Pac-12/West Coast Week 1

[Conan]

Stanford -27/SJSU
I'd better post this play before the value disappears (beyond 33) but this is the one play on the board out west that caught my eye the first time I saw it. Since Bookmaker and the Greek no longer accept US action, I was forced to open an account elsewhere. I pushed it through just to get this bet in at Stanford -20 but that is no longer possible. I still like it at 4 TD's because I think that will be covered by half time, easily. I researched SJSU and their lines (O+D) basically stink. If you give Andrew Luck time, you haven't a chance. I figure it will be all 2's in the game for the Cardinal by the 3rd quarter, so don't be lazy about betting this one, even though a back door is unlikely. I may hit it again when I see the first half lines. You might see 17 in which case betting the mortgage might be the best play of the day.

If Harbaugh was still coaching at Stanford, I'd bet this line at -38. He was known to have a lead foot but we'll see if the new coaches feel the same... I think so because David Shaw ran the offense for Harbaugh.

Possibly more to come but we'll take it slow for starters.

 

[5-0SAT]

you can't go wrong with that play ... safest play on the week 1 board imho ... gl in '11 Conan ... ope:

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree. I grabbed the -27 at the Hilton as soon as I could. That is a solid wager.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Best of luck this season CONAN.

 

[stander]

BOL Conan. Get those west coast coattails ready because there might be more than a few of us riding along!

 

[mws]

Bookmaker still takes US action.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Bookmaker still takes US action.

and they like to leave messages on your phone with a bunch of people talking in the background.

 

[MemphisRaines]

I try not to get too spooked by fishy lines or an overload of public support on one side, but those little inklings that raise the hairs on the back of your neck are still worth listening to...and I think this is one of those cases. If you just look at it on the surface, you see a BCS bowl winning school with the best player in the nation at home against a team that was maybe the worst in the FBS last year with a 1-12 record. Public is loaded up on Stanford, easily 80+ percent of the action on the Cardinal...yet you haven't seen the line move hardly at all from where it opened.

I'm not saying SJSU is the play, to the contrary I see no reason at all why Stanford shouldn't cover this line with ease. But how many times have we seen this situation before, the line that is so off, way too easy, public is hammering it...and some weird shit happens and everyone gets burned.

I have a rule that says public numbers are to be interpreted as a guideline, not a rulebook. Let going against the public strengthen one of your leans, not be its genesis. Likewise, don't let siding with the public discourage you from making a play, but perhaps it's wise not to load up on it. Tread carefully.

 

[GoSooners]

Conan...BOL this year my friend.

 

[Conan]

Bookmaker still takes US action.

Not from me!

http://www.bookmaker.com

 

[Conan]

Conan...BOL this year my friend.

GL2U2 GoSooners

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Not from me!

http://www.bookmaker.com

www.bookmaker.eu

It was my understanding that they still take U.S. action, but changed their domain name.

 

[Conan]

Thanks wellseasoned, I just found a hundred fifty bucks left in my account. Nice.
I camp out there every Sunday afternoon waiting on the opening lines.
The tradition lives! (as do my platinum benefits)

 

[SoonerBS]

I think Stanford is a good play, I don't know why it is so low to tell you the truth. I'm not impressed with SJSU unless they are playing Hawaii at home on a Friday night ESPN game.

 

[SoonerBS]

I think Stanford is a good play, I don't know why it is so low to tell you the truth. I'm not impressed with SJSU unless they are playing Hawaii at home on a Friday night ESPN game.

Hey! I just noticed they are playing one of those October 14th!! YES!!

 

[Conan]

I try not to get too spooked by fishy lines or an overload of public support on one side, but those little inklings that raise the hairs on the back of your neck are still worth listening to...and I think this is one of those cases. If you just look at it on the surface, you see a BCS bowl winning school with the best player in the nation at home against a team that was maybe the worst in the FBS last year with a 1-12 record. Public is loaded up on Stanford, easily 80+ percent of the action on the Cardinal...yet you haven't seen the line move hardly at all from where it opened.

I'm not saying SJSU is the play, to the contrary I see no reason at all why Stanford shouldn't cover this line with ease. But how many times have we seen this situation before, the line that is so off, way too easy, public is hammering it...and some weird shit happens and everyone gets burned.

I have a rule that says public numbers are to be interpreted as a guideline, not a rulebook. Let going against the public strengthen one of your leans, not be its genesis. Likewise, don't let siding with the public discourage you from making a play, but perhaps it's wise not to load up on it. Tread carefully.

Nobody understands the "all too obvious" play going down better than me. The best way I can counter this logic is by looking at the situation. What jumps out about this bet is that there is a tradition between these schools since their campuses are about 10 miles apart. Since Stanford woke up about 4-5 years ago, the've played SJSU with no love lost. They covered this number about 3/4 times since then. That's about how this bet shakes out. I give it about a 75% chance that Stanford will cover. I lean to a greater likelihood than that this time around because I think the first game out of the chute David Shaw will ask for more from his players than usual. The Cardinal has been massacring the cupcakes of late and that is about as comforting a trend that I can offer.

 

[WinOne]

Conan, I agree with you. Shaw's out to prove that HE was calling the plays in Harbaughs offense. He'll want to showcase his prize horse in Luck as well as letting his defense tee off on someone other than the second team in team scrimmages. What I am hearing is that their coaching staff and team, while they appreciate what Harbaugh did for them, they are looking to prove that what you saw on the field the last couple of years was effort from them and not all Jim Harbaugh.

 

[Conan]

It's been interesting to follow Harbaugh in his career. He has a way of getting under people's skin to his own benefit. I remember him calling USC the greatest team ever and that definitely got under Pete Carroll's skin... which set the stage for Harbaugh to have an upset win that year and a year later resulted in the biggest point spread SU win for a dog in CFB history. On top of that, in PC's final season, Harbaugh handed USC a loss by scoring more points against them at home than anyone ever has in the history of the school. (Now PC and Harbaugh are opposite one another again in the NFC west.)

At the University of San Diego before Harbaugh came to the Pac-10, he took the Torerros from a cellar dweller to 2 league championships before the Stanford alums became fed up with Walt Harris and hired Harbaugh. I just KNEW it was only a matter of time until Harbaugh would do something significant at Stanford. I was expecting a NC to be honest, and had the schedule favored the Cardinal last year over the Ducks, that may have been the case. But as it is, going from 1-11 before Harbaugh to 12-1 with a #4 BCS rank and a complete dusting of VT in the Orange Bowl to polish off his brief career speaks volumes about his coaching ability. But a coach is no better than the men he hires to help him and fortunately Stanford has been left with 80% of what Harbaugh put together in that regard.

Harbaugh was a Michigan QB and played for the Indianapolis Colts in one Super Bowl. Though he seemed to have his roots in the Big-10. he and his family chose to live on the west coast when he was offered the San Diego job. Harbaugh actually attended high school in Palo Alto where he later coached for Stanford so maybe that's where his heart was instead of Michigan. Lucky for Stanford that Richrod was hired a year before Harbaugh became available but sometimes that's what happens when you go for the big name instead of the guy with the biggest desire to make himself known and move up the ladder.

As it now stands, Harbaugh has taken on the job of HC for the 49ers opposite Al Davis on the east side of the bay. I expect to see big things from San Francisco soon. Harbaugh is a winner. That's all there is to it. It will be interesting to see if the 49ers make a play for the services of Andrew Luck or if Harbaugh sticks with Kaepernick as his budding star QB. I know Harbaugh thought the world of Luck so we will see what develops.

 

[mws]

San Jose should be much better this year if they can avoid the kind of injuries that devastated last year's team. However, I don't think they can stay within the number with a QB making his first start in this game. I like Stanford -27 as well.

 

[REDEYE]

Got me some Stanford at -26 1/2 at the Venitian this past weekend. love this play. Conan, saw your boy WC Bias at the Bash, pretty cool dude.