Pac 10 week 12

[UoweDucks]

YTD 28-24 (54%) +6.5 units
LW 3-3, 0 units

I am including a win this week for the Futures bet that I made on UW UNDER 5 wins for one unit. This can be found in my week one thread.

Well dammit, this year isn't shaping up as well as the last two years have unfortunately. At this pace it looks like my hobby is going to be just slightly profitable this year. Hopefully can catch a few breaks and make some hay in the bowl games...

At any rate last week was a disappointment on several fronts. My year long fade on WSU finally came to an end, I cannot for the life of me understand how WSU moved the ball on the cats. At one point they actually led in that game. My guess, AZ was looking ahead. UW showed some heart for a half. I actually had my finger on the second half ASU -7 bet but I just couldn't do it. Too bad. The ducks tried very hard to lose in the pouring rain but again pulled it out. If Oregon can hang on to the ball they could be a tough out for their final two opponents. Felt pretty good about UCLA after the first half but then the second half happened. At OSU Canfield seems to play in better control now and Quizz has been simply amazing. Glad that I steered clear of USC/CAL too many points...

This week just don't see that much that I like:

CAL +3 @ OSU: This is a real big game and I expect the home team to be really amped up for this one. Cal's defense may pose some challenges for OSU's running game thus forcing OSU to throw than they be more comfortable doing. I am tempted to take the home team here but I just don't see much of an edge. I still have a very hard time getting OSU's struggle at home vs ASU out of my head... Have to contemplate this game some more.

AZ +3.5 @ Oregon: I have been thinking for the past few weeks that AZ would be the play as Oregon's defense has been susceptible to a good passing teams. I still think that they have some issues but the defense has firmed up noticeably. Is some of that weather related? Undoubtedly but I also see improvement from the secondary in coverages schemes. That said this is the type of team that will give Oregon fits. The AZ fast strike offense really negates Oregon's biggest advantage on D and that is their D ends who lead the conference in sacks. On the other side AZ has shown struggles with good running teams and Oregon is certainly that. If the ducks can just take care of the ball then they will score in bunches. I am leaning AZ but will be much more interested in the total, this game should be high scoring affair.

UW +7.5 vs UCLA: That first half that UW played was inspired last week, they just can't close. UCLA is so Jekyll and Hyde that it is next to impossible to know what team shows up. Nueheisal is coming back to UW and I have to think he will be very interested in showing his old friends at UW that their handling of his situation was wrong. Most likely a no play on a side but maybe the total.

Stanford +23 @ USC: I sure like what Harbaugh brings to Stanford. They play very tough defense and have a well coached offense. I was glad to get the 14 pts last week with them vs Oregon and I think 23 is a few too many as well. Going to go small as Stanford does have a very weak pass D and think that it is possible that they could get exposed late. 1/2 unit

ASU -36.5 vs WSU: I was too busy to catch the better line. Now that the fading trend has been broken I have some second thoughts about going big. This game will be a sleeper from start to finish, like their fans I expect ASU to only be semi interested in executing WSU like the rest have. That said, what desire will WSU show on the road in a season which they just want to end. I will go small here. 1/2 unit

 

[Conan]

(Ducks, the mods will fix the title of the topic if you ask them.
I made the same mistake a few weeks back and they helped me out.)

 

[AlwaysKeen]

ducks,

feel the same way regarding the Cal vs. OSU game...GL this week...

 

[nd2000]

I was thinking UCLA might be a good play this week specifically because of their Jekyll and Hyde nature. Last week they looked like shit, and this week we should see good UCLA. Washington can make any team look good.

 

[Conan]

UoD, I wouldn't suggest that Cal's defense isn't something to consider strongly... but as far as what ASU was able to do on offense, it was all about Carpenter controlling the tempo a bit too much with short timed passes, like a pseudo rushing game. He is very skilled at what he does and he can be very annoying for a defense.

Riley is no Carpenter. He must be pursued and pressured a lot, even just to upset his rhythm. If they succeed there, they'll throw his game off the way everyone else with a decent pair of DE's and CB's has managed to do. Also Beaver DT Steven Paea has been very effective up the middle. He has been like a godsend shoring up their DL.

The edge isn't much but it's there. OSU wins the QB matchup if Moevao plays, not so sure about Canfield because Riley wins with better mobility... however accuracy could be another story. Can't just sneeze at Cal's QB issues.

 

[gynecologist]

I was hoping you liked the Ducks..

 

[UoweDucks]

UoD, I wouldn't suggest that Cal's defense isn't something to consider strongly... but as far as what ASU was able to do on offense, it was all about Carpenter controlling the tempo a bit too much with short timed passes, like a pseudo rushing game. He is very skilled at what he does and he can be very annoying for a defense.

Riley is no Carpenter. He must be pursued and pressured a lot, even just to upset his rhythm. If they succeed there, they'll throw his game off the way everyone else with a decent pair of DE's and CB's has managed to do. Also Beaver DT Steven Paea has been very effective up the middle. He has been like a godsend shoring up their DL.

The edge isn't much but it's there. OSU wins the QB matchup if Moevao plays, not so sure about Canfield because Riley wins with better mobility... however accuracy could be another story. Can't just sneeze at Cal's QB issues.

Morales out for OSU may cause the beavs to shift some guys around. I had said earlier this year how impressed I was with him. His loss hurts. I think its Canfield.

Gyno,
I think that the ducks will put forth a good effort and could in fact win the game. Particularly if they get up early and can run a lot of clock. I am concerned though if they get down and are forced to throw. Masoli isn't that guy. At this point I just don't have the confidence I need to lay points to AZ.

ND,
Maybe. We'll see on UCLA. Hard to bet them on the road. I have a lot of UW friends who think that the dawgs will play this one tough to show up Nue. Problem is I think that there is only one player on uw roster that was recruited by Nue and for the most part the players backed him.

 

[Conan]

Morales out for OSU may cause the beavs to shift some guys around. I had said earlier this year how impressed I was with him. His loss hurts. I think its Canfield.

Canfield is probable, but I'm leaving my wager on the table until that's confirmed Friday. If he plays, I definitely won't. If Moevao is ready, I'm in. Riley says Moevao is day-to-day. That's probably bullshit. Can't go by what Riley says about things like that.

Moevao brings leadership, Canfield brings himself. Lyle is also a pretty decent passer. I think 3rd in the conference. Canfield eh... 50/50 whether he'll make it through without a pick and throws for over 225yds. On the upside, Cal will have to prepare for both of them, one a lefty the other a righty. Maybe that's why Riley is being so vague about Moevao.

Latest word on Morales is that he will be able to play. His bruised hip was kind of a freakish accident but it wasn't serious. I read that he would play yesterday in a Corvallis newspaper. Very important info because Morales is worth at least a TD. I think Morales + Moevao = $$$ here.

Damn! Another key injury escapes me at the moment. Pretty sure it was a player on an opponent's team vs a NW school and I can't remember who. Hamstring pull. I think it was a Zona player? I'll update as soon as I find it again. In the meantime don't trust the details here. Might've been a Stanford player.

 

[UoweDucks]

ASU/WSU: I am going to add another unit to ASU. WSU has been hit so hard on D Line that they had to adjust their set to a 3-4 last week. ASU will have their best rushing game of the year.
ADDING: ASU -36.5, 1 unit

I am not as happy to see that total on the UO/AZ game at 59.5, was hoping for a bit lower so I won't play it. I have noticed that the line of the game has moved signifigantly though now at AZ +6. Earlier I would have thought that I would jump on this but I cannot get the confidence I need here. Oregon has had a VERY good week of practice and I honestly think that they are going to "want" this game more given the anger that many of the players feel toward AZ. Can you handicap desire? Perhaps anecdotally that realization has seeped into the line move, who knows. I will be at this game and know that the energy level is going to be very high both from fans and from players. That energy should feed the defense early on. So for lack of a better play in this game I am going to grab the UNDER 30 first half, 1 unit.

Oregon St./CAL: I see that both Morales and Moevo practiced yesterday but who really knows what percent Moevo is? If he is close to full go I would lean to OSU but since all this could be a smokescreen I won't make a bet. Too much unknown here.

UW/UCLA: I have tried in my mind to make a case for taking a side and I can't. No play. The under makes sense to me but just don't have the conviction to play it.

So that is it. May put a halftime bet from the UO game if I can get a cell signal, however in the past My carrier seems to get overwhelmed at the stadium during half and its hard to get a connection.... Best of luck to all this weekend!

Recap
ASU -36.5, 1.5 units
Stanford +23, 1/2 unit
Oregon/AZ UNDER 30 1st half, 1 unit

 

[ProphetablePicks]

I am on ASU large as well.... Only thing that concerns me is that Erickson is coaching against a former player for the first time so who knows when he will call off the dogs.. With that being said ASU needs a big home win for the fans as they have lost 3 straight at Sun Devil Stadium. ASU wins there next three they can go bowling but guess who will be waiting for them in Tucson to spoil that opportunity!





Hometown Drought

After winning its first two games at home to start the season, the Sun Devils have dropped three straight at Sun Devil Stadium.

They haven't won in Tempe since Sept. 6.

"We owe our fans something," Erickson said. "We have to take it upon ourselves, in our home, to play better than we've played, particularly last time we were here."

 

[ProphetablePicks]

another thing to keep in mind is that Wash State has the worst run defense in the country and ASU RB Keegan Herring is looking to impress the NFL scouts the rest of the season as he has been hampered by hamstring injuries all season. He is off his best game against Wash as he rushed 22 times for 144 yards. I am predicting he goes over 200 here!

 

[Conan]

ASU/WSU: I am going to add another unit to ASU. WSU has been hit so hard on D Line that they had to adjust their set to a 3-4 last week. ASU will have their best rushing game of the year.
ADDING: ASU -36.5, 1 unit

I am not as happy to see that total on the UO/AZ game at 59.5, was hoping for a bit lower so I won't play it. I have noticed that the line of the game has moved signifigantly though now at AZ +6. Earlier I would have thought that I would jump on this but I cannot get the confidence I need here. Oregon has had a VERY good week of practice and I honestly think that they are going to "want" this game more given the anger that many of the players feel toward AZ. Can you handicap desire? Perhaps anecdotally that realization has seeped into the line move, who knows. I will be at this game and know that the energy level is going to be very high both from fans and from players. That energy should feed the defense early on. So for lack of a better play in this game I am going to grab the UNDER 30 first half, 1 unit.

Oregon St./CAL: I see that both Morales and Moevo practiced yesterday but who really knows what percent Moevo is? If he is close to full go I would lean to OSU but since all this could be a smokescreen I won't make a bet. Too much unknown here.

UW/UCLA: I have tried in my mind to make a case for taking a side and I can't. No play. The under makes sense to me but just don't have the conviction to play it.

So that is it. May put a halftime bet from the UO game if I can get a cell signal, however in the past My carrier seems to get overwhelmed at the stadium during half and its hard to get a connection.... Best of luck to all this weekend!

Recap
ASU -36.5, 1.5 units
Stanford +23, 1/2 unit
Oregon/AZ UNDER 30 1st half, 1 unit

I think after all is said and done, I'll be sticking with Stanford too. May as well. Something tells me that they will play a very competitive game regardless. It's Harbaugh's way of doing things. USC is nothing to get too worried about as far as he's concerned. Maybe in the press he'll pay them homage but it ends right there. 3 TDs of separation is too much... perhaps the outcome will be a lot closer but Stanford needs to keep Sanchez and his receivers in check. Then again, it's not as if they've been burning up the conference throwing the ball. One thing I don't like about USC is Sarkisian. I never have, and I never will.

 

[UoweDucks]

One thing I don't like about USC is Sarkisian. I never have, and I never will.

You are not alone! Ask any USC fan! How funny to see Pete give such glowing endorsements of Sark for the UW job...

:nohead:

 

[Kiln]

I just finished reading my local paper, the San Francisco Chronicle, and there were a couple of good articles in there about the college game, a rarity to be sure. The Stanford game is sold out--1st one this year, but there's concern that a lot of those fans in the stands will be wearing a shade of red other than cardinal. The USC D is so good that I'm a little uncertain as to how Stanford will score anything more than FGs. The only problem I see otherwise is figuring out if the often sputtering USC offense is able to get it in gear. Sometimes they look horrible (see the Arizona game). Coupled with revenge factor, I think USC walks.

But the reason I'm jumping into your thread is to talk about the Cal Bears this weekend. I'm an alum and, as much as it distresses my wife (but what does she know about football, she went to Dartmouth for christ sake!) I follow the Bears pretty closely. And I've made a good bit of money betting against them. They lack, as the saying goes, heart. They're soft. And I think Tedford is the most over-rated coach this side of Rich Rodriguez. And the offense is a wreck (at least comparatively speaking). I'll let The Chron say it for me as it says better than I could:

"From the first three games to the past six, the Bears' offensive output has dropped by more than 150 yards and 18 points a game. Though they disagree on where the fault lies, those involved with Cal's offense agree that it has to be fixed by Saturday, when the Bears play at Oregon State. The Beavers are one of the conference's three teams allowing less than 300 yards a game and also yield less than 22 points a game."

The article can be found here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/13/SP391441M6.DTL

I'm surely not saying that one article in the local paper should make anybody's mind up, but I don't see a W in the cards for the Bears this weekend. I hope I'm wrong but I'm betting I'm not.

Good luck. I always read your threads and love your insight.

 

[GoSooners]

Ducks...I like your Oregon-AZ Under play for the first half...BOL this weekend.:toast:

 

[SureGuy]

any word on Mavaeo?

 

[Conan]

any word on Mavaeo?

Yesterday there was this:


Moevao Expected to Start Against California

November 14, 2008 12:30 AM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

A week of speculation ends with a mild surprise: Oregon State coach Mike Riley told reporters Thursday night that Lyle Moevao will start at quarterback for Oregon State in the Beavers' critical matchup with California on Saturday.
Moevao sat out the past six quarters due to a strained shoulder, yielding to backup Sean Canfield, who finished the job against Arizona State and started and won at UCLA last weekend.

Moevao still feels pain in his shoulder, and if he suffers a setback between now and then, Canfield will get the call. But Riley told The Oregonian that he's "pretty sure" Moevao will be ready to play.

 

[UoweDucks]

I just finished reading my local paper, the San Francisco Chronicle, and there were a couple of good articles in there about the college game, a rarity to be sure. The Stanford game is sold out--1st one this year, but there's concern that a lot of those fans in the stands will be wearing a shade of red other than cardinal. The USC D is so good that I'm a little uncertain as to how Stanford will score anything more than FGs. The only problem I see otherwise is figuring out if the often sputtering USC offense is able to get it in gear. Sometimes they look horrible (see the Arizona game). Coupled with revenge factor, I think USC walks.

But the reason I'm jumping into your thread is to talk about the Cal Bears this weekend. I'm an alum and, as much as it distresses my wife (but what does she know about football, she went to Dartmouth for christ sake!) I follow the Bears pretty closely. And I've made a good bit of money betting against them. They lack, as the saying goes, heart. They're soft. And I think Tedford is the most over-rated coach this side of Rich Rodriguez. And the offense is a wreck (at least comparatively speaking). I'll let The Chron say it for me as it says better than I could:

"From the first three games to the past six, the Bears' offensive output has dropped by more than 150 yards and 18 points a game. Though they disagree on where the fault lies, those involved with Cal's offense agree that it has to be fixed by Saturday, when the Bears play at Oregon State. The Beavers are one of the conference's three teams allowing less than 300 yards a game and also yield less than 22 points a game."

The article can be found here: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/13/SP391441M6.DTL

I'm surely not saying that one article in the local paper should make anybody's mind up, but I don't see a W in the cards for the Bears this weekend. I hope I'm wrong but I'm betting I'm not.

Good luck. I always read your threads and love your insight.

Thx for your comments nice to have another P10 alumni hanging around. Cal soft? I've certainly seen evidence particularly last yr and notably the drubbing by maryland this year and that awefull second half vs AZ! It should be an interesting game and the away team has been the winner in the past few years. Wish I could watch it live.

I've seen no more word on Moaevo other than he is starting. No idea how healed up he is...

Thx Gosooners best of luck to you this week!

 

[gynecologist]

Recap
Oregon/AZ UNDER 30 1st half, 1 unit

This play sounds good.. ope:


Good find:grandmais

 

[Wynn]

This play sounds good.. ope:


Good find:grandmais

Ouch. Oregon recovers from its amnesia and Arizona's D misses the team plane.

hno: