Pac 10 Week 8

[UoweDucks]

18-14, +6.5 units (56%) YTD
2-2, +1 unit LW

USC -42 @ WSU: I don't need to get into this one so much. The cougs are in an enormous world of hurt here. Loebenstall went down and the cougs are dangerously thin at QB at this point. There is very real dissent amongst the ranks at WSU now. Wulff has lost this crew and there are questions as to whether or not he ever had them. His lack of leadership in the Roof, and Hicks disciplinary issues showed his team that for all his talk about togetherness and sacrifice he was no different than the past regime. The Trojans will name their score here and my bet is that there is no way Petey names it less than the posted spread. 1.5 unit

OSU -14 @ UW: UW has had this game circled all year after the perceived cheap shot that sent Locker to the hospital in Corvallis last yr. Problem is these pups have been nuetered. The coach is running a ghost ship that lacks leadership, speed or any true grit. I'll take the beavs who have been clicking well on offense and defense. That said I think this line is just a bit too high. I really hope to get this under 2 TD's. I think the oddsmaker is a bit too bullish on the orange and black.

CAL @ AZ (Pick): Damn, I was really hoping that AZ would take care of business vs Stanford so I could get some points here. I mentioned in last weeks thread that I was setting up a big play on CAL this week. Arizona has been touting their defense all year as if no one could actually read their schedule. A complete joke. AZ has made hay vs a bunch of panzies. Cal will be by far the most complete offense and defense that they will have faced. Cal coming off a bye may get back their top weapon in Best and should be well rested and ready to taket the mantle as the second best team in the conference. Tempted to lay more but for now, 1 unit

Stanford/UCLA: later.

 

[Cappin'Guru]

18-14, +6.5 units (56%) YTD
2-2, +1 unit LW

USC -42 @ WSU: I don't need to get into this one so much. The cougs are in an enormous world of hurt here. Loebenstall went down and the cougs are dangerously thin at QB at this point. There is very real dissent amongst the ranks at WSU now. Wulff has lost this crew and there are questions as to whether or not he ever had them. His lack of leadership in the Roof, and Hicks disciplinary issues showed his team that for all his talk about togetherness and sacrifice he was no different than the past regime. The Trojans will name their score here and my bet is that there is no way Petey names it less than the posted spread. 1.5 unit

OSU -14 @ UW: UW has had this game circled all year after the perceived cheap shot that sent Locker to the hospital in Corvallis last yr. Problem is these pups have been nuetered. The coach is running a ghost ship that lacks leadership, speed or any true grit. I'll take the beavs who have been clicking well on offense and defense. That said I think this line is just a bit too high. I really hope to get this under 2 TD's. I think the oddsmaker is a bit too bullish on the orange and black.

CAL @ AZ (Pick): Damn, I was really hoping that AZ would take care of business vs Stanford so I could get some points here. I mentioned in last weeks thread that I was setting up a big play on CAL this week. Arizona has been touting their defense all year as if no one could actually read their schedule. A complete joke. AZ has made hay vs a bunch of panzies. Cal will be by far the most complete offense and defense that they will have faced. Cal coming off a bye may get back their top weapon in Best and should be well rested and ready to taket the mantle as the second best team in the conference. Tempted to lay more but for now, 1 unit

Stanford/UCLA: later.

Does Arizona seem like a trap play to you? You are the Pac-10 guy I like to ask questions about and I am here in the deep southeast stuck watching 11:00am football with the SEC. I was looking at this and have watched both teams only play a couple of times but it appears that California would be the better team. I THINK the recent success of the Wildcats has brought this line down to a PK.

I might be with the public here but it seems like California backers would be getting an awesome break here if they grab it early at a PK. Just my thoughts UoD.

Does Arizona or California have any recent injuries?

 

[Proman]

Like the picks. You can't trust Stoops and U of A in big games. Wasu is a essentially a high school team. No secret that they are that bad. Surprised the line was not 50.

 

[UoweDucks]

Does Arizona seem like a trap play to you? You are the Pac-10 guy I like to ask questions about and I am here in the deep southeast stuck watching 11:00am football with the SEC. I was looking at this and have watched both teams only play a couple of times but it appears that California would be the better team. I THINK the recent success of the Wildcats has brought this line down to a PK.

I might be with the public here but it seems like California backers would be getting an awesome break here if they grab it early at a PK. Just my thoughts UoD.

Does Arizona or California have any recent injuries?

Well while I was hoping for points I do think CAL is a good play at pickem. I just don't think AZ can hang with these guys on either side. AZ dline is getting exposed, they have just 5 sacks on the year and this will be the best oline that they have faced. CAL should have plenty of time to pass and should do very well on the ground particularly if Best does play. On the other side Stanford did a nice job of taking away the TE Gronkowski. CAL should as well as their defensive set; 3-4 does bode well for them they can utilize their speedy linebackers to blanket the TE and force them to run the ball. Situationally this may be tough to do vs CAL as well as the bears rank 14th in the nation vs the run.




Not to much to report on AZ injury news.

On CAL (the availability of Best is a BIG deal):


Best could be available for California's visit to Arizona
October 13, 2008 12:11 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
California running back Jahvid Best, who dislocated his elbow on Sept. 27 against Colorado State, practiced Sunday and could play at Arizona on Saturday.
Best, one of the fastest players in the Pac-10, leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game (215.5).
If he can't go, his backup, Shane Vereen, had 93 yards on 27 carries against Arizona State.
It will be a considerable boon to have both Best and Vereen. Arizona's run defense is struggling. It surrendered 286 yards to Stanford and 221 to New Mexico, though both those teams relied more on power rather than speed.
Also of note: Cal quarterback Nate Longshore is nursing a slipped disc in his back, but coach Jeff Tedford said he will return to practice Tuesday, when he will renew his competition for the starting job with Kevin Riley.
The two quarterbacks will split first-team reps this week, and Tedford might wait until game day to announce a starter, as he did against the Sun Devils.

 

[Cappin'Guru]

Well while I was hoping for points I do think CAL is a good play at pickem. I just don't think AZ can hang with these guys on either side. AZ dline is getting exposed, they have just 5 sacks on the year and this will be the best oline that they have faced. CAL should have plenty of time to pass and should do very well on the ground particularly if Best does play. On the other side Stanford did a nice job of taking away the TE Gronkowski. CAL should as well as their defensive set; 3-4 does bode well for them they can utilize their speedy linebackers to blanket the TE and force them to run the ball. Situationally this may be tough to do vs CAL as well as the bears rank 14th in the nation vs the run.




Not to much to report on AZ injury news.

On CAL (the availability of Best is a BIG deal):


Best could be available for California's visit to Arizona
October 13, 2008 12:11 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
California running back Jahvid Best, who dislocated his elbow on Sept. 27 against Colorado State, practiced Sunday and could play at Arizona on Saturday.
Best, one of the fastest players in the Pac-10, leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game (215.5).
If he can't go, his backup, Shane Vereen, had 93 yards on 27 carries against Arizona State.
It will be a considerable boon to have both Best and Vereen. Arizona's run defense is struggling. It surrendered 286 yards to Stanford and 221 to New Mexico, though both those teams relied more on power rather than speed.
Also of note: Cal quarterback Nate Longshore is nursing a slipped disc in his back, but coach Jeff Tedford said he will return to practice Tuesday, when he will renew his competition for the starting job with Kevin Riley.
The two quarterbacks will split first-team reps this week, and Tedford might wait until game day to announce a starter, as he did against the Sun Devils.

UoD,

Most of my questions about the injuries were answered. I did run across the article about Best and he was my number one concern. Vereen is still great though.

Longshore is nursing the back. I did run across that and I was really interested into what degree that back will play in this game. If necessary will the Bears have enough at the back-up QB position to get it done if he is sidlined? I am aware that at the beginning of the year Longshore was the back up and now starts but does the other cat have enough to get the job done also? With Best in... I will play Cal with either QB.

 

[jimmymo]

On USC as well Ducks.....what are your thoughts on line movement? I have a feeling this climbs through the week...may get hit at gametime -- any chance it gets hit below 42?

Gl this week....

 

[GoSooners]

Ducks...I'm with you on CAL..BOL this week.:toast:

 

[WSU_Tbone]

On USC as well Ducks.....what are your thoughts on line movement? I have a feeling this climbs through the week...may get hit at gametime -- any chance it gets hit below 42?

Gl this week....

Jimmy, WSU + the points might get hit, when they announce that Lopina will play (#2QB)...as I psote elsewhere...he practiced today and is expected to start...however, I don't think it makes a difference...Lopina ain't that good...hell our #1 Rodgers wasn't that good either...We got smoked by CAL in the Palouse with our #1...

 

[gynecologist]

Wow I'm surprised you like Cal..


Thought you would be on AZ.

 

[GoSooners]

Wow I'm surprised you like Cal..


Thought you would be on AZ.

Gyno...Arizona has a very questionable defense. Which is why I didn't play them last week on the road..Stanford completely dominated their DL running the ball for nearly 300 yards. New Mexico also did the same thing to them. Stanford had 3 turnovers in that game to Arizona's zero. Stanford QB Pritchard got knocked out of the game, and the Cards still drove the length of the field to win the game. This was basically the kind of thing I was afraid of with Arizona this season. They would look good in the first half of their schedule, and fall back down to earth when they started getting to the meat of their conference. The trouble is they haven't played the real meat yet still having to play CAL, USC, ASU and OSU..I think once again their going to have problems getting to their 6th win. And Stoops will be fired at the end of the year..If Arizona can somehow shut CAL's run game down then they have a chance here..But CAL is infinitely better at passing the ball than Stanford. And a more physical team. Plus they've had a bye week to prepare for Zona.

 

[SoonerBS]

I'm not going to be betting any PAC 10 this week. Good luck on your plays though, dude, you're the guru . . . . .

 

[UoweDucks]

Wow I'm surprised you like Cal..


Thought you would be on AZ.

I had mentioned last week that I was going to be on the Bears this week. For me it comes down to how overated the Arizona defense is. Their dline is extremely week and was exposed by Stanford. CAL has a vastly superior Oline and their running game should match what Stanford was able to accomplish.

I see that OSU has now dropped under 14. I'll keep watching/hoping for that line to come in.

 

[bmore]

Wow I'm surprised you like Cal..


Thought you would be on AZ.

i was liking zona at first (why is the line only 1) but might change my mind with ducks and sooner on cal...def will at least make me look deeper into this game and i mite just stay away...cal is going to be a HUGE public play this weekend. GL fellas

 

[asudevil88]

Ted Miller explains why Cal is the right side.

"Arizona has beaten four bad teams -- combined record 5-19 -- and lost to two mediocre ones -- combined record 7-7.

The defense has looked good, at least until it faced a physical, power-running offense. The offense has looked good, at least until it made critical mistakes.

The uncharitable conclusion is the Wildcats are better than bad but worse than mediocre and their winning record is a function entirely of a schedule designed to produce a winning record (perhaps offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes brought that page over from Texas Tech last year)."

"What's next: The hard part of the schedule is next, that's what. Assuming Arizona can win at Washington State on Nov. 8, that means the Wildcats will need to win at least one more time to reach bowl eligibility, generally the benchmark established for coach Mike Stoops to keep his job. The other five games include: California, USC, at Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona State. In other words, the top half of the Pac-10. During the Stoops years, the Wildcats have almost always notched at least one major upset, but wouldn't it be interesting if the rivalry game between ASU and UA decides which team earns a bowl berth?"

 

[CoachCB]

- Keep fadin' WSU until the trend ends. USC could beat them 100-0 if they wanted......


---

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I love the Over 55 in the USC/Washington State game. I feel like it's extremely likely USC hits that figure by themself -- Pete Carroll seems always aware of the lines on his team and no qualms about bullying a weak sister.

I would be tempted to bet the WSU TT Under when it comes out, but I expect it'll be so very low that all it would take would be a lucky kickoff return to blow it.

 

[jbragg10]

I'm not going to be betting any PAC 10 this week. Good luck on your plays though, dude, you're the guru . . . . .

I am thinking the same thing.
These games in the PAC-10 are tough this week.

 

[UoweDucks]

ADDING:
You are right YourAllAmerican.
USC/WSU Over 55 - I am having a difficult time trying to poke holes in this one. With OSU, Oregon and CAL all putting over 60 on WSU I think that for BCS purposes it would behoove Pete to at least go over 60. Only way this number doesn't hit is if Carroll instructs his team to take a knee the enitre 4th qtr. I see that WSU gets Lopina back from injury but I don't expect him to make it through the game quite frankly. After him the drop off is huge. Pick 6's are coming. 1 unit

• I am glad to have that CAL bet at pick and I most definitely will middle it if I can get AZ +3, it is close.
• Stanford/UCLA; I am thinking about laying off this game. I am having a difficult time handicapping it.
• UW/OSU: Should have pulled the trigger on OSU yesterday when I saw -13.5. News came out about UW injuries on Oline. Bulyca out. That hurts. I still may decide to lay the 2 td but only for a smaller bet.

 

[bellyputter]

Uwe, don't try and play a 2-teamer(USC -42 + over 55), they will close your account or send someone after you! :nohead:

 

[pezgordo]

ADDING:
You are right YourAllAmerican.
USC/WSU Over 55 - I am having a difficult time trying to poke holes in this one. With OSU, Oregon and CAL all putting over 60 on WSU I think that for BCS purposes it would behoove Pete to at least go over 60. Only way this number doesn't hit is if Carroll instructs his team to take a knee the enitre 4th qtr. I see that WSU gets Lopina back from injury but I don't expect him to make it through the game quite frankly. After him the drop off is huge. Pick 6's are coming. 1 unit

• I am glad to have that CAL bet at pick and I most definitely will middle it if I can get AZ +3, it is close.
• Stanford/UCLA; I am thinking about laying off this game. I am having a difficult time handicapping it.
• UW/OSU: Should have pulled the trigger on OSU yesterday when I saw -13.5. News came out about UW injuries on Oline. Bulyca out. That hurts. I still may decide to lay the 2 td but only for a smaller bet.

Ducks, I had the same thought(s) about the USC total. However, my only concern is that I hate being on an OVER when only one team is going to do all the scoring.

I agree w/ you on CAL/AZ. I got the Bears at +1 early in the week and if I see AZ +3, I'll also take a shot at the middle.