Pac 10 Week 3

[UoweDucks]

YTD 6-6, -.5 unit
LW 1-4, -2.5 units

Well last week really chapped me. I had every one of my leans pegged but my plays were crap. This week has been one of my busiest in a long while at work so I am going to keep this brief.

Arizona @ Iowa -5.5: Without Gronkowski the Cats offense will continue to struggle and here they run into a tough defense. FR starting qb on the road. I am a taker. Iowa -5.5, 1 unit.

Utah +5 @ Oregon: Oregon offense which has looked so bad finally started to look familiar in the second half last week, and Utah has failed to really impress as well. I am taking the pts here in what should be a tight game. Ducks really shouldn't be favored based on their level of execution so far but Utah has some interesting injuries that keep me from going larger. Ducks have to prove me wrong here before I get on board... Utah +5, .5 unit

USC @ UW: offline at one of my books and -18.5 at the other. I am most likely going to play the huskies 1st half, just like I did vs LSU. USC should overpower this defense with their running game and 2nd half could get ugly. If the line keeps dropping (17?) watch me take the trojans though. The husky defense will NOT be able to withstand these guys that long.

UCLA -12 vs KSU: UCLA is so banged up and with additional issues due to suspension the output is likely to suffer greatly. Fortunately KSU is offensively challenged as well. See a let down for UCLA as well after another routine SEC beating... Screams under. UNDER 43.5, 1 unit

SMU -6 @ WSU: WSU is F'd in every way shape and form. Jeshua Anderson just quit to FOCUS ON TRACK! I think the team is ready to roll over on ole coach Wulff. I am laying it SMU -6, 1 unit.

CAL -13.5 @ Minn: I watched that debacle of a game Minn had with the Cuse. Hard to take them seriously here facing an offense that has 10x the firepower. But, this is just like last week on UCLA, this just feeels like too many points to lay. Going with my gut and steering clear. No play.

SJ St +17 @ Stanford: Screw this game, it reminds me of last year when Harbaugh forced an unneccessary last second TD that screwed my bet. I think the Cardinal gets back on track but game should be closer than the spread, that is unless harbaugh has money on it... No play.

Cincinnati -1 @ OSU: Oh this is a juicy one. I can't wait to see it. I favor Cinncinnati because I don't think the beavs will be able to slow down that terrific offense. The game at Reser though, and it is a very tough draw for any team. I think OSU offense will show improvement at home and feel pretty good about this game getting into the 60's. OVER 56 1 unit

ULM+20 @ ASU: A crap game for a team that will most assuredly be looking ahead to Georgia. While this makes the points tempting why should I care about taking a side? I don't. No play.

 

[Conan]

Hahaha, I didn't remember anything about Harbaugh screwing you at the end of that SJSU game. That struck me funny that you ate it like I did. LOL I'm over it but I remember things like that too

Thanks for reminding me about UW and the first half bets. I think this one is good.

But I think I may take a shot on Cal, just because their game is looking pretty good going both ways. That's a first, along with recent strong play from Kevin Riley. I think they are A LOT better than last year. Heaps better.

I'd also lean SJSU's way vs Stanford this week. They took Utah to task better than anyone figured LW, but Tomey's defenses are usually pretty tight so it wasn't really that big of a surprise.

Pretty much agree on the rest but I have no opinion on the OSU UC total because this is a typical situation where the Beaver's defense steps things up. No play on that total, no opinion either. Good luck with it.

Kind of boring being a "lean machine." I can relate to that too. But it takes whatever it takes to get things straight I suppose.

 

[jimmymo]

USC @ UW: offline at one of my books and -18.5 at the other. I am most likely going to play the huskies 1st half, just like I did vs LSU. USC should overpower this defense with their running game and 2nd half could get ugly. If the line keeps dropping (17?) watch me take the trojans though. The husky defense will NOT be able to withstand these guys that long.

Ducks, I haven't seen one capper on USC here...as much as I love my Huskies, their defensive shortcomings showed up last week in a big way....they won't have Les Miles running between the tackles and sprinking in the occasional 5 yard button hook here....USC will roll up on this Husky defense...that said, it is possible that the Dawgs score some points and make things interesting....for some reason though, I lean the other way....if we see SC -17, I too will jump....GL this week.

 

[Delta00]

Under 43.5 in the KSU/UCLA game looks like a really really good play, I hadn't considered that before

 

[SoonerBS]

Good luck this week, Ducks. I have been taking it in the ass so far this season, so I'm hoping I get it turned around this week.

I really think if Washington St was going to win one it should have been last week. They just got beat by a team that is more pathetic than they are. I'm thinking they must have jumped ship on Wulff before the season even began. You and Conan documented the problems they were continuing to have between coach and players during the offseason. Their losing to Hawaii last week just verified to me that they don't care anymore.

 

[Conan]

Come to think of it, that "routine" SEC beating has a grain of truth to it. (You know my sentiments) Have you noticed how some of the SEC diehards have already thrown LSU under the bus? A Pac-10 team that couldn't (according to several SEC posters) POSSIBLY have been one of the Pac-10 cellar dwellers gave LSU a run for their money and out-gained them as well. That is pretty pathetic, seriously it is, for LSU to be trashed so easily just to keep the Pac-10 where they would prefer rating them. I have respect for the LSU program as well as others that are very good but not as they like to say -- "elite."

Next comes UGA, who may win but I don't think they will walk all over Erickson's Devils like they did last season when they played in Tempe. So far what I've seen from ASU has been pretty much what people were saying about them since spring camp. A very good defense, but Sullivan seems to be putting out better than anyone expected. I don't think their OL has arrived though.

Props to the Bruins for taking it on the road as well as they did. This was the second time I gave UT more credit than they deserved. THAT right there is an indication that they may have turned a vital corner, but too bad they are all dinged up, suspended, what have you... But this kid Brehaut is a genuine diamond in the rough. Maybe Norm Chow has finally found what he's been looking for. Too bad it looks like Craft will get the nod Saturday. He's been taking the snaps with the 1's in practice lately. Perhaps he's picked up on the momentum and his game will improve too. I say that with a grain of salt. I think I also played the under in UCLA/KSt. I don't remember exactly what I've done in detail this week, but I will recap and update with anything else I have to add. This week will be a turn around from last week. LW was an abberration. BOL

 

[UoweDucks]

Jimmymo,
The UW defense is very susceptible. They'll get by for a bit on adrenalin but I think they'll succumb in the second half. Ironically, from a uw perspective I am very worried about this game given the sheer amount of overconfidence emanating from the fanbase up here.


SoonerBS,
I think you are right on WSU, I really felt like they would show vs HA. A bad call there. At least I hedged it with an over. I will most likely fade them every game until they cover.

Conan,
If I had more time this week for some humor I would dig up the posts from fsunman, paradise and others telling us all how much more talented LSU and Tenn were than their P10 opponents.

 

[UoweDucks]

Adding UW +12 vs USC, 1st Half, 1 unit

 

[Conan]

Conan,
If I had more time this week for some humor I would dig up the posts from fsunman, paradise and others telling us all how much more talented LSU and Tenn were than their P10 opponents.

When you get the time and if you feel like it I'd like to see that research... but no hurry.

I get a little bored with it. Every time a new SEC homey shows up with his "greater than everyone" BS (Oh no, not again!), you gotta take a close look and get past the NC because it's a conference, not a representative democracy. When I see a new homey spew out the same BS, I have actually needed to ask myself if they all went to the same school or what? Kind of like women are in a way, but different.

 

[WinOne]

Adding UW +12 vs USC, 1st Half, 1 unit

I'm with you on this play. Everything I am hearing is that the lady on the lake will be rocking. Dogs are really excited about this. With no Barkley there could be a bit of a let down and our only experience of USC in this situation was when Sanchez filled in for Booty in game at Zona (sluggish win) and Irish (win/cover) before Sanchez lost at Oregon and Dennis Dixon. I believe Booty came back the following week. They looked really sluggish in Zona game and expect same here against UW.

So you and Harbaugh have some history. Nice...

Let's cash

WinOne!!

 

[AlwaysKeen]

ducks,

does Jacquizz Rodgers' ankle injury concern you at all tomorrow?...I say that because the guy accounts for almost half of their offense...

 

[UoweDucks]

Adding OSU -1.5 2nd Half, 1 unit

 

[5-0SAT]

ignore this tennessee hack UoweDucks ... he's got a loud mouth for not posting any plays and backing a pathetic team. gl next week