are you kidding me! since when does jon fitch merit being a -365 fav over a talent like thiago? granted he has only 1 ufc fight but pure fight fans know he is very dangerous here. this was at 260 earlier and im sure closer to fight day it will drop a little more but this is a very live doggie.
Thiago really looked pretty bad against Kos but caught him with a "lucky punch" but his stand up looked pretty awful as i recall. Thiago has only knocked out one other guy & it was a TKO on a (knee injury) so stand up isn't really his game, he's known for his ground game.
Fitch has beaten good ground fighters (Gono, Diego, Carneiro, Fiorivanti, Larson) & has beaten stand up guys too (Burkman when he was good, Alves) & GSP couldn't finish him so I actually think that line is about right or just a touch low.
I was hoping for a -200 to -250 line for Fitch based on Thiago's win over Kos
Fitch has beaten good ground fighters (Gono, Diego, Carneiro, Fiorivanti, Larson) & has beaten stand up guys too (Burkman when he was good, Alves) & GSP couldn't finish him so I actually think that line is about right or just a touch low.
I was hoping for a -200 to -250 line for Fitch based on Thiago's win over Kos
The Kos KO was impressive to me for the simple fact that Kos went in to that fight with his back against the wall after being dismantled by Alves. That being said, I think Fitch's experience will kill Thiago. There are just so many more betting options available that it is best to stay on the sideline for a fight like this.
he looked pretty pedestrian in some other videos i saw of him....but,who knows?....maybe he`s one of these guys that just wins.....
personally,i think fitch beats him like a rented mule(just my opinion)....i wouldn`t begrudge anyone taking those odds,though...i certainly wouldn`t lay the odds on fitch flat...
g.l.,guys..should be an excellent card...
