PAC 10 Week 3

[UoweDucks]

YTD 5-2, 71% +4 units
LW 3-1, +3 units


BYU -9 vs UCLA: I mentioned in my W2 recap thread that BYU is overrated. I have a hard time envisioning this team finishing in the top 25 if they were playing in a BCS conference. UCLA comes in with a bye week and some confidence after beating another overrated team, Tennessee. One would think that UCLA's defense will be stout enough to keep BYU within reach. That may be so but I will have a difficult time betting on UCLA's offense replicating the second half of the Tenn. game. BYU runs a pretty vanilla D, bend but don't break mantra that requires teams to execute long drives. There is speculation the Bell will be ok at RB, and I think UCLA WR's outclass the BYU secondary, but I still have questions about whether Craft can execute with this makeshift OL in front of 64,000 screaming mormons. For now no play, better bets out there.

Oregon -6.5 @ Purdue: This is one of the better bets I think. Oregon comes to Lafeyette with a lot of confidence after having their way with Utah St. Oregon's offense leads the NCAA averaging 592 yards per game. And honestly it hasn't even begun to click yet. I admit to having some concerns with Curtis Painter purdue QB even though he had a subpar game on Saturday. He is a gamer and I think will cause some problems for the duck secondary. However, for Purdue to win this game they are going to have to get it into a shootout. I just don't think that bodes well for them. I don't think Purdue has the horses to to put up more than 30 on the Oregon D (who boasts one of the top secondaries in the country). Oregon pulls away in the 3rd qtr and doesn't look back. 1 unit

BAYLOR +2.5 vs WSU: Any concerns that I had about my bet on CAL last week were quickly erased as they cruised over WSU for the easiest win on the day. Rogers the wsu QB now finds himself in a qb controversy but IMO it matters not, both he and Lopina stink and I think it is too overwhelming for them to be running this offense not really suited to them with a makeshift oline and new skill guys. I see that Baylor had success last week with their FR qb Griffin who is a top tier recruit. Lets just get down to it. I've been on the FADE WSU bandwagon all summer long and it doesn't stop now. I'll take the home dog. 1 Unit

More later.

 

[midman2161]

Thanks man.. tailed you on Zona last week, and def like the two so far. Oregon has looked solid, and it is inexcusable for Wazzou to be laying points to anyone, especially on the road.

 

[Conan]

One thing Cal is not known for is its pass defense. Nevertheless QB Rogers was able to get nothing going for the Coogs last week. I just don't get it, why all this love for WSU here? Baylor may not be a powerfull football team albeit a loser, but what an opportunity for them to chalk up a home victory this week! Perhaps it's just as well to bet the ML and win a little juice instead of risking it. I really think WSU will end up a bottom 10 team in the country right beside UT St., FL Int, UAB, Idaho, Duke, Notre Dame....

 

[UoweDucks]

Maryland +14.5 vs CAL: Maryland laid an egg last week vs Mid Ten st. and CAL looked like world beaters vs wsu. My first inclination is to ride CAL but I find that I have some reservations. First off, I think that this line is somewhat inflated by the results of last weeks games. Secondly, as much as I like Riley at QB he did not have a great game throwing at Pullman. My bet is that Maryland comes out stacking the box. Make Riley beat you. This will be an early morning start for the west coast boys and my gut says that the terps may have some backbone after one of their most embarrassing losses ever. 1/2 unit

 

[GoSooners]

Maryland +14.5 vs CAL: Maryland laid an egg last week vs Mid Ten st. and CAL looked like world beaters vs wsu. My first inclination is to ride CAL but I find that I have some reservations. First off, I think that this line is somewhat inflated by the results of last weeks games. Secondly, as much as I like Riley at QB he did not have a great game throwing at Pullman. My bet is that Maryland comes out stacking the box. Make Riley beat you. This will be an early morning start for the west coast boys and my gut says that the terps may have some backbone after one of their most embarrassing losses ever. 1/2 unit

I'm curious to see what kind of totals we get for this game. I'm hoping they will also be a little inflated. I do see Maryland stacking the box. But if Cal does the same thing because of Maryland's bad QB play so far, we could see a very low scoring game.

 

[UoweDucks]

OU -20 @ UW: I mentioned in the beginning of the year that I think UW starts out 0-3 and noted that after this next loss their confidence will be shot. OU has an enormous advantage in talent in this contest and I fear that after getting hit in the mouth UW will throw that towel in by halftime. Now the hard part is to determine if I want to go with a 20 pt fav on the road? I lean to OU but I think this line is pretty tight. The sooners contingent are probably worried about the refs and I would be as well. The P10 crew owes UW and one tough call could be the difference between a cover or not... What to do? I am thinking no bet.

USC -10 vs OHIO St.: Hmm last time Pete Carroll played a Big 10 contender with a few weeks to prepare? Domination. USC offense will get into the 30's and Ohio St. less than 17 pts. I can't wait to watch this game. 1 unit

 

[GoSooners]

Ducks...My main concern right now with OU is their inability to perform well on the road the last couple of years. I also have some concern with OU's poor special teams play, and OU playing a mobile passing QB. Something that has given OU problems over the years. Having said that, I don't think that Washington can hold the OU offense below 35 points in this game. So much is probably going to depend on turnovers, special teams play, penalties etc. Your right, I think the final score could be very tight on the spread.

 

[UoweDucks]

Arizona -10 @ New Mexico: I've been rolling with AZ but I think that this is somewhat of a trap game. I can't help but think that the cats with their new found success may not be able to help themselves in looking ahead to next weeks showdown vs UCLA. Yes I am aware that Arizona will want some revenge for last years loss to NM. But, the Lobos have some incentive as well they will most certainly NOT want to go 0-3. They gave A&M a nice battle last week. No play.

ASU -22 vs UNLV: Another sandwich game before ASU's bought with Georgia. I realize that I will probably regret not playing this as UNLV is really outmatched but I have to think that the scrubs come in a bit earlier here in order to avoid injury. No play for now.

 

[MajorGCG]

Ducks I've been all over Oregon with you, but Purdue worries me a bit as I dont feel Oregon is that great of a team. What about a total play there?

On Cal/UMd - Maryland is AWFUL. If they score 14pts they are rocking it. I think Cal will run all over them with Best. Buy the hook for safety and enjoy the ass beating that will ensue.

Love OU -20 vs UW. This OU team seems like they are on a mission.

 

[silver7]

GS Your Boys Had Me

a tad nervous Sat.! Never expected them to give up 20 @ home to a tm w/new QB & Rb. Was glad in the 3rd 3rd Q I only laid 20. It all came out fine & OU IS awesome on O. Don't think any tm in the country can match Bradford & that set of RB's including SC. Mo. PO might have an edge w/Daniels & those WR, but the loss of Temple hurts them IMO. Maclin is scarry. Think UW will have a huge letdown (one of Coach LT's favorite angles). Pisses me off OU on the same time as OSU/USC. Will tape one I guess. I hardly ever get to see many B12 gms here. I caught KU early @ + 4-, like it a lot. That Mo/Nv total should be around 68. BOL appreciate all your work, that I'm too old and or lazy to do anymore.

 

[UoweDucks]

I'm curious to see what kind of totals we get for this game. I'm hoping they will also be a little inflated. I do see Maryland stacking the box. But if Cal does the same thing because of Maryland's bad QB play so far, we could see a very low scoring game.

I do like this idea. Will keep an eye out for this.

Ducks...My main concern right now with OU is their inability to perform well on the road the last couple of years. I also have some concern with OU's poor special teams play, and OU playing a mobile passing QB. Something that has given OU problems over the years. Having said that, I don't think that Washington can hold the OU offense below 35 points in this game. So much is probably going to depend on turnovers, special teams play, penalties etc. Your right, I think the final score could be very tight on the spread.

Glad to see we are on the same wavelength!

Ducks I've been all over Oregon with you, but Purdue worries me a bit as I dont feel Oregon is that great of a team. What about a total play there?

On Cal/UMd - Maryland is AWFUL. If they score 14pts they are rocking it. I think Cal will run all over them with Best. Buy the hook for safety and enjoy the ass beating that will ensue.

Love OU -20 vs UW. This OU team seems like they are on a mission.

Yeah, the total could be interesting in the duck/Bmaker game. Over 55? We'll have to see. As for Oregon being that good. Tough to say really. I've seen them play twice and have to admit that at this point in the season this team is better than I thought that they would be. Purdue is a step up in competition but I wonder how much. I am betting that like most B10 teams Oregon has played in the last 7 years they will be a step slower than Oregon. I also notice that they return just 12 starters from last years team. The ducks are a VERY difficult team to prepare for in just one week. We'll just have to see. I will say that I am considering upping it another unit.

 

[silver7]

Duck Sorry For The Long Post

to GS. It's your thread and I always follow you Conan & the WC guys. Won't happen again.

 

[BOBBYW]

Uowe.....

Line On Usc Now -12.....looks Like It May Continue To Climb.....I Am Convinced That Ohs Was Looking Ahead And Alot Of Tms Do That.....if It Reaches 14 I'm On The Buckeyes

 

[bellyputter]

I see USC -10.5(and one 10) everywhere in the free world.

 

[Conan]

Maryland +14.5 vs CAL: Maryland laid an egg last week vs Mid Ten st. and CAL looked like world beaters vs wsu. My first inclination is to ride CAL but I find that I have some reservations. First off, I think that this line is somewhat inflated by the results of last weeks games. Secondly, as much as I like Riley at QB he did not have a great game throwing at Pullman. My bet is that Maryland comes out stacking the box. Make Riley beat you. This will be an early morning start for the west coast boys and my gut says that the terps may have some backbone after one of their most embarrassing losses ever. 1/2 unit

Ducks,

I also had some thoughts of being snookered by that line but I went along with my first impression anyway. A trap? My worst fear here but what the hell, I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth... for too long anyway.

MD isn't much of a world beater and they may just lay down here if Cal jumps on them early, or they may fade at the end. Cal's talent seems to run pretty deep. Jahvid should have another good game but I wouldn't be surprised to see Shane Vereen used more in this one if they key on Best a little too often. I'm still becoming acquainted with Cal's WR's. Hope to see more of the same.

One thing I will say though is that with the 13 I got, if the public runs this one up another couple of points, I'll hedge it all with a middle. Aside from that, I'll keep it to one unit with the idea that you might be right about the number being a lot of hype from last weeks beat down of WSU.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL ducks...

 

[Uno]

good luck man, thanks for the great stuff so far this year.

 

[MajorGCG]

I just have no respect for Maryland. I bought a point and took Cal. Their O is just too much for Maryland who cant score on a 1-AA school.

 

[WormyPix]

How's Ore St/Hawaii? HI now has stability at QB with Brennan's understudy finally under center (or 5 yds away from center in this case). HI's "D" is very good, despite their uninspiring performance against Weber St last wk. They're excellent at stopping the run, but kinda weak against a sharp QB. Will this pose problems for Ore St? I feel if Stanford can score on them, so can HI, esp with Graunke at QB.

 

[UoweDucks]

How's Ore St/Hawaii? HI now has stability at QB with Brennan's understudy finally under center (or 5 yds away from center in this case). HI's "D" is very good, despite their uninspiring performance against Weber St last wk. They're excellent at stopping the run, but kinda weak against a sharp QB. Will this pose problems for Ore St? I feel if Stanford can score on them, so can HI, esp with Graunke at QB.

OSU -12 vs Hawaii: OSU is worse off on D than I had expected and I had very low expectations. This team cannot stop the run. But, Hawaii can be exposed in the air and I think it is likely that Moevo/ straughter will do so again and again. That said I can't lay that much with a team that cannot stop the run. No Play

Stanford @ TCU -13: Eh. This line is a tossup to me. TCU should be able to focus on Gearhart and force Stanford to throw, which they aren't that good at. This appears to me to be a low scoring game. No Play


I have changed my opinion on Arizona for this week. Last year I had railed on the Cats inability to execute in the red zone, a common problem for teams early in the learning process of the spread offense. This summer my hunch on Arizona was improved redzone performance. That has certainly happened. They are 15-15 in the red zone. Phenominal turnaround. Now it has been confirmed that Gronkowski is returning this week. Tuitama gets to enjoy the addition of one of his top targets and one of the nations best Tight ends. Adding Arizona -10, 1/2 unit

RECAP- In order of priority
OREGON -6.5, 1 unit
Baylor +2.5, 1 unit
USC -10, 1 unit
Maryland +14.5, 1/2 unit
Arizona -10, 1/2 unit

I am most likely going to add Fresno St. and one or two total plays. I was not able to get any more on Oregon as the line moved away from me while I was waiting for word on Jeremiah Johnson's shoulder (it is fine).