YTD 29-27, +3 units
LW 0-1, -1,5 units
A happy Thanksgiving to all. Once again I don't see that much that screams value but I have a few selections and some in depth thoughts on the big game, the Civil War FWIW.
ASU -10 vs UCLA & UNDER 46: I do not think that we'll be seeing much offense here. Both teams have struggled mightily for points. The only way I see the under not hitting is if ASU can open up some long balls so I see laying the points as somewhat of a hedge. However, ASU's strength is the pasing game and UCLA is very good against that strength with the 8th best passing D in the nation. The devils may be forced to rely more on their suspect rushing game which has shown slight improvement. 1 unit each
USC -32 vs ND: I feel like this line is inflated somewhat but I don't have the stomach to take ND. The total seems low but defensively USC should dominate. I believe that the only way ND covers this is if they can manage 2 td's offensively. I have a hard time seeing that. 1/2 unit
WSU +28.5 @ Hawaii: Last week I had pegged a WSU cover but didn't have the cajones to bet it. While I think this line is too high I wouldn't touch it. I've seen too many situations like this when teams use the end of year Hawaii game as a vacation. The cougs don't boast a lot of mental fortitude either. Think they come out and put up 14 or so and I don't have the faith that HA can or will break into the mid 40's. No Play.
UO +3 @ OSU: Many are on the beavs, they have played excellent football this year. They run the ball, defend the run and they do not make mistakes. On the surface this seems like an easy play for the beavs who seemingly have all the momentum to cruise past UO and all the way to the rose bowl. I have a LONG history of watching civil wars and if there is one constant it is that things almost never happen the way people think. I put a bet against the ducks last year in a game in which they were without 10 starters and starting a QB who was coming off a concussion and had less than a quarter of playing time in the year. Obvious play right? Nope, an outmanned Oregon team took the beavs to double overtime and covered the spread.
That is last year, what about this year? The one player on OSU's team who I think has been THE key to their season is most likely out. Jaquiz Rodgers. This RB is responsible for 70% of their rushing offense this year. In his absence last week the beavs offense struggled offensively.
This will be the beavs 5th game in a row and will be by far the most physical as all Civil Wars are. On the other hand Oregon is coming off a bye week and will be fresh and fully healthy for the first time in 3 years. There will be a matched intensity in this game. While OSU is playing for the Rose bowl the ducks are playing to get to the Holiday bowl and for pride. The beavs have won the past two years the Oregon players have had to hear about it. This duck team has excellent senior leadership this year, that matters.
I've written all this not to stake a bet but to demonstrate another viewpoint on the game. I consider this game a coin flip. As for the total I think the UNDER has a LOT of merit but I won't be betting it either as I can envision this game going into OT yet again.
GO DUCKS
LW 0-1, -1,5 units
A happy Thanksgiving to all. Once again I don't see that much that screams value but I have a few selections and some in depth thoughts on the big game, the Civil War FWIW.
ASU -10 vs UCLA & UNDER 46: I do not think that we'll be seeing much offense here. Both teams have struggled mightily for points. The only way I see the under not hitting is if ASU can open up some long balls so I see laying the points as somewhat of a hedge. However, ASU's strength is the pasing game and UCLA is very good against that strength with the 8th best passing D in the nation. The devils may be forced to rely more on their suspect rushing game which has shown slight improvement. 1 unit each
USC -32 vs ND: I feel like this line is inflated somewhat but I don't have the stomach to take ND. The total seems low but defensively USC should dominate. I believe that the only way ND covers this is if they can manage 2 td's offensively. I have a hard time seeing that. 1/2 unit
WSU +28.5 @ Hawaii: Last week I had pegged a WSU cover but didn't have the cajones to bet it. While I think this line is too high I wouldn't touch it. I've seen too many situations like this when teams use the end of year Hawaii game as a vacation. The cougs don't boast a lot of mental fortitude either. Think they come out and put up 14 or so and I don't have the faith that HA can or will break into the mid 40's. No Play.
UO +3 @ OSU: Many are on the beavs, they have played excellent football this year. They run the ball, defend the run and they do not make mistakes. On the surface this seems like an easy play for the beavs who seemingly have all the momentum to cruise past UO and all the way to the rose bowl. I have a LONG history of watching civil wars and if there is one constant it is that things almost never happen the way people think. I put a bet against the ducks last year in a game in which they were without 10 starters and starting a QB who was coming off a concussion and had less than a quarter of playing time in the year. Obvious play right? Nope, an outmanned Oregon team took the beavs to double overtime and covered the spread.
That is last year, what about this year? The one player on OSU's team who I think has been THE key to their season is most likely out. Jaquiz Rodgers. This RB is responsible for 70% of their rushing offense this year. In his absence last week the beavs offense struggled offensively.
This will be the beavs 5th game in a row and will be by far the most physical as all Civil Wars are. On the other hand Oregon is coming off a bye week and will be fresh and fully healthy for the first time in 3 years. There will be a matched intensity in this game. While OSU is playing for the Rose bowl the ducks are playing to get to the Holiday bowl and for pride. The beavs have won the past two years the Oregon players have had to hear about it. This duck team has excellent senior leadership this year, that matters.
I've written all this not to stake a bet but to demonstrate another viewpoint on the game. I consider this game a coin flip. As for the total I think the UNDER has a LOT of merit but I won't be betting it either as I can envision this game going into OT yet again.
GO DUCKS
