PAC 10 PREVIEW

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Thank God. That took forever. If only the college football season lasted as long as the hopelessly pathetic and utterly unwatchable NBA. On the other hand, I have aged another year, which, although marginally wiser, indeed I am nearing the big 40...

As I say to you all every year, there is nothing better in sport than college football. Yet, without fail, my favorite past-time disappoints me and leaves a taste in my mouth worse than a night in Vegas downing 14 shots of Patrone Silver and two packs of Camels. The great USC¬LSU debate will end soon, as we seem to forget these things regrettably fast (remember Miami and Oregon). I’ll return to that debate at the end of this.

And, as I say to you all every year, once again, the most overrated football conference in the land will be the Big 9 (plus three bitches). This just might be the year that Texas loses two games and squeaks into the national championship because the national media hyperbole machine continues to reward this most undeserving conference with national championship bids.

But I’m all about the Pac 10, the conference, the one all of you east of Nevada believes to be the weakest of the Big 5 (Sorry Big East, you are no better than the MAC or WAC or Mountain West). You are all wrong, ask Texas, ask Virginia Tech, ask Michigan.

It will be difficult to bring any new insight to Pac 10 football to any of you who truly follow college football. It is hashed and rehashed and then regurgitated on every sports website, so I’ll give you my summarized thoughts on each team and projected finish.

1 - 2004 Pac 10 Champions – USC Trojans. At this point a no brainer. The talent level of this team could compete in the NFL. I’m not saying they would win, but the 2004 USC Trojans might just give the San Diego Chargers a run for their money. The Mike Williams Saga continues at the time of this writing, but I hear from USC insiders that he is out. Add to that losses on the offensive line and secondary and USC might hit some bumps in the road. But don’t count on it. All of the USC naysayers are missing the boat here, USC has been and is recruiting the BEST high school players in the country. Last year’s team will have no less than 15 future NFL players. This year’s will sport just as many, albeit a few new gems that we won’t see playing on Sundays for three or four years. And anyone that has had the pleasure of watching Reggie Bush play football, you know you are watching a faster, quicker version of Marshall Faulk, who isn’t that bad a ball player. Projected Record: 10-1.

2 – Oregon Ducks. I know Cal is the pretty pick here, and some publications seem to think Arizona State will have a bounce-back season. I’m hanging my hat with the Ducks, who finished very strong last year, despite a last-second bowl loss. This team returns a ton, including a huge offensive line. Kellen Clemens and Demetrius Williams are going to have break-out years, and Mike Belotti is a damn fine coach. Oregon upsets Cal to win the race for Pac-10 runner up. Projected Record (9 – 3)

3 – Cal. The best college football coach in the country is arguably Jeff Tedford. What he has done at Cal is nothing short of miraculous. And now he is bringing in some 5-star talent to go with the chump change he was left with from the previous regime. I for one think Cal’s going to have a rough go of it for a couple of reasons. One, they play a brutal schedule, including three straight road games; at Southern Miss, at Oregon State, and at USC. They do finish the season with four straight at home, so look for a strong finish. The other reason is depth. There has been a lot of talk about this being the deepest Cal team ever, but I don’t buy it. Tedford’s recruiting is just starting to bear fruit, which means there is still some fat left over. But, like I said, he is perhaps the best coach in America, and if anyone can turn fat to muscle, it is Tedford. Projected Record (9 – 3)

4 – Oregon State. Why? Because they always finish tied for fourth. This team lost a ton on offense, but still has a senior quarterback that threw for 4,000 years (and 24 pics) and one helluva defense. They also get USC, Oregon, Washington State and Cal at home. Why they chose to go into LSU on September 4 over an easy victory over Temple I have no idea. I wouldn’t be surprised if OSU limped out of Baton Rouge with one or two season-ending injuries. They win the civil war game against Oregon, but lose at least four. Projected Record (7 – 4)

T5 – Washington State. This team also lost a ton but always seems to bounce back strong. I think they have too many holes to fill this year, especially on offense. They do get Oregon, USC, and Washington at home, but it won’t be enough. The only blessing is a fairly soft OOC schedule that includes Colorado, New Mexico, and Idaho. Projected Record (6 – 5)

T5 – Arizona State. The media darlings. Sorry Prophet. This was a pretty bad team last year, and I didn’t see a lot of bright spots to think they are going to make that big a leap. Andrew Walter is a fine quarterback. But he’s not really a quarterback, he’s a punching bag. Last year he was running for his life the second the ball was snapped. The receiving corp was pedestrian, and the defense was awful. Have heard from VERY inside sources that this team is not enamored with coach Dirk Koetter. I don’t even know if they will finish above .500. Count at least three road losses at Oregon, USC, and Cal, and maybe even Arizona. Iowa and Oregon State are two other potential losses and this team is up to 5. Projected Record (6 - 5)

T7 – UCLA. If not for terrible quarterback play, receiving, and coaching, this team would have been pretty good last year. Look for marginally better quarterback play, receiving and coaching, and you have the 7th best team in the Pac 10. Projected Record (4 – 7)

T7 – Arizona. The past five new coaches in the Pac 10 have finished with .500 records or better, so why not Mike Stoops. Well, for starters, the cupboards are pretty bare. But this is a young team and I expect to see a 200% better effort now that the Mackovic abort….is over. Projected Record (4 – 7)

T7 – Washington. Kieth Gilbertson is the opposite of Jeff Tedford, and Washington deserves much better. Thank god they have San Jose State and Stanford on their schedule. Projected Record (4 – 7)

10 – Stanford. This is a bad football team. Baylor bad football team. You’re welcome for the insight. Projected Record (1 – 10)

There ya go. I’ll be back for my weekly Pac-10 play of the week, which was 11-5-1 last year including the bowl games. I’ve got early leans to start the year, and both involve taking 17 points.

Now, back to last year. Obviously I’m on the “USC would have beat LSU” bandwagon. But, unlike most of you who are pro-LSU, I take nothing away from LSU, which fully deserved to be the BCS national champion. They dominated a good, not great Oklahoma team. I personally think they proved more by beating Georgia twice. But I could say the same thing about USC, because Michigan didn’t show me much. Then again, they were playing the best team in the country.

I love the clowns that say LSU was better because USC lost (in overtime) to Cal on the road. Huh? LSU lost by 12 AT HOME to Florida, and last I checked, Cal finished with an 8-6 record and a bowl win, Florida 8 -5 with a bowl blowout loss. Schedule? I’ll certainly give the edge to LSU, but at least USC had to prepare for every game. I can’t imagine what it was like for LSU’s starters watching game film of UL Monroe and Western Illinois.

But lastly, and I touched on this earlier, while LSU had (and has) some fantastic future NFL players, five years from now USC’s will outnumber LSU’s 2 to 1….maybe 3 to 1. USC simply had more NFL-caliber talent than LSU. USC’s average margin of victory was over 25 points, and that was with the starters pulled in the 3rd Quarter. It was as close to high-school football I have ever seen.

Anyway, thems my thoughts, I’m pulling for all of you (Yeah, even you Richkas) to win big this year.

LATE!!!!!
 

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Great write-up!

I disagree with you saying the insiders feel Williams is out. Remember we are dealing with the NCAA and NOBODY can predict what they will do. Williams has NOT received his grades yet and the NCAA in my opinion is waiting for Williams grades. Otherwise they would not make Williams pay back all the money etc. and do paperwork. NCAA also will feel pressure from the NFL to let Williams back. Not saying Williams is coming back but I do not think anybody can realistically predict the outcome.

I was disapointed you did not mention RB Lendale White. He is my fav. Trojan RB and he is a Maurice Claret clone but faster. Bush is more talented but White is a better running back. USC is very inexperienced on the OL and you need a bruising RB who will hit the hole hard (white). You also did not mention freshman WR Dwane Jarret. EVERYBODY is saying this guy is a stud and WILL BE BETTER THAN MIKE WILLIAMS! He will be a star this year!

You also did not mention about all the key losses USC had this off-season due to injury/academics/suspensions. USC lost their #1 TE, #3 TE (hoops), #1 WR (williams) #3 WR Lews, #1 FB, and #1 OL all were expected to be big time contributors. GOOD LUCK PETE CARROLL!

I see you have USC losing 1 game. I am curious to who? I think if USC wins their first 4 games, NOBODY will beat USC in the 2nd half of the year. USC coaching staff is excellent and USC the last 2 years has been unbeatable in the 2nd half of the season. Everybody on the team will be experienced! USC also avoids playing any "ELITE" team on their schedule.

You did not mention in your Oregon report about the poor DB's and pass defense Oregon had last year and WILL HAVE this year. This will hurt Oregon a lot this year. They will be very vulnerable in the pass happy Pac 10.

I agree Tedford is a great coach but he is nowhere near being a top 5 head coach in the country let alone #1. CAL should be good this year since they are returning so much talent and QB Rogers is a stud.

I think you have Arizona rated too high. Not much talent at Arizona. I agree they will play hard.

I also think you have Washington St. rated too high. They lose a lot of players and they just lost their best player on their team in Derting for a few weeks. I will be very impressed if WSU finishes in the top 5 this year in the Pac 10.

I think Oregon St. will be very good this year and they have the best DB's in the Pac 10. QB Anderson is an INT machine but I think his experience will finally pay off and this will be Rileys 2nd year as HC. OSU plays solid defense and that is what will win games! OSU has amazing skill talent on offense so if their OL can produce OSU will contend as the 2nd best Pac 10 team. OSU will go as far as their OL takes them. (similar to USC)

As for ASU. This is a toss up. I will go with a trend on this one. I think 10 of the last 11 Pac 10 conf. champions have been lead by a SENIOR QB! Walter is a 1st round talent QB who is a senior. USC snapped that Senior QB trend last year as it was something like 10 in a row. Something to think about but I think ASU has too many problems on defense especially on the DL. Koeterr must produce this year or else he might be FIRED!

In your UCLA write-up you did not mention a VERY IMPORTANT dilema. UCLA lost all their starting DL and 2nd string on DL. They are DEPLETED. UCLA is in a world of hurt at the DL position and it is EXTREMELY difficult to win with a poor DL. I am also not impressed with their returning OL. However, reports from UCLA is that their new S&C coach has done fabulous job and increased the team strength. Could pay big dividends. You also did not mention their OUTSTANDING RUNNING BACK in Maurice Drew. The guy is a big time Stud. 3rd best running back in the Pac 10 behind Bush and White @USC.

*I agree with you USC would have beat LSU last year. LSU did not have a good enough offense to compete with USC. In addition, LSU was lucky to win 2 games last year while USC had ZERO luck all season.

*I also share your optimism on the future of the USC program. It is looking more and more like a future dynasty at USC. Back to back #1 recruiting classes and setting a recruiting record last year. Back to back BCS bowl games and USC has won 27 of their last 31 games along with 2 BCS BOWL VICTORIES! In my opinion, USC was the best team in the country at the end of the last 2 seasons.

Good luck this season in capping the Pac 10. I am very impressed by your Pac 10 record ATS. It is a very very hard conf. to handicap since their are upsets every weekend and so much parity in the conf.
 

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Scott - nice to see a 'cock fan in the house.

Like I said to start the thread, I wasn't going to rehash everything about a team that's already available on the net, just quickly summarize each team and projected finish.

A response.

USC - White is a nice back, and maybe as good as Clarett if he was a featured back, but for every play he makes in a game, Bush makes five. Why project USC with one loss? well, every great team seems to have one let-down game....I'll guess theirs come when they travel to OSU.

Oregon - Yes Oregon's defense was woeful at times last year, but their last three Pac-10 games they performed admirably, shutting down two good offenses in Cal and Oregon State. This team plays six of its first eight at home, with perhaps only one of those eight finishing with a winning record. Look for Oregon to be undefeated in Pac 10 play after their first five games.

Cal - difference of opinion on Tedford. He was arguably the reason Oregon was a perrenial top 10 team from 1998 to 2001, because they didn't have much on defense in those years. I saw what happened to Oregon's offense when he left for Cal, and like I said, what he pulled off at Cal with perhaps the worst talent in the Pac 10 top to bottom speaks wonders. Five years from now Tedford will be coaching at either a perrenial top 10 school (Florida...USC if Carroll bolts) or be in the NFL.

OSU....Amazing skill talent???????? They lost two starting receivers, their starting TE and their all-world running back. Derek Anderson threw for 4,000 yards because he threw 50 passes a game, and still only completed 50% of them with 24 pics. Now that Mike Haas is THE Man, look for teams to double him and make the Beaver's remaining lot of complete unknowns in the recieving corp prove themself.

And don't get me started on Mike Riley. This guy has had all of one winning season as a head coach in either pro or college football since he left Canada, and that is only because he inherited a LOADED OSU team last year from Erickson, one that he lead to an 8-5 record. I can't stress enough how bad a job he did last year with all of that talent on offense and defense. They put it all together in the Las Vegas Bowl, but they came from ahead to lose in four of their five games. Tedford would have had that same team at least in the Holiday Bowl. Riley's 1st top 20 recruiting class? 9 non-qualifiers or gray-shirts. Talk about smoke and mirrors. He's a nice guy, but he's painful to watch in a close match of wits.

All the rest...WSU, ASU, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Stanford. What can you say. One of them has to finish in 5th place. WSU is well-coached and there is a reason they have had three straight 10-win seasons.

I'm not sure how you can have a team ranked too high at second to last....maybe Arizona will be second to last all by themselves.

Yes, Maurice Drew is a stud...too bad he is stuck in that offense. I do look for improvement from UCLA...they could be the surprise team in the Pac 10. Dorrell's pro-set was to drastic a change in one year, but we could see huge improvement this year from that offense.

As for capping the Pac 10, It is a brutal conference to cap. However, USC has made me a not-so-small fortune the past two years. Linesmakers are going to inflate their lines this year....already a 17.5-point favorite in week one against an always dangerous VT squad. Chow is always conservative to start the year, so I'll be playing against USC in week one. But as we move into pac-10 play, I fully expect USC to be winning weekly by 25 or more...we'll have to see where the linesmakers adjust.

Good luck, and go 'cocks.
 

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WC & Scott, would be interested in your take on the BCA game vs. VA Tech. I watched USC pile up the points week after week and cover large spreads at home and on the road last season, and they certainly have the talent to do that again.

However, I'm leery of laying down 17 points on the road in the first game of the year. That's a lot of points, my friends! VT is one of those teams who can look horrible at times but then pull it all together and cover a spread just when you are counting on them to stink it up. Will probably just watch this one. GL Fellas.
 

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I'll give you some solid info and you can make your own decision. USC this season will have their best defense since Carroll took over. Remember, Carroll was DC in the NFL and he had #1 ranked defenses in the NFL. The guy knows his stuff. NOBODY will run the ball against USC as nobody has in the last 2 years. The DL is almost 3-deep and the LB's are easily 2-deep. V-Tech and Beamer love to pound the ball but you cannot, I repeat, CANNOT beat USC being one dimensional. Do you think V-Tech has solid passing game? Randall being mobile will help v-tech a lot because the USC DL and Lb's will be in his face all day, guaranteed! I do not feel V-Tech has ANY super skilled guys USC has to worry about. The weakness is the secondary for USC. The safety positions are great but the DB's are very average. Not bad but not good.

As for USC offense the huge question mark is the OL. USC is very inexperienced but SUPER TALENTED ON THE OL. I have watched practices and USC is going to have a very solid run game this year. The OL is having some trouble pass blocking. You also have to remember Chow is the OC and if the OL is struggling he will implement 3-step QB drops and that solves that issue.

My prediction as of now?

I see a very tight ball game, kinda dominated defensively. I will be suprised if USC dominates from the start. I think it will take the USC offense 2 quarters to get going. I do not think the V-Tech offense can score over 14pts against USC.

BEST BET might be taking V-Tech 1h and the under 1h.
 

Siempre vive RX
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Thanks for the insights, Scott. I'm still planning to sit this one out or bet small, but I will probably change my mind by gametime!

By the way, Ell Roberson and Darren Sproles TORCHED the USC defense in Manhattan 2 years ago by running the option ....but that was 2 years ago in a non-con game. And Cal moved the ball on them pretty good in OT when the game was on the line last year. Rare lapses by the solid USC defense. I suppose every team has an off week now and then.
 

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Great write ups WC. Always my fav conference to watch.
 

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WC,
Let's get this thing going! You and I will dominate the Pac Ten once again and cash in!.
I am so pumped that college football is finally here.ASU may surprise a few this year.I won a ton of coin going againsnt them last season but they will be better that much I am confident of.only problem is they play Cal,Oregon & USC on the road.Looking forward to yet another winning season!!


USC large chalk this week to get things going.Should be an interesting first game.Will have selection for it by end of week.
 

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I agree with Scott - play Hokies 1H only. USC should be rolling pretty good second half.
 

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