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Systematrix

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Joined
Sep 21, 2004
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435
12-6-1 on big ncaaf plays this year.the college hoops are my best sport and hopefully i will deliver for my forum friends. but it is too early for it, so we will stay with college pigskin for two more weeks.


tulsa moneyline is my best play this week and also my WAC game of the year.this will also be my highst bet this season (*15 units). im very glad to see a great capper like sixth sense being on the same side in this game.this play is both pro tulsa and against lat. let me start with lat. this is a classic letdown/lookahead spot for la tech. something like fsu against clemson last week (i had 2 units on clemson + pts and 1 unit on clemson moneyline but didnt post it, so i dont count it here.)they just beat smu convincingly in a revenge game and they have another revenge game next week against rice. so this game is a flat spot vs revenge game for lat, in between two revenge games.this is also there 3 rd road game in there last 4 and believe it or not, there 7th road game in last 10. they are getting outrushed on the road regularly and being a grass team they are only 2-5 ats in there last 7 on turf as well as 4-8 su and ats in there last 12 on turf.tulsa, on the other end, is playing there last home game this season and this is a home comming for them after two road games (they won both ). they are also 3-1 su and 3-0-1 ats in revenge games this year.and you better believe they want a revenge in this one as there loss to lat was there worst loss last year (9:53). last time la tech won two in a row was in mid septembre (week 3)when they beat michigan state (playing without j.smoker). they are 0-8 ats in last eight as favored when outrushed and tulsa is 5-1 su and 4-1-1ats when outrushing there opponent (perfect this year ats). and yes, i give an edge to tulsa on rushing.they improved a lot from last year in that departement and they are facing a team that has been outrushed in there last 5 on turf ( 91 ryds for : 218 ryds against).tulsa averages well over 5 yds per carry in there last 8 games and that great, especially against a team like lat that allowed over 6 yds per carry two times in there last 5 games. actually both teams run the ball effectively (while tulsa runs more often than lat). uril parrish is out, but this tulsa team has some other people to run against lat and i think they are all capable of doing a good job. last week they were playing without uril as well but they stil rushed for 206 yds on only 38 carries against rice.

TULSA moneyline *15 units BIGGEST BET OF THE YEAR


another favorite in a flat spot this week is clemson. and i'm going with duke. last week it was clemson who benefited from a huge flat spot for fsu, and now its there turn to give it away against a team they are supposed to beat,...well, i think it wont be that easy. especially because duke has proven to be a taugh opponent in this spot. just ask georgia tech, tennessee, ncst and maryland.this is a well coached football team. they run the ball well, they dont turn the ball over too often, and they have nothing to lose here.,.actually, they play with that in mind all season long. but clemson is the team that just won there biggest game of the year, and they dont feel like it was a "dangerous sandwich game" for fsu. well, i think it was. and i'm sure many of you will agree with me.they barely edged duke last year 34:31 while being humiliated running wise (duke 158: clems 59). they had the upper hand passing wise but they stil allowed 310 pass. yds against duke on only 24 completions.next week they are at scarolina and it wont be easy there,...there big play wr airese currie is questionable. they are 0-3 in last 3 off a win.and they will not cover.

DUKE +14 for *10 units.

and my third play is a five unit play. it is too late and i'm tired so just a short writeup.toledo at home, toledo off bye, toledo vs n.illinois. enough said!

TOLEDO $line for *5 units

your comments are welcome.gl everyone. ptw.
 

Systematrix

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
435
toledo at home ?

23-1 su and 14-6 ats, already winning as h dog ty vs Pitt.

toledo off bye ?

4-0 su and ats last 4 (reg season)

toledo vs n.ill. ?

6-0 su and ats.

toledo always good at home and n.illinois got exposed in there "only" big road game this season. i know they've beaten 'bama as well, but we all know that this years edition of 'bama aint that good at all. the wrong team is favored here, take toledo, guys.


my fourth play is nebraska +3 (buy ½). i see everyone on this board is on kansas state and altaugh i dont understand it, i stil love it. 99.99% of the time i'm in minority and thats probably why i win more than i lose.first of all, kansas state havent faced a team of nebraskas calibre in last 4 games (iowa state, baylor, kansas, colorado) and thats exactly where there 4 game winning streak started. prior to that, they had a 3 game losing streak agains the only solid opponents theyve faced all year (okie state, oklahoma and marshall). and finally, they had three wins to start the season against troy state (wtf?) and two non div. I-a schools Mcnesse state and Umass. So, someone please show me ONE solid opponent this kansas state team has beaten all year.i know nebraska did not have a lot of quality opponents either, but they did win all of there 6 home games and they also won against okie state, team that beat kast earlier this season.and they are getting points here, at home, in a series where the home team has won 6 straight times.nebraska also won last 5 at home vs kast and 7 of there last 10 over all. nebraska is ranked #3 in the country in rushing attempts and thats another point that goes against kansas state. kansas state is 2-3 su and 1-4 ats this year against the teams that had 38+ r.attempts against them and 6-0 su and 2-2 ats against the team that had fewer than 37 r.attempts. guess what, nebraska averages over 56 running attempts per game.they allowed 36 total points in there 6 home games this season.

NEBRASKA +3 (buy ½) for *7 units
 

CoachLT

"It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort o
Joined
Feb 2, 2002
Messages
5,649
Thanks, pay to win!LT
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Systematrix

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
435
you are welcome buddy and gl to u !

remember guys there is one flat spot play in the nfl tomorrow and it is carolina (already lost two games in this spot this season). so, pay to win will ride the redskins in that game. gl,ptw.
 

Systematrix

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
435
my fifth and last play today is also my only favorite today and it is utah state -7 against troy state.first of all, troy state is playing there 4th consecutive road game. they scored just over 7 ppg in there 7 road games this season and theyve been shot out three times in there last 4 road games (0-4 su/ats).they allow 174.7 rushing yards per game on the road and utah state rushes for over 150 yards pg at home this season.last year troy state was a 5-2 ats team over all and 4-0 su at home (12-1 at home prior to there gave vs utah state)when they met utah state and they stil lost by 3 as a 7½ points fav.utah state was on a 6 game road losing streak, also losing 10 of there previous 11 road games and they stil beat troy state on the road. that was actually utah state's only road win last year (they lost @mdtst just after beating up on troy).this year they play troy state at home where they are 9-1 su and 6-1 ats lately, and 3-0 su/ats as home favs this year beating there opponents by an avg score of 39½:10.utah state is playing there final home game this year and they are looking to win this game for there fans.troy state has 10 turnovers against 4 for there opponents in there last three road games and they forced only 5 turnovers in there last 4 games, compared to 20 turnovers in previous six games this year.utah state has three turnovers against 10 for there opponents in there last 2 home games.

UTAH STATE -7 for *7 units
 

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