Pac 10 Week 10

[UoweDucks]

YTD 22-18 (55%) +7 units
LW 0-3, -3 units

Got skunked Saturday. Fortunately that doesn't happen to often but it seems like about once a year I get bit like that. At least I laid low betting the smallest amount of units I have all year.

As for the games who'd of thunk that the ducks would have scored more on ASU than both Georgia and USC did combined? Not me. Big move up for the ducks chances now with a what looks to be very capable QB play.
I can't hide my disappointment in losing my big bet of the day ND/UW over. UW never crossed their 50 until 6 minutes left to go in the game. Pathetic, that bet should have hit easily. I hear rumors now that Tye is going to resign. We'll see. I hope he does asshole.

This week hope to see a bouncback!

Oregon +3 @ CAL: Tedford has done very well vs his buddy Belloti in past few years. But this time he has the inferior team. I anticipate a very tough fight though. With Masoli now looking much more comfortable at QB the ducks offense looks as good as it has all year. I expect the Oregon run game to be the story of this on Saturday. CAL statistically has a good run defense but they have not played anyone close to the caliber of the ducks who are averaging 279 yards per game this year! CAL has weapons as well though and Oregon's defense will be tested, the health of Best will be a big issue. I think the ducks win outright but if not it'll be close. 1 unit

USC -43 vs UW: I should have known better than to bet a side last week that required the UW offense to actually execute anything other than a 3 and out. This week it's easy Pete will have to win impressively to bolster his BCS ranking. If Tye resigns I wonder what the line will do. This husky team has no heart though. 1 unit

Stanford -30 vs WSU: Missed a better number. I've laid the points every week vs the cougs and see no reason to stop now. The cardinal will run over them but this is a big line. Going small. 1/2 unit

OSU -13 vs ASU: What I have witnessed watching ASU now for their past 3 games is that there is a serious leadership void on that team. What had been a decent defense though finally capitulated this past weekend. They shouldn't have any reason to stand strong against the beavs at Corvallis in a night game I expect they'll roll over and finish the season out meekly. 1 unit

I do think that the totals could be interesting particularily in the UO/CAL game.

 

[jimmymo]

If Tye resigns I wonder what the line will do. This husky team has no heart though. 1 unit

TyWill just tendered his resignation, and will receive a $1 million buyout....some resignation....he will coach the rest of the year.

GL this week Ducks..

 

[Conan]

We're in lock step this week UoD.
Let's sweep it this week.

GL

 

[Conan]

Should be an interesting number in the Stanford/WSU game too. Kind of like USC this week vs. UW but on a lower scale. Let's see what's up here.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

With you on trees, beavers, and I would be on Oregon but my preseason regular season total wager doesn't allow me to.

GL

 

[nd2000]

I think Oregon State -14 is a pathetic value play. There are several reasons for this:

1. Arizona State was favored by 11 against OSU last year and covered at home. You are giving up a ton of value from last season in the number while the personnel on Arizona State is not that much different. Coming into the season, Oregon State figured to be weaker, returning only 3 starters from a very solid D last year.

2. What is so special about Oregon State?? Their numbers are impressive because they have romped Washington and Wazzu, two of the most pathetic teams known to mankind. ASU has not had the fortune of playing either one of those teams yet, and when they do, their scoring margin and yardage margin will improve as well. In OSU's other games, they were blasted at Penn State, caught USC napping as a 25-point home dog after the Trojans big win over Ohio state, and lost to a below average Stanford team. The same Stanford team that ASU obliterated.

3. Arizona State's problem is their O-Line. When they faced off against Oregon, Cal, and SC, their O-Line was overmatched, however when they faced a weaker D-Line in Stanford, they had no problems moving the football at all. Oregon State's D-Line is an average to below average D-Line for the Pac-10.

I think Arizona State can pull the upset here. All that has changed is the perception of the ASU team. At the beginning of the season, ASU +14 would have been a game of the year type material. But while ASU has been playing the Cal's, Oregon's and SC's of the world, Oregon State has been feasting on Wazzu and Washington (only outgained a pathetic Washington team by 70 yards!!!, not impressive at all!!)

Later, and good luck laying that much wood behind what will prove to be a very mediocre Pac-10 team by season's end.

 

[Conan]

I think Oregon State -14 is a pathetic value play. There are several reasons for this:

1. Arizona State was favored by 11 against OSU last year and covered at home. You are giving up a ton of value from last season in the number while the personnel on Arizona State is not that much different. Coming into the season, Oregon State figured to be weaker, returning only 3 starters from a very solid D last year.

2. What is so special about Oregon State?? Their numbers are impressive because they have romped Washington and Wazzu, two of the most pathetic teams known to mankind. ASU has not had the fortune of playing either one of those teams yet, and when they do, their scoring margin and yardage margin will improve as well. In OSU's other games, they were blasted at Penn State, caught USC napping as a 25-point home dog after the Trojans big win over Ohio state, and lost to a below average Stanford team. The same Stanford team that ASU obliterated.

3. Arizona State's problem is their O-Line. When they faced off against Oregon, Cal, and SC, their O-Line was overmatched, however when they faced a weaker D-Line in Stanford, they had no problems moving the football at all. Oregon State's D-Line is an average to below average D-Line for the Pac-10.

I think Arizona State can pull the upset here. All that has changed is the perception of the ASU team. At the beginning of the season, ASU +14 would have been a game of the year type material. But while ASU has been playing the Cal's, Oregon's and SC's of the world, Oregon State has been feasting on Wazzu and Washington (only outgained a pathetic Washington team by 70 yards!!!, not impressive at all!!)

Later, and good luck laying that much wood behind what will prove to be a very mediocre Pac-10 team by season's end.

I couldn't possibly disagree more. Just about every paragraph was about Oregon St. but mischaracterized with one shallow judgment after the next and little truth to it... maybe just enough to be dangerous. I hardly know where to begin taking it apart.

The post sounds like someone who hasn't followed a single article or blog about the Beavers and has quit reading after the annuals were printed aside from taking up stat sheets to cram an argument into a few sentences that make little sense. I can't answer to that.

I don't think this person has the vaguest idea of how this team's seasons have unfolded year after year because clearly there's nothing about how they start slow and finish strong... not to mention a major slide down in the quality of play by ASU that is CURRENTLY happening. And that's going to turn around for some unknown reason as they manage an upset... or just to make a case against the Beavers?

So nothing's changed except perception... you think?

 

[nd2000]

So nothing's changed except perception... you think?

Oregon State is a mediocre Pac-10 team. Obviously they can't be that great if they have come up as big underdogs to SC and Utah. By the way, i believe it was you who thought earlier in the year that Utah -11 over Oregon State was a solid play a few weeks back, so obviously your opinion of Oregon state has changed considerably since then. What have they done since the Utah loss? Blown out two high school teams. Big deal. Now let's make them huge chalk!! You are overreacting to one blowout loss that Arizona State had. Arizona State only lost by 10 at Cal a few weeks back, and Cal would be favored over Oregon state in all likelihood.

This is a classic what have you done for me lately line and the side very easy to play, Oregon State will probably be the losing side as well.

 

[clutch]

Oreg St opened 9 and got bet all the way up very quickly.

I don't see ASU tanking and giving up quite the way Washington is but there is no way in hell that they can be excited about finishing up this disappointing season.

Their confidence level has to be way low.

 

[AR_23]

-14.5 on CRIS right now. Value is shady

 

[gynecologist]

YTD 22-18 (55%) +7 units
LW 0-3, -3 units

Got skunked Saturday. Fortunately that doesn't happen to often but it seems like about once a year I get bit like that. At least I laid low betting the smallest amount of units I have all year.

As for the games who'd of thunk that the ducks would have scored more on ASU than both Georgia and USC did combined? Not me. Big move up for the ducks chances now with a what looks to be very capable QB play.
I can't hide my disappointment in losing my big bet of the day ND/UW over. UW never crossed their 50 until 6 minutes left to go in the game. Pathetic, that bet should have hit easily. I hear rumors now that Tye is going to resign. We'll see. I hope he does asshole.

This week hope to see a bouncback!

Oregon +3 @ CAL: Tedford has done very well vs his buddy Belloti in past few years. But this time he has the inferior team. I anticipate a very tough fight though. With Masoli now looking much more comfortable at QB the ducks offense looks as good as it has all year. I expect the Oregon run game to be the story of this on Saturday. CAL statistically has a good run defense but they have not played anyone close to the caliber of the ducks who are averaging 279 yards per game this year! CAL has weapons as well though and Oregon's defense will be tested, the health of Best will be a big issue. I think the ducks win outright but if not it'll be close. 1 unit

USC -43 vs UW: I should have known better than to bet a side last week that required the UW offense to actually execute anything other than a 3 and out. This week it's easy Pete will have to win impressively to bolster his BCS ranking. If Tye resigns I wonder what the line will do. This husky team has no heart though. 1 unit

Stanford -30 vs WSU: Missed a better number. I've laid the points every week vs the cougs and see no reason to stop now. The cardinal will run over them but this is a big line. Going small. 1/2 unit

OSU -13 vs ASU: What I have witnessed watching ASU now for their past 3 games is that there is a serious leadership void on that team. What had been a decent defense though finally capitulated this past weekend. They shouldn't have any reason to stand strong against the beavs at Corvallis in a night game I expect they'll roll over and finish the season out meekly. 1 unit

I do think that the totals could be interesting particularily in the UO/CAL game.

inferior? I think thats a little harsh..

 

[YJYJ]

I've grabbed beavers -12 on sunday night and feel very good about it.

Uoweducks, how confident are you with stanford? I know wsu performance this year is so embarassing they should just close their football program, but stanford laying that much point..? Hmm..

Same with southern cal.. I'd fade udub.. But i'll probably lay off on that game as well as usc failed to cover against lousy wildcats last week, and i'm not really impressed with their performance..

You and conan bring very good pac-10 insights. I appreciate your time/efforts!

 

[Conan]

Oregon State is a mediocre Pac-10 team. Obviously they can't be that great if they have come up as big underdogs to SC and Utah. By the way, i believe it was you who thought earlier in the year that Utah -11 over Oregon State was a solid play a few weeks back, so obviously your opinion of Oregon state has changed considerably since then. What have they done since the Utah loss? Blown out two high school teams. Big deal. Now let's make them huge chalk!! You are overreacting to one blowout loss that Arizona State had. Arizona State only lost by 10 at Cal a few weeks back, and Cal would be favored over Oregon state in all likelihood.

This is a classic what have you done for me lately line and the side very easy to play, Oregon State will probably be the losing side as well.

Wrong on all counts. And above all you have no idea what I know about Oregon State and have been talking about since last summer. I know this team better than anyone on this board, especially you. Try reading up on my posts before you try to figure out what I think. You have no clue.

And also, about ASU's perception being the only change on that team... what about the 5 NFL draftees last winter? Do you think losing that many players to the NFL off one team might mean anything? No... apparently not. You said as much yourself. Only my perception is different.

Maybe you should try picking on someone who has less knowledge about a conference than yourself. I eat and breathe Pac-10 football. I can hardly stomach your lack of knowledge and opinions.

 

[PUGDOG]

Longshore gets a couple a BJ to steady his nerves an comes out Sat. to rip Oregon a new a--hole. It could happen....lol=remember you heard it hear first...:lol:

 

[gynecologist]

Kevin Riley is the starter.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

ducks,

I have a ton of respect for your capping skills but I find it interesting that when you were on Cal two weeks ago, when Best was fresh off an arm injury, you made no mention of it in your write-up...now, you are on Oregon and Best is fully healthy and you make mention of it?...I just don't get it...at any rate I wish you luck this week even though we are against eachother in this particular game...

 

[nd2000]

Wrong on all counts. And above all you have no idea what I know about Oregon State and have been talking about since last summer. I know this team better than anyone on this board, especially you. Try reading up on my posts before you try to figure out what I think. You have no clue.

You may very well know more about Oregon State than anyone on this board. I don't doubt that. But, i find it very interesting that a few weeks ago you thought Oregon State was a good fade catching 11 on the road at Utah, and now you think they are a good investment at home laying 14 to Arizona State. Your opinions of this team seem to be flip flopping.

Oregon State has also won 5 in a row ATS, so their price is clearly starting to get very expensive.

 

[UoweDucks]

ducks,

I have a ton of respect for your capping skills but I find it interesting that when you were on Cal two weeks ago, when Best was fresh off an arm injury, you made no mention of it in your write-up...now, you are on Oregon and Best is fully healthy and you make mention of it?...I just don't get it...at any rate I wish you luck this week even though we are against eachother in this particular game...

Pags,
I don't think you remember my post correctly. First of all CAL was coming into AZ with a bye week so the fresh off injury comment is a bit off. Secondly I made mention of his injury several times. I'll link a post from week 8 in which I specifically alluded to the importance of Best's availability I even included an injury report. Based on everything that I was reading he was going to play with two full weeks of resting up. And when he did play into the 3rd quarter he was a serious factor. What happened wrong in this game. I didn't anticipate AZ being able to run on CAL like they did. I never would have thought that Keona Antolin, the AZ 3rd string RB could have shredded the bears... Anyway:

Well while I was hoping for points I do think CAL is a good play at pickem. I just don't think AZ can hang with these guys on either side. AZ dline is getting exposed, they have just 5 sacks on the year and this will be the best oline that they have faced. CAL should have plenty of time to pass and should do very well on the ground particularly if Best does play. On the other side Stanford did a nice job of taking away the TE Gronkowski. CAL should as well as their defensive set; 3-4 does bode well for them they can utilize their speedy linebackers to blanket the TE and force them to run the ball. Situationally this may be tough to do vs CAL as well as the bears rank 14th in the nation vs the run.




Not to much to report on AZ injury news.

On CAL (the availability of Best is a BIG deal):


Best could be available for California's visit to Arizona
October 13, 2008 12:11 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
California running back Jahvid Best, who dislocated his elbow on Sept. 27 against Colorado State, practiced Sunday and could play at Arizona on Saturday.
Best, one of the fastest players in the Pac-10, leads the nation in all-purpose yards per game (215.5).
If he can't go, his backup, Shane Vereen, had 93 yards on 27 carries against Arizona State.
It will be a considerable boon to have both Best and Vereen. Arizona's run defense is struggling. It surrendered 286 yards to Stanford and 221 to New Mexico, though both those teams relied more on power rather than speed.
Also of note: Cal quarterback Nate Longshore is nursing a slipped disc in his back, but coach Jeff Tedford said he will return to practice Tuesday, when he will renew his competition for the starting job with Kevin Riley.
The two quarterbacks will split first-team reps this week, and Tedford might wait until game day to announce a starter, as he did against the Sun Devils.

Secondly, as for this week, I don't see where Best is fully healthy (See cut and paste below). He just stated yesterday that his ankle was giving him serious problems. Not only that but CAL is in real trouble with other injury issues particularily on the line but I still have yet to see how SQT is. I'll detail these in another post but the injuries are meaningful. Oregon is essentially fully healthy and there are other reasons why I like the Oregon cover that have nothing to do with Jahvid Best's health. I'll detail more later.
Football: Quick notes

By Jonathan Okanes
Saturday, October 25th, 2008 at 5:50 pm in Gameday.
–Right tackle Chet Teofilo left the game after the first series with a sprained ankle
–Backup right tackle Matt Laird left with a shoulder injury
–Jeff Tedford once again said the quarterback position will be evaluated through the week for next Saturday’s game against Oregon.
–Jahvid Best is nursing a sprained ankle, and it’s actually bothering him more than his elbow.

 

[UoweDucks]

I've grabbed beavers -12 on sunday night and feel very good about it.

Uoweducks, how confident are you with stanford? I know wsu performance this year is so embarassing they should just close their football program, but stanford laying that much point..? Hmm..

Same with southern cal.. I'd fade udub.. But i'll probably lay off on that game as well as usc failed to cover against lousy wildcats last week, and i'm not really impressed with their performance..

You and conan bring very good pac-10 insights. I appreciate your time/efforts!

WSU and UW are almost permafades. The oddsmakers cannot get a line high enough for WSU and UW goes into battle vs the best team in the conference with serious infighting issues and a lame duck coaching staff. Trouble.
You are right about the USC failure to cover and the fact that it cost them in the BCS rankings I think is sufficient reason for them to lay an asskicking on UW.

 

[UoweDucks]

I think Oregon State -14 is a pathetic value play. There are several reasons for this:

1. Arizona State was favored by 11 against OSU last year and covered at home. You are giving up a ton of value from last season in the number while the personnel on Arizona State is not that much different. Coming into the season, Oregon State figured to be weaker, returning only 3 starters from a very solid D last year.

2. What is so special about Oregon State?? Their numbers are impressive because they have romped Washington and Wazzu, two of the most pathetic teams known to mankind. ASU has not had the fortune of playing either one of those teams yet, and when they do, their scoring margin and yardage margin will improve as well. In OSU's other games, they were blasted at Penn State, caught USC napping as a 25-point home dog after the Trojans big win over Ohio state, and lost to a below average Stanford team. The same Stanford team that ASU obliterated.

3. Arizona State's problem is their O-Line. When they faced off against Oregon, Cal, and SC, their O-Line was overmatched, however when they faced a weaker D-Line in Stanford, they had no problems moving the football at all. Oregon State's D-Line is an average to below average D-Line for the Pac-10.

I think Arizona State can pull the upset here. All that has changed is the perception of the ASU team. At the beginning of the season, ASU +14 would have been a game of the year type material. But while ASU has been playing the Cal's, Oregon's and SC's of the world, Oregon State has been feasting on Wazzu and Washington (only outgained a pathetic Washington team by 70 yards!!!, not impressive at all!!)

Later, and good luck laying that much wood behind what will prove to be a very mediocre Pac-10 team by season's end.

ASU has far more problems than their OL. I have watched the last three ASU games and from my perspective this team has as a serious leadership deficit. I think that they are packing it in. Carpenter has a broken bone in his foot, all of his WRs are banged up. And they have ZERO running game. The ASU saving grace up until this week had been their defense. I think that the D has capitulated. Sloppy tackling, crappy pursuit angles and overall lack of team speed and now no desire. They have lost their 5 last games. I wouldn't put a bet in on these guys particularily on the road in a tough environment.