PARLAYS for Suckers

[cloverleaf]

The lure of the odds on parlay bets is more than most people can resist, but I will promise you this...if you play 10 games a day throw in 3 or 4 parlays, your bookie will send a limo for you to make sure he gets your bets down. The reason parlays are 'sucker' bets is simple...they do not pay the correct odds, and even if you win the number of parlays that you should win, YOU WILL STILL LOSE MONEY!

Consider this example: To make it simple, we'll start with the premise that on each game you have a 50/50 chance of winning, so you have a 50% chance of winning the first play. The odds drop to 25% (.50X,50) on your second play, 12.5% (.50X.50X.50) on the third play, 6.25% (.50X.50X.50X.50) on the fourth play and so on until the odds on hitting 10 out of 10 reach an incredible 1023-1.

The correct odds of winning 3 consecutive plays are 12.5% or 1 of 8, which is 7-1 odds against winning the third game. A 3 game parlay pays only 5-1 so you are beaten before you start. The more games you parlay, the larger the difference becomes between the odds against winning and the payoff odds, until you get to that 10 game example I gave above, where the odds against winning are 1023-1, and the payoff is only 175-1.

Beware of the PARLAY bet! :>(

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Spot on Clover. Let's take a simple two team parlay. Team A and Team B. Here is what can happen. 1. Both can win. 2. Both can lose. 3. Team A can win and team B can lose. 4. Team B can win and team A can lose. So the true odds are 3-1 against you hitting a two team parlay, or 15 to 5. You only get paid 13/5 for the wager, which means that you are giving up 2 15ths or 13.3%, more than the standard 10% vig on a straight wager. Parlay and teaser bets are sucker plays. The more teams you play, the worse the odds are. Some people will not believe this, but Parlyas and Teaser wagers are what pay for those pretty cocktail servers and neon light that the casino's have.

 

[5-0SAT]

different strokes for different folks ... i still play the parlay ... gl in '11

 

[russ1945]

Every year the topic of parlays comes up. Pros and Cons, the “true” odds, yada yada yada. Ask 5-0 Sat if he likes parlays. Some people make their money on parlays. But…..that does not mean they are for everyone.

You cannot argue with a purist about “true odds” but they are way better than buying a lottery ticket. If you bet Team A, Team B, and Team C each for $110.00 to win $100.00 you would be risking $330.00 to win $300.00. If you win all 3 you get $300.00. If you win 2 out of 3 you win $200.00 and lose $110 and you get $90.00. If you lose all three you are out $330.00.

Now if you wagered a straight 3 team parlay using those 3 teams you only collect if all 3 teams win ATS. But at 6 to 1 you would collect $600.00. You are out $100.00 with any other scenario unless all teams tie and you are betting where ties do not lose. If you missed 2 out of 3 you would only lose $100.00 compared to the $110.00 you would be out straight betting them. There are also round robins and other scenarios .

Now is it the wisest thing in the world to bet parlays, should they be your only choice of betting, not only no but hell no. But, somewhere someplace there is someone who makes a living betting nothing but parlays.

I bet some moneyline parlays, usually small bets, but they often pay off at 200 to 1 or more and yes I have hit one. There again… but, I usually only bet $10 or so.

Are parlays a solution or a problem. I would say they have bailed some players out of the hole and they have buried many more. But I would never dismiss them as stupid when you hit one. Just don’t plan on making a living betting them. I work them into my game plan every week but that is just me. I learned to bet at the race track betting exactas, trifectas, etc. and it has always been my philosophy to bet a little to win a lot. Betting parlays is probably just like consuming alcohol and in that sense I would liken betting to driving, do it in moderation and know when to say no.

 

[Albatross]

I play a 5 on 5 parlay card every week. I made a few hundred last year when it was all said and done. Play them for fun, but could never put real coin on them.

 

[jscdynasty]

The lure of the odds on parlay bets is more than most people can resist, but I will promise you this...if you play 10 games a day throw in 3 or 4 parlays, your bookie will send a limo for you to make sure he gets your bets down. The reason parlays are 'sucker' bets is simple...they do not pay the correct odds, and even if you win the number of parlays that you should win, YOU WILL STILL LOSE MONEY!

Consider this example: To make it simple, we'll start with the premise that on each game you have a 50/50 chance of winning, so you have a 50% chance of winning the first play. The odds drop to 25% (.50X,50) on your second play, 12.5% (.50X.50X.50) on the third play, 6.25% (.50X.50X.50X.50) on the fourth play and so on until the odds on hitting 10 out of 10 reach an incredible 1023-1.

The correct odds of winning 3 consecutive plays are 12.5% or 1 of 8, which is 7-1 odds against winning the third game. A 3 game parlay pays only 5-1 so you are beaten before you start. The more games you parlay, the larger the difference becomes between the odds against winning and the payoff odds, until you get to that 10 game example I gave above, where the odds against winning are 1023-1, and the payoff is only 175-1.

Beware of the PARLAY bet! :>(

It all makes sense now... gonna stay away from those

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Everyone knows stories about the people who hit huge parlays, just like people who win the lottery. I personally do not play them, because I am in this for the long run, and I look for the best lines possible. But that is just my opinion. I play the odds. This is why I play "middles", which to me is a huge moneymaker every year. If you bet $100 on a middle, you are risking $220, at the standard vig. The worst you can do is lose $10.00 because someone is going to cover. If you hit the middle, you win $200.00. That is 20/1. If you can hit just one middle, you can afford to lose 19 others and still be ahead of the game. I like those odds.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

The OP is referring to parlays where the teams are all -110 odds or ATS Lines in general, Yes, I agree those are tough to hit

However, there are some parlays where you can turn a -200 or a -300 or a -400 into a -110 play

Last year, I turned a -400 SU moneyline team into a -110 ATS play by parlaying it with teams that had massive advantages where all they had to do was win SU and NOT ATS (-2000, and -3000 moneylines basically) That strategy is more effective in non-conference play, Not as effective in conference play IMO since there are more upsets SU

The risk is minimal since it is only one play, Granted, you don't win as much (just 1 ATS play), but the answer is it depends like most things in life (Not everything fits in a nice pretty little box, basically. in general does NOT mean EVERYTHING)

 

[Conan]

The OP is referring to parlays where the teams are all -110 odds or ATS Lines in general, Yes, I agree those are tough to hit
However, there are some parlays where you can turn a -200 or a -300 or a -400 into a -110 play
Last year, I turned a -400 SU moneyline team into a -110 ATS play by parlaying it with teams that had massive advantages where all they had to do was win SU and NOT ATS (-2000, and -3000 moneylines basically) That strategy is more effective in non-conference play, Not as effective in conference play IMO since there are more upsets SU
The risk is minimal since it is only one play, Granted, you don't win as much (just 1 ATS play), but the answer is it depends like most things in life (Not everything fits in a nice pretty little box, basically. in general does NOT mean EVERYTHING)

Sometimes I play a parlay along those lines. I'll take a side wager -110 and parlay it to a ML wager @-400. That effectivelly changes the odds of my straight wager from -110 to +115 which wipes out the juice factor (and then some) by averaging in the extra ML wager. Just don't pick a bad ML wager to use as a "kicker" with the side wager. I know of a few ML players that like to bet chalk often and they may not lose a single wager for 2 or 3 years. But that takes some real discipline to last that long.

 

[HottyToddy]

I play a 25 buck 4 or 5 gamer every week.... If I hit thats some good cash... If I lose oh well it was a 25 dollar parlay... Side note I hit 2 parlays last week in baseball... A 5 gamer and a 4 gamer! Im still smiling

 

[CrapGame]

I like Parlays.

When you are hot that can be great. I separate those plays from my ATS plays. I end up about 3 of 15 in parlay plays.

There is no way you can win long term with parlays.

 

[8ate]

Actually 13/5 payout is pretty close to parlaying -110 srt8 bets; problem is you might not get the best lines in the same shop; and the net effect is to make gamblers risk higher if you do not decrease your wagering unit when you bet parlays; 2 team and 3 team parlays can be used judiciously; imho..>>

g;l

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Again, it is a matter of personal choice, like all gaming is. You know the old saying: "I'd rather be lucky than good".

 

[HottyToddy]

Id rather be good and get some lucky breaks

 

[cloverleaf]

Bottom line is that each individual has to establish his/her own personal goals for sports wagering. Determine whether you want to wager just for fun or are you out to make a profit. Never, never underestimate the importance of those differences. Once you have determined which way you want to play, don't try to mix the two. You can only do one or the other.

You must know exactly what you expect from sports wagering, and then you must play accordingly. There is a right way and a wrong way to bet on sporting events. The dirty secret is the vast majority of players lose. Let me say that again....the majority of players lose.

Good luck.........................