Parlays...

[Kwo]

I have a question for anyone who wants to take the time to explain.

In another post, which i hesitate to reference because I don't want to see a bunch of arguing here, another user referred to the potential advantages of using parlays (two-team, I believe) to enhance profits.

I can't figure out a scenario where this would be effective. I am sure I'm missing something given the general knowledge level of the individual who posted it.

As far as I can tell, if you bet five games (A,B,C,D & E) and parlayed every two-team combination rather than straight bets on each game, you would come out behind, even hitting 60% of the games.

Here's my math and you can tell me where i'm wrong:

if A,B, & C win (60% of your nightly 5 bets), you have three parlays that win:

AB, AC & BC. If you had bet 11 to win 10, that would create 85.80 in winnings and -77 in losses, for a net win of $8.80.

If you had just bet straight the same total $110 on the five games involved, the same 60% would net you 60 (lay 22 to win 20 x 3) in winnings less 44 (22 per 2 losses) in losses for a net of $16.

What am i missing?

Thanks in advance to all you math gurus out there,

Kwo

 

[FairWarning]

Your best luck would be to play correlated parlays with a side and total from the same game. People have been hitting on Phoenix and over for example.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

In the thread you refer to, the claim was that the system hit at 70%, which would make the two team parlays very profitable. Considering the claimants start here, there is reason to be skeptical about his undocumented success.

 

[LakersFan4Life]

as far as the post above i agree phoenix is a great example if they cover they usually go off n go over.there are times i take my shots as im sure everyone does but u will go broke in a hurry u depend on parlays completely.another good example is if the bulls/bucks game was say -7 for the bulls and u thought they would win but wouldnt cover the spread you could do a parlay of bulls m.l and bucks +7.even that doesnt pay enough to make it worth wild.your best bet is to stay single bets and take your own shots at parlays when u think you want to.

 

[NorthernStar]

KWO I have just a short time then I have a family thing going on tonight. If you knew that you were going to go 3-2 everynight you would be better off playing straight plays only. But that is not how it works as we all know. You are going to have nights going 0-5 (lose the same amount (everything)), 1-4 (lose everything on parlays and win one bet on straights), 2-3 (lose more playing parlays ( win one parlay or two straight bets )), 3-2 ( do slightly better playing straights than parlays), 4-1 (win more playing parlays) 5-0 (win significantly more playing parlays). Hitting 60% in you example the 4-1 and 5-0 nights will bring your profits significantly higher and offset the larger loses on nights when you go 1-4, 2-3 or 3-2. I hope you get the idea. I can maybe explain better when I have more time. I also agree with the above post which implies there are positive corelations between teams and totals (vegas at one point wouldn't allow you to parlay sides and totals together on the same game), in the example of Phoenix, without looking it up I would think the games Phoenix has covered on the year they have gone over more than 50% of the time which would help give you a higher expected value because you are hitting a higher percent right. Ihope this helps and good luck on your plays. I will try to give you some more info later tonight.

 

[billthecop]

I'll do the math for you (hint, parlays are better)

Lets say you have 5 games per week for 10 weeks, or a total of 50 games. Lets also say you are willing to risk $1000 on these games. So you could straight bet all 50 games (at-110) for $20/$38. At a 60% win rate you would win 30 of the games and collect 30x$38=$1140 for a net of $140 or 14% ROR.

Now lets see how you'd do if you bet the same 50 games with the same $1000, but bet them in 2 team parlays at 13/5. If you round robined the 5 games each week you would have 10 parlays per week for 10 weeks or a total of 100 two-teamers at $10/$36. Of course the 100 parlays would cost the same $1000 as the straight bets.

At a 60% win rate you would win 36% of your parlays (60%x60%=36%). 36 winning parlays at $36=$1296 for a net of $296 or 29.6% ROR.

The key, of course, is hitting that 60% win rate, but if you can, parlays are for you! Goodluck

 

[NorthernStar]

Kwo; I wanted to give you a more indepth answer. If you flip a coin and heads is a winner and tails a loser and you are going to flip it 5 times you have 32 combinations. One in 32 times you get wwwww and one in 32 you get LLLLL. There are 5 times when you win 4 out of 5 and lose 4 out of 5. 10 times you will hit 2 out of 5 and 3 out of 5. That is the distribution of the 32 combinations. So it looks like 1-5-10-10-5-1. Whe you hit 60% on 32 plays your numbers shift to (starting with all of the 5 right going to all wrong) 2.48832- 8.2944 - 11.0592 -7.3728 - 2.4576 - 0.32768. That shift will bring your expected value up. Notice your chances of hitting all 5 increase by almost 2.5 times.

On money management, if you have heard of playing a % of bankroll, one of the problems is when you have more than one game going at the same time. lets assume you have a bankroll of $10,000 and you are playing 5% of your bankroll. First wager would be $500. Assuming you lost the first game, your bankroll would be $9,500 and your next wager should be $475, assume you loss that one also. Your bankroll would be $9,025 and the next wager would be $451.25. Assume you loss, now you have had 3 loss and a bankroll of $8573.75. Most people who play a % of bankroll and have say three noon football games would play each game for $500. If the go 0-3 they have a bankroll of $8,500 or $75 worst. The same thing happen on the reverse side when they go 3-0. Bankroll should be $11426.55 instead it is only $11363.63. Their bankroll goes up but not as much as if they had bet the games in sequence. The way to better mimic the games going in a squence is to lower the initial $500 straight bet to (I am going off memory because it varies with the number of teams going at the same time) 75% or $375 on each of the three teams. Then play 3 two team parlays at $100 each. If you go 0-3 you have a bankroll of $8575 just like they were played in order. If you go 3-0 you have a bankroll $11,802 which is better than if they had been played in order. I suggest reducing your straight bets and playing some sort of combination of parlays. As always good luck!!