensus (public) winning.
-It is a proven fact that the consensus (public wagers) lose more than they win...

show me those stats!! Vegas makes money on greed and desperation that is it. They even the money out with the line. Com on man. In there perfect world there would be no public lean. That goes against everything they are trying to accomplish with the line. Public loses because they have no money management. They get greedy when they are up "I am playing with house money" mentality and scramble to get even when they are down. Thats it.

 

[kingking]

thanks very much for taking the time to post this imformation hoosiers.

 

[CharlieHustle1]

show me those stats!! Vegas makes money on greed and desperation that is it. They even the money out with the line. Com on man. In there perfect world there would be no public lean. That goes against everything they are trying to accomplish with the line. Public loses because they have no money management. They get greedy when they are up "I am playing with house money" mentality and scramble to get even when they are down. Thats it.

Ok you're right... Vegas probably loses more bets than they win.

 

[IrishTim]

Great post, letsgohoosiers. Agree completely. People seem to way overthink games. Remember it's college kids. I'm currently in college and I see first hand how some of these athletes live. You can crunch all the numbers you want but sometimes you need to go on initial feeling and simply the better team.

 

[bookieskatrina]

Missed the point!

Ok you're right... Vegas probably loses more bets than they win.

The objective in Sports gambling is to have even money on each side. Do you disagree? Good that is what I thought. Vegas makes a great deal of money on the vig. You have to hit over 55% to cover the vig. That is only if you bet the same amount each game. Guess what? Never ever happens. Think back a bit on your past wagering experience. Have you ever been down 4 units and then bam I have one to make it up. Well, you miss and now your 55% needed wins just went to 70% to make up for the greed or desperation.

Peace

 

[MetsFan44]

Hoosiers, the whole idea of reverse line movement is a majority of the public is on one side yet the line moves the opposite direction of the public's wager. That is a true RLM. Your stats above mean nothing, I have been betting RLM for awhile now and Saturday you are completely wrong with your documented stats. I had been contributing to HogsFan8's thread until he started adding a few more of his personal theories to it.

Here is Saturdays RLM results:

Memphis/Tenn Under Winner
Kentucky/Bama Under Winner
Elon U Winner
Towson Over Winner
Auburn Winner
Pennsylvania Loss
E. Michigan Loss

Thats 5-2 on Saturday with RLM with 70% of public on one side and the line had moved 1 full point in the opposite direction. 11-6 on the week. RLM works, not everyday but it works, there is a reason the Public loses on a consistant basis

 

[MetsFan44]

sorry think this is a useless thread unless you track games that the public bets on such as espn, acc fsn games, or cbs or abc weekend games. public doesnt touch games like wofford vs furman, so when ur book says 75% on wofford then they are probably a good bet since its more sharper action.

The sharp action is on the team with the Reverse line movement. There is a reason the line moves the opposite direction yet the majority of the action is on the other side. Sharp money is betting the line to move the other way while the public still remains on the other side. This has worked for years in College FB and BB. These are the 2 sports that sharps make a living wagering on.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Hoosiers, the whole idea of reverse line movement is a majority of the public is on one side yet the line moves the opposite direction of the public's wager. That is a true RLM. Your stats above mean nothing, I have been betting RLM for awhile now and Saturday you are completely wrong with your documented stats. I had been contributing to HogsFan8's thread until he started adding a few more of his personal theories to it.

Here is Saturdays RLM results:

Memphis/Tenn Under Winner
Kentucky/Bama Under Winner
Elon U Winner
Towson Over Winner
Auburn Winner
Pennsylvania Loss
E. Michigan Loss

Thats 5-2 on Saturday with RLM with 70% of public on one side and the line had moved 1 full point in the opposite direction. 11-6 on the week. RLM works, not everyday but it works, there is a reason the Public loses on a consistant basis

If you're using Hog's RLM, doesn't that mean you don't bet on over/unders? Why include it in record? That would make your bets 2-2.

My stats are what they are, I'm not manipulating anything. I use Pinnacle's open and closing lines because that's the only thing that is free on SportsInsights

24-Jan 80 595*St Joseph's 12569 89% -9.5 -8.5 -1 WIN
24-Jan 85 669*Tennessee Chat 2867 85% -3.5 -2.5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 63 663*Coll Charleston 3224 80% -6 -5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 67 657*Utah State 9692 75% -9 -8 -1 WIN
24-Jan 53 561*Western Michigan 1956 74% -4 -3 -1 WIN
24-Jan 67 630*Texas 14826 70% -13 -12 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 86 684*Austin Peay 1442 71% -9.5 -8 -1.5 LOSS

That's 3-4 on the RLM games that were 70% or more with at least 1 point movement the other way for Saturday. So if you're fading, you go 4-3. Woo hoo.

 

[MetsFan44]

Im not using Hogs RLM in its entirety the theory of RLM has been around for awhile and has worked. I recently shifted gears to using the 3 books that allow the most money wagered per game with the quickest line moves and started using 70% public numbers. Totals have been hitting alot. Hogs has his own angles he is working and it has worked for him in the past. I have been following strictly RLM for awhile and it works but it has to be a overwhelming RLM (more than just one book, 3 seems to work well) If your using just one book and getting lines updated every 30 minutes than your stats that you are keeping will not be accurate. You cant go by the closing lines either because there are many reasons why lines move before gametime, and sharp money being played is usually not one of them. Eastern Michigan was a shaky play because there were not alot of wagers on that game, that is one of the things Im also looking at

 

[MetsFan44]

Just dont shoot down the therory without having the proper access to all the numbers. Read some of the articles on Sportsinsights, they use different criteria for their "Sharp Bets" but its the same angle. If you go back the past few years and see in College FB and BB this system works very well. Not trying to bash you at all, just wanting to keep everyone aware that this does work and is very profitable, and that the numbers that you have above dont really mean much in respect to RLM. Looks more like fading public numbers, which are not the same thing.

 

[MetsFan44]

If you're using Hog's RLM, doesn't that mean you don't bet on over/unders? Why include it in record? That would make your bets 2-2.

My stats are what they are, I'm not manipulating anything. I use Pinnacle's open and closing lines because that's the only thing that is free on SportsInsights

24-Jan 80 595*St Joseph's 12569 89% -9.5 -8.5 -1 WIN
24-Jan 85 669*Tennessee Chat 2867 85% -3.5 -2.5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 63 663*Coll Charleston 3224 80% -6 -5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 67 657*Utah State 9692 75% -9 -8 -1 WIN
24-Jan 53 561*Western Michigan 1956 74% -4 -3 -1 WIN
24-Jan 67 630*Texas 14826 70% -13 -12 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 86 684*Austin Peay 1442 71% -9.5 -8 -1.5 LOSS

That's 3-4 on the RLM games that were 70% or more with at least 1 point movement the other way for Saturday. So if you're fading, you go 4-3. Woo hoo.

WHere is the Arkansas/Auburn game???? Arkansas opened up at -5 and went off at -3.5 with almost 80% on Arkansas, Auburn blew them out. If your going to post stats lets get ALL of them. Plus thats only one sportsbook as well....this needs to be an overwhelming line move, not just at one book

 

[MetsFan44]

If you're using Hog's RLM, doesn't that mean you don't bet on over/unders? Why include it in record? That would make your bets 2-2.

My stats are what they are, I'm not manipulating anything. I use Pinnacle's open and closing lines because that's the only thing that is free on SportsInsights

24-Jan 80 595*St Joseph's 12569 89% -9.5 -8.5 -1 WIN
24-Jan 85 669*Tennessee Chat 2867 85% -3.5 -2.5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 63 663*Coll Charleston 3224 80% -6 -5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 67 657*Utah State 9692 75% -9 -8 -1 WIN
24-Jan 53 561*Western Michigan 1956 74% -4 -3 -1 WIN
24-Jan 67 630*Texas 14826 70% -13 -12 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 86 684*Austin Peay 1442 71% -9.5 -8 -1.5 LOSS

That's 3-4 on the RLM games that were 70% or more with at least 1 point movement the other way for Saturday. So if you're fading, you go 4-3. Woo hoo.

And Hoosiers, those games you posted are wins/losses with the teams that you have stated. RLM would be going against the posted team. The line was moving to indicate sharp action on the other team. So that would be 4-3 and add the Auburn game we are at 5-3. So WOO HOO you are wrong again. So lets learn how it works as well before you bash it. Maybe your numbers at the top are completely wrong, rework them and see where your at then.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

My Dad had a book 25 years, I know pretty well what goes on. The smart way to make money is indeed to fade the public. We had a few sharps that understood this even years ago. They wouldn't call and ask what games are you heavy on, they would call and ask what games were we writing the most tickets on. Those games they would play the other side. You can have a few whales that will pretty much balance you out even if you write a lot of tickets on one side of a game. Not the money you want to fade, it's the public, the two are often not the same.