PAC 10 Week 15

[UoweDucks]

YTD 32-27, (54%) +5.5 units
LW 3-0, +2.5 units

Last week got back to the business of winning bets and damn it felt good to watch my alma mater put a beat down on OSU the likes of which they have NEVER seen.



This week:

CAL -34 vs UW: In this contest there is ZERO incentive for UW to play for, what terrible scheduling by UW to allow a bye week after their rivalry game. Further, Tye Willingham went on record last week saying that he was going to take some extra time off for the holiday. If he doesn't care neither will his team. This is also a revenge game after uw actually beat the hell out CAL last yr. 1 unit

CAL -20 (1st half) vs UW: See above. 1 unit

USC -33 vs UCLA: Carroll is willing to sacrifice 2 timeouts just so they can wear their red jerseys. Hubris. The right brain is saying take the points. The left brain is saying this line is a toss of the coin. USC really has nothing to play for here as they are almost assuredly pegged for the Rosebowl. How sad to see their fans so underwhelmed by it. Sure there is some pride and recruiting brag points but offensively, predicting USC to go on a tear is not the proposition that it was in years past. Fortunately for USC's offense, UCLA's offense will gave away enough points to allow for a cover. 1/2 unit

AZ -10 vs ASU: ASU's lack of a run game has hampered them all year long. Ericksons stubbornness in force feeding the run on his opponents has cost bettors on ASU plenty of covers this year. After a clean sweep taking the devils and the under last week I am going to reverse it and go Cats. Arizona off a bye week should be plenty capable of dismantling ASU. On the flip side AZ defense has been burned by the run this year but that obviously isn't going to be the case this week. Stoops now finds that after accomplishing the bowl thing his detractors want more. Nothing more satisfying than beating the rival and keeping them out of a bowl game. 1 unit

AZ/ASU OVER 50.5: Both defenses are susceptible here and I think this line is to low maybe by 6-7 points. 1/2 unit


How do you make Beaver cookies?
Beat the shit out of them for three hours and take them out of the Bowl.

 

[Addict101]

Congrats on destroying the Beavs. I thought Riley was a lock for COY in the Pac but is it time to look at Mike now?

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

hope that cats-devils line keeps comin down...dropped 5 pts. since opening....favorite bet of the weekend so far....

 

[Conan]

Glad to see you shake off that funk Ducks. I'd love to see you go out with 2 sweeps in a row. (I'd settle for one.)

BOL my friend.

 

[GoSooners]

Good luck Ducks...I'm with you on Arizona. I might look into the over in that game too.

 

[Conan]

A duck walks into a bar and sits down. He starts dialing numbers... like a telephone... on his wing and talking into it.

The bartender walks over and tells him this is a very tough neighborhood and he doesn't need any trouble here. The duck says, "You don't understand. I'm very hi-tech. I had a phone installed in my wing because I was tired of carrying the cellular." The bartender says "Prove it." The duck dials up a number and places his wing near the bartender. The bartender talks into the wing and carries on a conversation. "That's incredible", says the bartender... "I would never have believed it!" "Yeah", said the duck, "I can keep in touch with my broker, my wife, my girlfriend, you name it. By the way, where is the men's room?" The bartender directs him to the men's room.

The duck goes in and 5, 10, 20 minutes go by and he doesn't return. Fearing the worst given the neighborhood, the bartender goes into the men's room. There is the duck spread-eagle on the wall. His pants are pulled down and he has a roll of toilet paper up his ass.

"Oh my god!" said the bartender. "Did they rob you? Are you hurt?" The duck turns and says: "No, I'm ok. I'm just waiting for a fax."

 

[Conan]

Ducks, here's an answer to the Alliotti enigma...

I REALLY like this guy... DC at Boise St.

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="100%"><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="5"><tbody><tr><td class="sm" valing="TOP"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="bioname">Justin Wilcox </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="bioposition"> Football </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="bioposition"> Defensive Coordinator </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table width="251" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" height="28"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="bioposition"> Alma Mater: Oregon -1999 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="wf7130" colspan="2">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="sm" colspan="2"> <hr noshade="noshade"> Courtesy: Boise State Sports Information
Release: 08/29/2006 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="sm" colspan="2"> Justin Wilcox, 31, is in his third season as defensive coordinator at Boise State and his fifth season overall after working as a graduate assistant for the Broncos from 2001-2002. In both 2006 and 2007 the Broncos were the top team in the Western Athletic Conference in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense and pass defense. Last year the Broncos were nationally ranked in pass efficiency defense (24th), total defense and scoring defense (25th), passing defense and sacks (26th), and rushing defense (35th). Nationally in 2006, Wilcox’s first year as defensive coordinator, Boise State was eighth in rushing defense, 14th in total defense, 20th in scoring defense, 28th in sacks, and 30th in pass efficiency defense. Wilcox’s defense was instrumental in helping the 2006 Boise State team to a 13-0 record and its now-famous 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Last season defense lineman Nick Schlekeway and defensive back Marty Tadman were first-team All-WAC selections and defensive back Kyle Wilson was a second-team pick. In addition, defensive back Orlando Scandrick decided to skip his final season to become eligible for the 2008 NFL draft and was taken in the fifth round by the Dallas Cowboys. Two members of Wilcox’s 2006 squad, linebacker Korey Hall and defensive back Gerald Alexander, were selected in the 2007 NFL draft and started as rookies for the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, respectively, last fall. Before assuming the duties as the Bronco defensive coordinator, Wilcox spent three seasons at California as linebackers coach. While coaching at Cal from 2003-2005, Wilcox helped the Golden Bears to three straight bowl games and 26-12 record. The Bears played in the Insight Bowl in 2003, the Holiday Bowl in 2004, and the Las Vegas Bowl in 2005. Wilcox was credited with turning his linebackers into a unit that epitomized the Cal defense’s swarm-to-the-ball philosophy. In 2005 he coached a second-team All-Pac-10 player and two first-team freshman All-America picks. In his two seasons as a graduate assistant at Boise State, Wilcox worked with the Broncos’ outside linebackers. He helped Boise State to an upset victory over No. 8 Fresno State in 2001 and a 12-1 record and a No. 15 national ranking in 2002. Wilcox played at Oregon from 1995-99 and was a part of four Duck teams that advanced to bowl games. He played in the 1997 Las Vegas Bowl, the 1998 Aloha Bowl, and the 1999 Sun Bowl. He redshirted in 1995 when Oregon participated in the Cotton Bowl. His first three years were spent as a safety before he moved to cornerback as a senior in 1999 and earned second-team All-Pac-10 honors. Wilcox earned his bachelor’s degree in anthropology from Oregon in 1999. The Wilcox name is one very familiar to Bronco football fans. Justin’s father is former Boise Junior College great Dave Wilcox, a member of the Boise State Athletic Hall of Fame. The elder Wilcox played for the Broncos in 1960 and 1961 and earned JC All-America honors before transferring to Oregon. Dave Wilcox went on to become an All-Pro linebacker for the San Francisco 49ers and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2000. </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="sm">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="sm" colspan="2"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> </table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL ducks...

 

[UoweDucks]

Thx guys,

I know that there has been some discussion about the Total on USC/UCLA.
I consider the total a dangerous play on either side given what Kraft did last week vs ASU. I think the the safer play by far is laying the points. USC should enjoy a short field all game long. And I forgot to mention that there is a bit of a nugget for USC. That full page add that UCLA put in the LA Times before the season calling an end to the monopoly in LA.
The last time someone did that (Oregon putting billboards in LA) Carroll and players took it pretty personal.


Conan,
As for Oregon's DC I do hope that Wilcox would get consideration but think that he may end up being loyal to Peterson for naming him the youngest DC in the country. I do think he would be an upgrade as he advocates a very aggressive D. He is also an excellent recruiter. He bleeds green and was a terrific player for Oregon. But, I mentioned a few weeks back that John Neal could be the next DC. He is Oregon's Secondary coach. I know that he and Kelly are close so I would consider him to be the candidate to beat if/when Allioti is out of the picture.

 

[Conan]

Thx guys,

I know that there has been some discussion about the Total on USC/UCLA.
I consider the total a dangerous play on either side given what Kraft did last week vs ASU. I think the the safer play by far is laying the points. USC should enjoy a short field all game long. And I forgot to mention that there is a bit of a nugget for USC. That full page add that UCLA put in the LA Times before the season calling an end to the monopoly in LA.
The last time someone did that (Oregon putting billboards in LA) Carroll and players took it pretty personal.


Conan,
As for Oregon's DC I do hope that Wilcox would get consideration but think that he may end up being loyal to Peterson for naming him the youngest DC in the country. I do think he would be an upgrade as he advocates a very aggressive D. He is also an excellent recruiter. He bleeds green and was a terrific player for Oregon. But, I mentioned a few weeks back that John Neal could be the next DC. He is Oregon's Secondary coach. I know that he and Kelly are close so I would consider him to be the candidate to beat if/when Allioti is out of the picture.

With all due respect Ducks I don't think that Kevin Craft throwing as bad as he has for the past few games (except UW where he had none 2 weeks ago) is likely, only perhaps a possibility. He was very well behaved for much of the season before he started blowing up. 0 or 1 pick per game except against OSU, ASU, Cal etc. I think the total can withstand him tossing a couple because UCLA's defense won't let the Trojan offense move efficiently or score quickly. 48 is a lot for USC to score on their own, even if you toss in a couple easy pick 6's. UCLA's problem is that they can't contribute their share of the total offensively. And I say that in the most extreme sense regardless of whether or not USC has the#1 defense.

And as far as this agitation factor goes from the billboard ad you mentioned. I see Neuheisel's forfeiting 2 timeouts in defense of Carrol's wishes to wear red and forfeit 2 timeouts himself as an olive branch. Because it is very recent, and even directly involving this game, I see that as a strong mitigating factor.

Both of those factors are somewhat hit and miss but not entirely so. UCLA might get shut out. That's a distinct possiblity too, perhaps just as possible as Craft shooting a few duds.

Now I have a question for you about John Neal. Let me say this first, I don't know him well, only that he's been their DB coach under Alliotti. Now here's the question... You and me and probably most everyone in CFB who knows much of anything about the Ducks knows what was expected of their pass defense at the start of the season. I realize that they have a few future NFL players back there... Byrd, Chung and Thurmond just for starters, so it's not a matter of lacking talent. So the question is WHY are they last in the Pac-10 in passing defense? Wouldn't some of that responsibility fall on Neal, or would that be more on Alliotti for just being ineffective in an overall sense? That seems a bit of a stretch considering their rank in passing D but not in rushing. I am questioning Neal as the obvious culprit for that reason. I'm sure the reasons why UO failed to put together a formidable secondary is more complex than perhaps one coach's responsibility. But I still have my suspicions and I think for a pretty good reason.

I hope you realize that it concerns me who they choose to run their defense. I support them vigorously and Alliotti has been my #1 complaint about them for years. I just want to see them get it right when the time comes. I shudder to think that a personal relationship between Kelly and Neal would be the deciding factor. Shades of Bellotti and Alliotti all over again!

 

[UoweDucks]

I think it is a fair question. My attempt to answer lies in a few factors. First the scheme that Allioti has put in place is very difficult to learn particularly at LB there is way to much read and react and the LB's while talented this year are young. The biggest hits to Oregon in the passing game have occurred via play action and TE's in particular have killed them. I would be very interested to see a breakdown of how many more TE completions vs WR completions. I would think that TE's ratio would be much higher than any other team in conf.
Also Allioti conceptually devotes his defense to stopping the run, this puts the CB's in man far more than zone and that has hurt them. The bend but don't break aspect.

Secondly, due to Oregon's offensive proficiency the defense is in the game a TON more and often times trying to protect a lead. Have a look at pass efficiency D. Oregon has had over a 100 more passes attempted on them vs any other team in conference. The time of possesion is terribly offset which is a disadvantage to the D they have worn down.

In summary I don't think you can assess Neals contributions by looking at the Pass D rankings. I do know that in the past few weeks there have been some changes made in order to simplify things defensively a position that I know is supported by Neal. If you recall back about 5 years ago how bad the secondary was and chart the improvement I think you would be pretty impressed by the turnaround.

 

[UoweDucks]

With all due respect Ducks I don't think that Kevin Craft throwing as bad as he has for the past few games (except UW where he had none 2 weeks ago) is likely, only perhaps a possibility. He was very well behaved for much of the season before he started blowing up. 0 or 1 pick per game except against OSU, ASU, Cal etc. I think the total can withstand him tossing a couple because UCLA's defense won't let the Trojan offense move efficiently or score quickly. 48 is a lot for USC to score on their own, even if you toss in a couple easy pick 6's. UCLA's problem is that they can't contribute their share of the total offensively. And I say that in the most extreme sense regardless of whether or not USC has the#1 defense.

And as far as this agitation factor goes from the billboard ad you mentioned. I see Neuheisel's forfeiting 2 timeouts in defense of Carrol's wishes to wear red and forfeit 2 timeouts himself as an olive branch. Because it is very recent, and even directly involving this game, I see that as a strong mitigating factor.

Both of those factors are somewhat hit and miss but not entirely so. UCLA might get shut out. That's a distinct possiblity too, perhaps just as possible as Craft shooting a few duds.

All fair points. I had not considered that time out offering but you raise a good counterpoint to that.
A couple of stats that stand out to me in this game:

USC offense vs UCLA D
USC avg 201 yards rushing per game ranked 18th nationally
USC avg 245 yards passing per game ranked 32 nationally
UCLA D allowing 161 yards per game ranked 86th nationally
UCLA D allowing 158 yards per game ranked 2nd nationally

One final point on UCLA run D. If I throw out ASU and WSU rushing totals and re-average the run d they allow 197 yards per game which puts them at around 104th worst in country. I know this is stupid but those two games really throw the stats off.

Conclusion, USC should have a lot of success running the ball negating UCLA's only strength; their pass D.

UCLA offense vs USC D
USC allowing 86 yards rushing per game ranked 6th nationally
USC allowing 124 yards passing per game ranked 1st nationally
UCLA avg 86 yards rushing per game ranked 116th nationally
UCLA avg 208 yards per game ranked 64th nationally

UCLA has had 20 pass attempts intercepted ranked 113th nationally

Conclusion, in no way shape or form will UCLA be able to run the ball with any success. They will be forced to throw into the top passing D in the nation. Whether or not this results in picks is anyone's guess but the stats suggest a high probability

Scoring Defense:
USC allowing just 7.8 pts per game ranked #1
UCLA allowing 30 pts per game ranked 81st
Scoring Offense:
UCLA avg 18 pts per game ranked 107th
USC avg 38 pts per game ranked 13th

My, conclusion overall. UCLA will not score a TD. USC should dominate time of possession and have field position advantage all game long. Because of that USC has a very good chance of exceeding their offensive scoring total of 38 per game. I do think that the total is a riskier bet than USC because of Krafts unpredictability but that is why we call it gambling. I hope that under hits for you. Best of luck.

 

[Conan]

OK then... 41-3 so be it.

BOL

 

[Conan]

I have been looking at some message boards lately Ducks and at least some of the UCLA knowledgeable are predicting an all out effort on the part of UCLA's defense. I'll be checking on this. If a writer starts quoting players I'll C&P but as of now it's only speculation. Personally I suspect something's up with this.

 

[UoweDucks]

Bickley: Ejection adds to Rudy's saga

35 comments by Dan Bickley - Dec. 4, 2008 07:53 PM
The Arizona Republic
A group of fans was thrown out of a girls basketball game Tuesday night at Tempe Marcos de Niza High. The fans were heckling the referees so much that the lead official stopped the game and ejected the group from the gymnasium.
One of them was Rudy Carpenter, senior quarterback for Arizona State's football team.

Ugh.
OK, this is not a huge deal. Carpenter was cheering for visiting Chandler Hamilton, where his girlfriend's sister attends school. Pretty innocent stuff, and better than having your quarterback saddled up at the bar.
Except between the ejection and the exit doors, multiple sources say Rudy got a little belligerent, a little salty with his language. The scene prompted school officials to call the police (the situation was resolved before the patrol sergeant arrived), and it left some witnesses shaking their heads.
Carpenter vehemently claimed he was an innocent bystander, but would not comment further for the record. He said he was tired of defending himself.
Ugh.
The Arizona Interscholastic Association is aware of the issue, and in a bizarre twist, the lead official from that game has been suspended indefinitely because of peripheral issues unrelated to the ejections. Yet the AIA made it clear they supported the referee's decision to remove the section of fans from the game.
"We always support the official in maintaining the proper game environment," said Chuck Schmidt, AIA assistant executive director. "There are other circumstances that surround this suspension."
From an ASU viewpoint, this all amounts to nothing. There is no police report, and nothing that falls under the student code of conduct. But you can bet coach Dennis Erickson is rolling his eyes, wondering why his starting quarterback is getting tossed from a high school contest just four nights before the really big game against the bitter rival.
Sadly, it also symbolizes Carpenter's drama-filled career at ASU, where he has been alternately framed as a phenomenon, a rat, a gamer and a huge disappointment.
According to the numbers, Carpenter will go down as one of the best quarterbacks in school history. Strangely, many Sun Devils fans can't wait until he's gone. Throw in the Sam Keller fiasco, and you have one of the crazier career paths in college football history.
While I really like the young man, this season has done little for Carpenter's image. He entered the season with high hopes and NFL aspirations. His wide receivers still believe they are the best in the Pac-10. Yet the Sun Devils' passing game has been a sputtering sham. It doesn't make sense, and some of the failure must fall on the offensive design.
Alas, it's also a year when Rudy became the whipping boy all over again, and this sideshow from Marcos de Niza will not help matters. Whatever prompted the ejection, you want your starting quarterback to show a little more polish, a little more decorum, in public. Or maybe you want him at home with his playbook.
But most of all, you want him to beat Arizona, which means this story isn't over just yet.
For all the angst surrounding the ASU quarterback, Carpenter still can leave school with a 4-0 record against the Wildcats, and no Sun Devils quarterback has run the table like that. It would give him the eternal trump card against all his many critics.
Welcome to Rudy's last game, Rudy's last hand. Fair or not, he doesn't want to get booted out of this one.

 

[asudevil88]

Bickley: Ejection adds to Rudy's saga

35 comments by Dan Bickley - Dec. 4, 2008 07:53 PM
The Arizona Republic
A group of fans was thrown out of a girls basketball game Tuesday night at Tempe Marcos de Niza High. The fans were heckling the referees so much that the lead official stopped the game and ejected the group from the gymnasium.
One of them was Rudy Carpenter, senior quarterback for Arizona State's football team.

Ugh.
OK, this is not a huge deal. Carpenter was cheering for visiting Chandler Hamilton, where his girlfriend's sister attends school. Pretty innocent stuff, and better than having your quarterback saddled up at the bar.
Except between the ejection and the exit doors, multiple sources say Rudy got a little belligerent, a little salty with his language. The scene prompted school officials to call the police (the situation was resolved before the patrol sergeant arrived), and it left some witnesses shaking their heads.
Carpenter vehemently claimed he was an innocent bystander, but would not comment further for the record. He said he was tired of defending himself.
Ugh.
The Arizona Interscholastic Association is aware of the issue, and in a bizarre twist, the lead official from that game has been suspended indefinitely because of peripheral issues unrelated to the ejections. Yet the AIA made it clear they supported the referee's decision to remove the section of fans from the game.
"We always support the official in maintaining the proper game environment," said Chuck Schmidt, AIA assistant executive director. "There are other circumstances that surround this suspension."
From an ASU viewpoint, this all amounts to nothing. There is no police report, and nothing that falls under the student code of conduct. But you can bet coach Dennis Erickson is rolling his eyes, wondering why his starting quarterback is getting tossed from a high school contest just four nights before the really big game against the bitter rival.
Sadly, it also symbolizes Carpenter's drama-filled career at ASU, where he has been alternately framed as a phenomenon, a rat, a gamer and a huge disappointment.
According to the numbers, Carpenter will go down as one of the best quarterbacks in school history. Strangely, many Sun Devils fans can't wait until he's gone. Throw in the Sam Keller fiasco, and you have one of the crazier career paths in college football history.
While I really like the young man, this season has done little for Carpenter's image. He entered the season with high hopes and NFL aspirations. His wide receivers still believe they are the best in the Pac-10. Yet the Sun Devils' passing game has been a sputtering sham. It doesn't make sense, and some of the failure must fall on the offensive design.
Alas, it's also a year when Rudy became the whipping boy all over again, and this sideshow from Marcos de Niza will not help matters. Whatever prompted the ejection, you want your starting quarterback to show a little more polish, a little more decorum, in public. Or maybe you want him at home with his playbook.
But most of all, you want him to beat Arizona, which means this story isn't over just yet.
For all the angst surrounding the ASU quarterback, Carpenter still can leave school with a 4-0 record against the Wildcats, and no Sun Devils quarterback has run the table like that. It would give him the eternal trump card against all his many critics.
Welcome to Rudy's last game, Rudy's last hand. Fair or not, he doesn't want to get booted out of this one.

This is all a great big non event. I've been to that gym over 50 times. It is one of the smallest gyms in the state, so its easy to see what's going on everywhere. I know someone that was at the game. The section that was causing all of the problems was next to Rudy. He got ejected because of guilt by association. He said something to security as he left.

Dickley has hated Rudy ever sense the Keller/Carp crap of a few years ago. I'm not a big Rudy fan, but he is a lightning rod for trouble. If this was a bar fight, then it would be an issue. By all accounts, Rudy stays away from all of that crap.

One last thing:

Rudy 3-0 versus the U of Eh

Willie T 0-3 versus ASU

 

[UoweDucks]

Yeah ASUDEVIL,
It is a nonevent but I think it is pretty funny.

You think the devils have a shot this week? I know that Rudy has owned this series but this ASU team is the worst one so far and this AZ team is the best that they have had in this timeframe. Thinking the line would have been even higher had ASU not won the past 3 games but as we all know those opponents were ghosts.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

total keeps coming down...48' now...hope it keeps dropppin...makes me like this over even more...

 

[Conan]

Makes me wonder about Rudy.

Wasn't it his mother that stirred up all the crap when Keller was around? Didn't Sam have the job locked up until Mrs. Carpenter threatened to pull her son out of school if he didn't play ahead of Sam Keller? I seem to remember that as one of Koetter's finest moments at ASU, especially after Sam Keller transferred out.

Maybe Rudy is a bit spoiled???

 

[asudevil88]

Makes me wonder about Rudy.

Wasn't it his mother that stirred up all the crap when Keller was around? Didn't Sam have the job locked up until Mrs. Carpenter threatened to pull her son out of school if he didn't play ahead of Sam Keller? I seem to remember that as one of Koetter's finest moments at ASU, especially after Sam Keller transferred out.

Maybe Rudy is a bit spoiled???

It was his dad. And by all accounts he is a huge dick.