Parlaying huge favorites - myths and misconceptions

[ewitty]

Many people parlay huge favorites, believing it to be a way to be on the side of plays that have a high probability of cashing while at the same time avoiding laying huge juice. They forget that taking a parlay is almost always more expensive than taking straight bets, because of the extra juice built into the parlay odds.

That is to say that you will pay more juice by making a 3-bet parlay rather than betting each game individually. Paying this extra juice would turn virtually every winning handicapper into a losing handicapper (see the betjam contest standings for an example of this).

Let's look at an example - Styz19's parlay from last night:

Parlay - Wash+1.5/SanJose/New Jersey+1.5 5 to win 11.36

This is a bet at +227, and must win at least 31% of the time to break even. So let us examine how often this play will actually win:

Wash+1.5 opened at Pinny at -245, and closed at -238 on a 20-cent line. That means 10 cents of juice were figured into the odds, so let's say that juice-free Wash+1.5 has an approx. -240, or approx. 70% chance of occurring.

Doing the same for SanJose, we see an opener of -135 and a closer of -152. let us assume a juice-free average of -140, or 58%.

Finally, New Jersey+1.5 opened at -270 and closed at -285 against 20-cent lines, so that would be juice-free -275, or 72%.

Please note these are not perfect numbers, and there is a better way to calculate the probability, but for our purposes this is close enough to the real number to illustrate the point.

The next step is to multiply all those probabilities to see the payout you SHOULD be getting on this parlay in order for it to break even:

0.7*0.58*0.72 = 29.23%

You can see that these 3 games will ALL win only 29.23% of the time, but they must win 31% of the time just to break even. This means this parlay is a long-term losing bet, and should be avoided by those looking to make money betting on sports.

Also, Vic is a nazi.

 

[Bushay]

Many people parlay huge favorites, believing it to be a way to be on the side of plays that have a high probability of cashing while at the same time avoiding laying huge juice. They forget that taking a parlay is almost always more expensive than taking straight bets, because of the extra juice built into the parlay odds.

That is to say that you will pay more juice by making a 3-bet parlay rather than betting each game individually. Paying this extra juice would turn virtually every winning handicapper into a losing handicapper (see the betjam contest standings for an example of this).

Let's look at an example - Styz19's parlay from last night:



This is a bet at +227, and must win at least 31% of the time to break even. So let us examine how often this play will actually win:

Wash+1.5 opened at Pinny at -245, and closed at -238 on a 20-cent line. That means 10 cents of juice were figured into the odds, so let's say that juice-free Wash+1.5 has an approx. -240, or approx. 70% chance of occurring.

Doing the same for SanJose, we see an opener of -135 and a closer of -152. let us assume a juice-free average of -140, or 58%.

Finally, New Jersey+1.5 opened at -270 and closed at -285 against 20-cent lines, so that would be juice-free -275, or 72%.

Please note these are not perfect numbers, and there is a better way to calculate the probability, but for our purposes this is close enough to the real number to illustrate the point.

The next step is to multiply all those probabilities to see the payout you SHOULD be getting on this parlay in order for it to break even:

0.7*0.58*0.72 = 29.23%

You can see that these 3 games will ALL win only 29.23% of the time, but they must win 31% of the time just to break even. This means this parlay is a long-term losing bet, and should be avoided by those looking to make money betting on sports.

Also, Vic is a nazi.

I agree. I've explored this angle relentlessly over the years and talked with many statisticians who also side with you on this one ewitty. Vic IS definatly a Nazi.

 

[VegasVic]

While I'm as guilty of this as anyone....(I have a weakness for betting 3 team teaser/parlays with totals), one of the greatest ways to knock juice down dramaticaly on big favorite parlays is to bet them on individual days.

For instance, match up two big favs on individual days using 5dimes', Matchbook, (or for those fortunate enough...Pinny's), reduced juice. By having several reduced juice books you can actually shop around and get the very best prices available at the time of day when they offer their most advantageous ROI.

sieg heil

 

[heart222]

Lets see here I use a simple system which I post here. I take the top 2 favorites and parlay them YTD + 14 units. I have a minimum requirement of 1 team being at least -175 so some days nothing to do. Saterday I missed Boston as Iwasout so Ihad the flyers and Det parlaid for even money and cashed it. Sometimes I do the PL but not often I recognize I get 4-5 to 1 but I am happier just cashing a little more often then not. What is happening that is discourgeing is earlier this year I was getting 1.3-1 type of return but lately its closer to 1-1 and sometimes slightly under. Still 3 1/2 months in + 14 units could be worse for a lazy part time handicapper. is whatIam doing a myth or a misconseption or just a reasonable way to bet? I am planning on doing same for baseball and insteads of PL will use first 5 innings as an alternitive as I think the studs should do better earlier. regards all heart222 go caps

 

[VegasVic]

Lets see here I use a simple system which I post here. I take the top 2 favorites and parlay them YTD + 14 units. I have a minimum requirement of 1 team being at least -175 so some days nothing to do. Saterday I missed Boston as Iwasout so Ihad the flyers and Det parlaid for even money and cashed it. Sometimes I do the PL but not often I recognize I get 4-5 to 1 but I am happier just cashing a little more often then not. What is happening that is discourgeing is earlier this year I was getting 1.3-1 type of return but lately its closer to 1-1 and sometimes slightly under. Still 3 1/2 months in + 14 units could be worse for a lazy part time handicapper. is whatIam doing a myth or a misconseption or just a reasonable way to bet? I am planning on doing same for baseball and insteads of PL will use first 5 innings as an alternitive as I think the studs should do better earlier. regards all heart222 go caps

Dude, as far as I’m concerned, if you’re up 14 units on the season, you’re my idol.

There is nothing wrong with your strategy….especially this year. All ewitty is saying is the juice can make the play a negative expected value investment. However considering the high percentage of large favorites, (-170 or higher), cashing this year you jumped on the money train at the right time. It could turn around or this trend of heavy favs covering could last all season long. Either way, kudos on your system and in being disciplined to sticking with it.

go caps

 

[ewitty]

great question heart. Obviously if you are making money doing what you're doing, keep doing it! That said, if the bets you're making have a negative expectation, you can not win in the end, no matter how well you manage your money.

It really all depends on what you're trying to accomplish. If you're just betting for fun, and you want to see a lot of winners while avoiding paying huge juice, then parlays are the way to go. If you're looking to make money, then you should usually avoid them.

 

[barman]

"Vic is a Nazi"

boy oh boy...stereotypes

Vic is just a regular ol' losin' homeboy like the rest of us so far in this bloodbath of a season

Though I hear brown is his favorite shirt color

 

[JOH]

sieg heil

F U Hitler. (responding for ewitty) :nohead:

 

[heart222]

I have a question about negitive expectations. I understand it at the poker table where calling a bet is not a good percentage play.
Talking about hockey the question is parlays vs PL which has a poorer ne and why? I am not sure how to approach the math on that issue. I would appreciate your thoughts. thanks heart222

 

[ewitty]

heart, look at my original post for an example:

Parlay - Wash+1.5/SanJose/New Jersey+1.5 5 to win 11.36

Parlay odds = +227

single game odds = play1 -240 / play2 -140 / play3 -275

multiply single game odds together (use breakeven percentages): 0.7*0.58*0.72=0.2932

convert this answer to american odds: 29.32% = +242

let's compare the two numbers:

odds given on parlay: +227
fair odds for same parlay: +242

you can see that he was shorted 15 points on his parlay. You will notice that when you make parlays, you tend to lose approx. 4 cents in juice for each play in the parlay. A 3-teamer costs an average of 12 cents, a 4-teamer costs 16 cents, etc.

I hope this is clear. Please let me know if it's not.

 

[VegasVic]

F U Hitler. (responding for ewitty) :nohead:

time for a disclaimer....seig heil translates to hail victory, (vic victory)..... Not meant as an endorsement, (or in support), of anyone we might associate with the phrase.

 

[heart222]

thanks ewitty. If I understand you playing 3 sep -1.5 for example is better than a parlay because you pick up the .4 per game. thanks heart222

 

[ewitty]

That's right heart. Let's take the logic a little further:

Let's say you were going to risk $100 on that 3-team parlay. Further, let's assume that the games all start at different times. So game 1 starts at 3pm, game 2 starts at 7pm, and game 3 starts at 10:30pm.

If you were to take the parlay in the example above, you would be risking $100 at +227

However, let's say instead of taking the parlay, you put the $100 on game 1 (at -240). If that game wins, you take everything you won (including your original $100) and put it on game 2 at -140. If game 2 wins, you take everything and put it on game 3 at -275.

In this scenario, if all 3 games win, you would get the equivalent of the same parlay bet at +242. You have now recreated the parlay but given yourself an extra 15 cents! There is no difference between the two bets except for the extra juice.

 

[heart222]

Hi thank you. Only problem I have is I can bet the 7.30 game but am usually asleep by the 10.00 game :) thanks again.
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