According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson Analysis >>> The spread for this Monday Night Football contest originally opened at Packers -1 at BetMGM, and it hovered around that number until Thursday, when the line made the modest fence jump to Raiders -1, where it remains now. Likely contributing to that move was the expectation that QB Jimmy Garoppolo would be back under center for Vegas. And on Friday afternoon, the Raiders announced that Garoppolo cleared concussion protocol and will start Monday night. However, plain and simple, I don’t think the Raiders deserve to be favored in this contest regardless of Garoppolo’s presence. The Raiders sit at a record of 1-3, and quite frankly, they were incredibly fortunate to escape with their lone win in Week 1, as they scored just 17 points on 261 yards of total offense and still managed to beat the Broncos. The Raiders’ miserable offensive play quickly caught up with them in Week 2, though, and it certainly hasn’t gotten any better since. The Raiders have scored 18 points or less in all four of their games thus far, and they’ve already turned the ball over 10 times. They rank 25th in scoring at 15.5 points per game and 26th in total yardage at 282 yards per game. And while their defensive numbers may be a little bit padded thanks to a stellar performance against Denver, the Raiders defense has really struggled as well, having surrendered 28.3 points per game on 363 yards per game in Weeks 2 through 4. On the flip side, the Packers offense has also had its fair share of struggles over the last few weeks. Green Bay enters this contest following back-to-back lackluster offensive performances against the Saints and Lions. They scored 20 points or less and turned the ball over three times on the way to a 1-1 split. However, prior to that, I think it’s safe to say that this Packers team flashed far more potential in the first two weeks of the season than the Raiders have at any point with Garoppolo at QB. In Week 1, the Packers scorched the Bears by a score of 38-20, and in Week 2, they lost a heartbreaker to the Falcons 25-24, while keeping a clean sheet with zero turnovers in both affairs.
According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, Matt LaFleur is 17-10 ATS in night games since taking over as Packers head coach. That’s the eighth-best mark for any head coach over the last 20 years (out of 136). LaFleur has also excelled as an underdog. He is 16-6 ATS as a 'dog – 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 4-0 with Jordan Love. Since moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, the Raiders have posted home records of 11-15 SU and 13-13 ATS. The cat clearly isn’t fully out of the bag yet, as the Raiders enter this matchup as a short favorites, but this a really bad Las Vegas team. By no means are the Packers great, but at least their offense has somewhat of a pulse and their defense has managed to shut down weak opponents. The Packers worst offensive performance of the year so far (18 points) matches the Raiders season-best (18 points). I think we’ll see the road dog win this one outright with relative ease. My Bet The Packers +2 1/2
Score Prediction: Packers 27, Raiders 17
According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, Matt LaFleur is 17-10 ATS in night games since taking over as Packers head coach. That’s the eighth-best mark for any head coach over the last 20 years (out of 136). LaFleur has also excelled as an underdog. He is 16-6 ATS as a 'dog – 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 4-0 with Jordan Love. Since moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, the Raiders have posted home records of 11-15 SU and 13-13 ATS. The cat clearly isn’t fully out of the bag yet, as the Raiders enter this matchup as a short favorites, but this a really bad Las Vegas team. By no means are the Packers great, but at least their offense has somewhat of a pulse and their defense has managed to shut down weak opponents. The Packers worst offensive performance of the year so far (18 points) matches the Raiders season-best (18 points). I think we’ll see the road dog win this one outright with relative ease. My Bet The Packers +2 1/2
Score Prediction: Packers 27, Raiders 17
