PAC 10 Play-On Games for 2008

[SoonerBS]

Just a preliminary note here, the PAC 10 is not my best conference to cap. I post at two different websites and there are guys I look and listen to on the PAC 10 that know a lot more about this conference than I do. This is strictly my opinion on these teams and games. For better information, I encourage you check out posts and threads made by jm1301 (CE), Conan (Rx) and UOweDucks (Rx).

USC

For any other team losing 7 starters off their program in offense, I would usually be getting ready to fade them. Only with a program like USC's would you be preparing to crown them National Champions. It's hard to imagine how Pete Carroll keeps all the 5* and 4* recruits happy through the years at USC, but somehow he does. And, whenever one of his big name players moves on, he just plugs another big name player in the hole. The cupboard is loaded at USC and even though he brings back only 11 starters from his 11-2 team of 2007, Pete Carroll will again have the team to beat, not only in the conference, but nationally. We all know this, so there's no sense arguing it.

-- USC at Virginia August 30th -- I've been on this game for a month now ever since i researched the Virginia teams woes. Virginia is a prime team to fade this season and even though this is a road game for USC, they are still a 28+ point better team than Virginia will be this season. My prediction: USC wins 42-10.

-- USC vs. Ohio State September 13th -- I don't know what the line will be on this game, but I am thinking maybe USC -6. We all know that OSU is solid this year, but we also know how hard it is to travel on the road and beat another team on their home field - especially whenever that other team is USC. USC scheduled a bye-week before and after this game whenever they scheduled it. Does anyone doubt where the Trojans' focus will be? My prediction: USC wins 38-28.

-- USC at Stanford November 15th -- Again, I don't play on a lot of road games, especially where the traveling team will be the favorite. But, we all remember what happened between these two teams last season. USC has another bye week scheduled after this game so they can give their full concentration to this game only. My prediction: USC wins 51-20. (I don't think USC will be -41 point favorites this year).

 

[SoonerBS]

California

Steele places California in the second place position in the conference. I don't. I lean more to Oregon being there myself. Still, it's easier for me to follow a set pattern on these things and I'm following Steele's magazine order in presenting these write-ups. My doubts about California lie on the offensive side of the ball as i think defensively they will be pretty solid. In fact, this should be a pretty decent team to play UNDERS on, especially in the first half of the season. I'll be very interested to see a TOTAL for the Michigan State game and the Maryland game. Back to my doubts about Cal's offense, the starting QB has not been decided on yet. It will come down between Longshore and Riley. They both have talent, but nothing hurts a team more sometimes than a QB controversy. Adding to that factor, they have to replace every WR starter from last season and will be inexperienced at that position. The RB will be a new starter as well, so the the skill positions are liable to struggle a bit for the first half of the season. Defense is solid though and should be better than last year's team. I also like the punter and kicker Cal's special teams have which is important in capping these teams.

-- California vs. Colorado St September 27th -- After two road trips and two tough games out of their starting three, California will have a bye-week before playing a home game against Colorado State. This will be plenty of time to get some kinks worked out and a week to work on weaknesses. CSU is down again this year and aside from a trip to Denver in their opener against Colorado, this will be the first tru road trip for the new CSU starting QB. Colorado State gave California a good game last season, but with only 12 starters back and a new QB, CSU will struggle in this game this year. My prediction: California wins 45-10.

-- California vs. Arizona St October 4th -- After what should be a rompfest against Colorado State the week before, California will play a tougher foe in Arizona State. California has a bye-week following this game while Arizona State will go to USC. It should be a good spot to catch Arizona State as Cal plays this game as their homecoming game. I look for a shortline between these two teams. My prediction: California wins 28-20.

-- California vs. Washington December 6th -- This is the end of the season where teams should be at their best. That would be true for both of these teams, but Cal is more talented and will play this game at home. Washington won this game between these two teams last year, so I look for Cal to return the favor this year with a more solid defense. My prediction: California wins 47-28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Oregon

Talent-wise and team-wise this is the second best team in the conference. However, it would be hard to rank them there this season due to them breaking in a new QB and RB on offense AND because of their schedule. They play USC, Arizona St, California and Oregon State all on the road. Still, this team has a lot of talent 2 deep at almost every position and it would be hard to fade them.

-- Oregon vs. Washington August 30th -- It's tough starting the season on the road. Last year, Oregon beat the Huskies by 19 points. The face of the Washington will not change much this season. Locker will still be the focal point of all the defenses Washington will play against. Washington will start the first few games breaking in a new receiving corps which will take some time to do. I think Washington will have a hard time moving the ball against Oregon, but I don't see it going that way for Oregon's offense against the Huskies. My prediction: Oregon wins 48-24.

-- Oregon vs. Boise St September 20th -- Listen to this stat, Oregon has gone 83-15-4 SU against teams from the WAC. That's impressive! This will be the first meeting ever between these two teams. Even though Boise St carries an impressive reputation with them, their team will be down this year. This will be the first road trip for Boise's new QB and he will be playing behind a revamped offensive line. Steele is full of shit ranking Boise 1st in the WAC conference this season and I am calling for a full fledged blowout in this game. My prediction: Oregon wins 52-21.

-- Oregon vs. UCLA October 11 -- Turnabout is fair play. Last season UCLA took advantage of Oregon being down after Dixon was lost for the season. They beat Oregon 16-0. In this game, Oregon has an opportunity to take advantage of the losses UCLA sustained in the offseason. UCLA will be down this year, and even though this game follows the USC game for Oregon they have a bye-week on deck. My prediction: Oregon wins 48-10.

 

[Conan]

I thought I'd just chime in a bit to see if you've looked at ASU for this year. Many are predicting their downfall into mediocrity, not me. It's just not like Dennis Erickson to backslide, especially close to the start of his tenure. He's very good at building programs with what he's given. If there's one school in this conference that's capable of giving Oregon a run for it behind USC, that school would be ASU. Erickson is one hellofa game day coach too.

To me, Cal is a dark horse candidate solely based on Tedford's reputation and history of being a competent football administrator. But their recruiting has been somewhat spotty. Harbaugh could account for some of the siphoning off of talent in the Bay Area, but there are other problems with the Cal program that have not yet resolved since Tedford arrived, mostly regarding facilities. There's been limited if any support from the school. Lot's of promises, no action. Offense is Tedford's strong point and especially his work with QB's. But with so many no-names on the roster, it's up in the air. I don't know where Steele gets his ideas.

 

[UoweDucks]

Not much to debate here. Good stuff. You put a lot of work in the offseason and I respect it immensely. I like the way you map these play on games. Things can get thrown out the window once the season began and injuries accrue but for now it is fun to speculate.

As for USC I am excited to see Sanchez. I think he is the absolute real deal. He isn't getting much love yet as most publications have Tuitama, Carpenter and Locker as the best in conf. That is BS. I think in the end none of these guys are better.

On Cal, keep your eye on the Riley/Longshore qb battle. I honestly don't think Longshore should be the guy. I like Riley and he would seem to fit their offense better. The team seems to be behind him as well but Tedford can be maddening when it comes to guessing who the qb will be. It will make game one vs MSU a very difficult event to handicap.

 

[Conan]

Just a quick synopsis about the conference... I think you'll get it.

1. USC

2. Oregon
2. ASU

3. Cal
3. Oregon St.
3. UCLA
3. Arizona

4. UW
4. Stanford
4. WSU

I feel very strongly that in the end, the standings will be sorted just as above with no specific order within each group. That's up to lady luck and injuries or perhaps scheduling to decide.

 

[SoonerBS]

Arizona St

ASU went 10-3 last season on a good schedule. Thia year's schedule doesn't promise to be so friendly to them, but they will still be one of the best teams in the PAC 10. This season's question offensively will be the same as last season's -- can the offensive line be productive and protect the QB. Last year they only produced 3.2 ypc and they allowed a horrible 55 sacks. It is remarkable that ASU was able to win 10 games and average 32.3 ppg with that kind of offensive line production. They replace a few players on the offensive line and they all have good size and ability. If they prove to be better, this team will be an offensive machine. The defense from last year was a very respectable 30th in the nation. They return the corps of their defensive unit and have a lot of talent in their depth. I don't look for them to skip a beat defensively this season.

-- Arizona State vs. UNLV September 13th -- I had to be careful picking this game because UNLV is expected to be improved this season and ASU has Georgia on deck. However, UNLV brings back 9 starters off a team that could only average 18 ppg last season and bring back only 5 starters defensively. Though they will be looking to improve in the Mountain West conference, they are not ready to contend with the likes of ASU yet. Plus, this game comes after a game at Utah the week before. Bad timing really for both teams, but ASU gets this at home and is the superior team. My prediction: ASU wins 44-14.

-- Arizona State vs. Georgia September 20th -- If the UNLV game the week before doesn't cash for you, double up on ASU in this game. Georgia will likely be ranked 1st or 2nd in the nation (provided they escape from South Carolina the week before this game) and they will have the bullseye drawn on their backs by every team they play this year. This is terrible scheduling by Georgia. They come off a game at South Carolina the week before this trip and they have a home game with Alabama on deck. ASU will have played 3 straight home games leading into this game and will be well tuned by this game. I'm calling for an upset. My prediction: ASU wins 31-28.

-- Arizona State vs. UCLA November 28th -- I think UCLA will be a good fade team this season with the QB problems they have, few returning starters and new coaching staff with new schemes. I don't even think playing on them at the end of the season will help. ASU gets a bye-week prior to this game and should have great gameplan to finish the season. Season finale and farewell party for the Seniors! My prediction: ASU wins 52-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Conan and UOweDucks, thanks for your comments and feel free to do so at any time. I take careful consideration to what you have to say . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

I thought I'd just chime in a bit to see if you've looked at ASU for this year. Many are predicting their downfall into mediocrity, not me. It's just not like Dennis Erickson to backslide, especially close to the start of his tenure. He's very good at building programs with what he's given. If there's one school in this conference that's capable of giving Oregon a run for it behind USC, that school would be ASU. Erickson is one hellofa game day coach too.

To me, Cal is a dark horse candidate solely based on Tedford's reputation and history of being a competent football administrator. But their recruiting has been somewhat spotty. Harbaugh could account for some of the siphoning off of talent in the Bay Area, but there are other problems with the Cal program that have not yet resolved since Tedford arrived, mostly regarding facilities. There's been limited if any support from the school. Lot's of promises, no action. Offense is Tedford's strong point and especially his work with QB's. But with so many no-names on the roster, it's up in the air. I don't know where Steele gets his ideas.

I was typing up my comments on ASU while you posted this. I'm glad we agree . . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

I'll finish the rest of this tonight. Time to go golfing.

 

[UoweDucks]

Arizona St

-- Arizona State vs. Georgia September 20th -- If the UNLV game the week before doesn't cash for you, double up on ASU in this game. Georgia will likely be ranked 1st or 2nd in the nation (provided they escape from South Carolina the week before this game) and they will have the bullseye drawn on their backs by every team they play this year. This is terrible scheduling by Georgia. They come off a game at South Carolina the week before this trip and they have a home game with Alabama on deck. ASU will have played 3 straight home games leading into this game and will be well tuned by this game. I'm calling for an upset. My prediction: ASU wins 31-28.

Wow!

ASU's biggest question is that O-line and it most likely won't be answered until that Georgia game so this is a gutsy call. Georgia led the SEC last year in sacks (42), ASU led the PAC10 this year in sacks allowed (55). Somethings gotta give!

 

[Conan]

Wow!

ASU's biggest question is that O-line and it most likely won't be answered until that Georgia game so this is a gutsy call. Georgia led the SEC last year in sacks (42), ASU led the PAC10 this year in sacks allowed (55). Somethings gotta give!

I have a gut feeling that those stats won't hold up 2 years in a row. I think GA's personnel problems are minuscule compared to ASU's, especially when ASU is on offense. But, it's not like a DE team to have such an enormous deficiency as they did last year protecting their QB. I doubt that will be repeated. Nevertheless, predicting an upset is a gutsy call... but to tell you the truth, the idea has crossed my mind. No doubt the Sun Devils will be 100% focused on this game. It could define their season. I'd either make a small wager on the ML or forget about it and just watch.

As an afterthought, if ASU does pull off the upset, I'd fade them for at least a month afterwards or until the exaggerated hype from a win like that cools down. They are going to be a very good team but I think they are a year or 2 away from knocking off USC... Sanchez et al.

 

[GoSooners]

Arizona St





-- Arizona State vs. Georgia September 20th -- If the UNLV game the week before doesn't cash for you, double up on ASU in this game. Georgia will likely be ranked 1st or 2nd in the nation (provided they escape from South Carolina the week before this game) and they will have the bullseye drawn on their backs by every team they play this year. This is terrible scheduling by Georgia. They come off a game at South Carolina the week before this trip and they have a home game with Alabama on deck. ASU will have played 3 straight home games leading into this game and will be well tuned by this game. I'm calling for an upset. My prediction: ASU wins 31-28.

The ASU-Georgia game is going to be interesting..I think ASU has a real shot here...Georgia hasn't left the South to play an OOC game in a long long time..So this is completely unfamiliar territory for this team..And I agree with BS here...This game may not be getting Georgia's full attention being sandwiched between two big SEC games. And this will be the 4th game of a home stand for ASU, which should really put them in their comfort zone here.. Much of ASU's success this season will depend on their new OL..But judging by their games with USC and Texas, in which their OL was totally dominated, their graduations may be a good thing in this case...At any rate, the pass protection for Carpenter has nowhere to go but up..I also look for ASU's defensive stats to improve a bit in Erickson's second year. It will be interesting to see what kind of line we get with this game. I've got ASU as a possible "play on" team this year because of their tough schedule in which they could be getting points in as many as 5 games this season..So i think they have a very good chance to improve on their 6-5 ATS record from last season. But with their tough schedule they're going to be hard pressed to get over 9 wins..But, if they should somehow knock off Georgia, one marquee win could completely change the direction of their season. I've seen it happen before with rising football programs

 

[SoonerBS]

Arizona

Arizona brings up a rant I've wanted to get off my chest: the dumbest category or subject I see on these boards is "Coaches On the Hot Seat." What are we suppose to do with this subject? Is the coach going to turn the team around in one season because he is in danger of getting fired? What can he do in one season he was not able to do in 3 or 4 seasons? It's a worthless subject for handicappers. We all knew that Francione and Callahan were on the hotseat last year, but they were not able to do anything different that what they had started 3 or 4 years earlier. The coach can't play the game. With all this in mind, Mike Stoops is on the hotseat this season. His only hope of remaining head coach is if the plan he started 4 years ago, and the new offensive scheme he implemented last season, finally takes hold and the players start winning games. Offensively this season, I think these things will happen, but defensively it looks like a rebuilding year. Stoops just hasn't seemed to get everything harmonized in the same year. The schedule works out good for him though and there is definite talent filling the holes on defense. IF the defense matures ahead of schedule, Arizona could be very formidable this year. Otherwise, they are going to have to rely upon their offensive unit outscoring their opponents.

-- Arizona vs. Toledo September 6th -- Line is everything in this game, but the MAC team will be a very good fade on the road. I look for Arizona to put up a lot of scoring on Toledo and should cover the spread. This will be Toledo's first game of the season and I'm sure they would rather be playing at home than on the road. My prediction: Arizona wins 48-21. (There's a possibility the line could be -28 on this game which is if it, I wouldn't recommend the play.)

I know I'll be playing on Arizona more this season, but I want to see how this defense is going to come together. Right now, I have to choose games based on how the offense covering the spread. The only game I feel comfortable doing that with is the Toledo game.

 

[SoonerBS]

Oregon State

There's been a lot of discussion on Oregon State already -- will they take a step back, or will they reload and not miss a beat. I tend to lean to the former. Whenever you lose a RB like Yvenson Bernard on offense, 7 starters on defense, and breaking in a new kicker and punter, you're going to take a step back. This is not USC where you have VHTs three or four levels deep. On top of all of this, I watched several Oregon State games last season (I loved betting the UNDERS on them) and I was not impressed with QB Sean Canfield at all. If OSU doesn't come up with a decent RB this year, every DC Oregon State plays against is going to send the house after Canfield. I'll be playing against Oregon State some this year, but I found 3 games I can play-on with them.

-- Oregon State vs. Hawaii September 13th -- Both these teams are in a rebuilding mode this year, but I think Hawaii has a bigger job to do than OSU. Hawaii is back to being a good fade whenever they cross the big pond to come into the mainland. My prediction: OSU wins 48-21.

-- Oregon State vs. USC September 25th -- Not only is this a Thursday night ESPN game, but Oregon State is likely to be a big home dog and USC has Oregon on deck. My prediction: USC wins 32-28.

 

[Conan]

Arizona

Arizona brings up a rant I've wanted to get off my chest: the dumbest category or subject I see on these boards is "Coaches On the Hot Seat." What are we suppose to do with this subject? Is the coach going to turn the team around in one season because he is in danger of getting fired? What can he do in one season he was not able to do in 3 or 4 seasons? It's a worthless subject for handicappers. We all knew that Francione and Callahan were on the hotseat last year, but they were not able to do anything different that what they had started 3 or 4 years earlier. The coach can't play the game. With all this in mind, Mike Stoops is on the hotseat this season. His only hope of remaining head coach is if the plan he started 4 years ago, and the new offensive scheme he implemented last season, finally takes hold and the players start winning games. Offensively this season, I think these things will happen, but defensively it looks like a rebuilding year. Stoops just hasn't seemed to get everything harmonized in the same year. The schedule works out good for him though and there is definite talent filling the holes on defense. IF the defense matures ahead of schedule, Arizona could be very formidable this year. Otherwise, they are going to have to rely upon their offensive unit outscoring their opponents.

-- Arizona vs. Toledo September 6th -- Line is everything in this game, but the MAC team will be a very good fade on the road. I look for Arizona to put up a lot of scoring on Toledo and should cover the spread. This will be Toledo's first game of the season and I'm sure they would rather be playing at home than on the road. My prediction: Arizona wins 48-21. (There's a possibility the line could be -28 on this game which is if it, I wouldn't recommend the play.)

I know I'll be playing on Arizona more this season, but I want to see how this defense is going to come together. Right now, I have to choose games based on how the offense covering the spread. The only game I feel comfortable doing that with is the Toledo game.

Stoops without a defense is unexpected. Arizona without a defense is a mind blower. What gives? I've been asking that question for too long and I don't think it's going to get any better. Unbelievable. But then there are stories abound in the state of Arizona about how Dennis Erickson at ASU cleaned Stoops clock out-recruiting him last year. If it costs Stoops his job, so be it. He's got one (trial) year left.

 

[SoonerBS]

UCLA

Things were starting to look good for this team in the offseason. They finally had fired one of the worse coaches that was still active at a prestigious school in Karl Dorrell. And, they made what I think will lead to be a great hire in Rick Neuheisel. He in turn hired one of the greatest offensive minds in the game in Norm Chow. They had 2 experienced QBs to fight for the position and lead the 2008 team. But, then both of them got injured in the Spring and may not play at all. (Olson might, but Cowan will not.) Then, UCLA's non-existent offensive line depth was dealt a significant and unexpected blow when starting right tackle Aleksey Lanis retired from football because of chronic knee problems. Several more injuries will limit the play of some back-ups. Add to this the fact that UCLA returns only 9 starters from last year's 6-7 team and you see a team that is likely to struggle this year in Neuheisel's first season. This being said, there is a lot of talent on this team, it's just a matter of when it will all come together.

-- UCLA vs. USC December 6th -- UCLA almost always plays USC a decent game. I think playing on UCLA at the end of the season is going to be our best bet because of the youth and inexperience that is present on this team. Motivation should be high in this game because since they will likely not be making it to a bowl game this season, this will be like their bowl game. They would love nothing more than bumping off USC. My prediction: USC wins 31-28. (UCLA likely to be at least a TD dog.)
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[Conan]

UCLA

Things were starting to look good for this team in the offseason. They finally had fired one of the worse coaches that was still active at a prestigious school in Karl Dorrell. And, they made what I think will lead to be a great hire in Rick Neuheisel. He in turn hired one of the greatest offensive minds in the game in Norm Chow. They had 2 experienced QBs to fight for the position and lead the 2008 team. But, then both of them got injured in the Spring and may not play at all. (Olson might, but Cowan will not.) Then, UCLA's non-existent offensive line depth was dealt a significant and unexpected blow when starting right tackle Aleksey Lanis retired from football because of chronic knee problems. Several more injuries will limit the play of some back-ups. Add to this the fact that UCLA returns only 9 starters from last year's 6-7 team and you see a team that is likely to struggle this year in Neuheisel's first season. This being said, there is a lot of talent on this team, it's just a matter of when it will all come together.

-- UCLA vs. USC December 6th -- UCLA almost always plays USC a decent game. I think playing on UCLA at the end of the season is going to be our best bet because of the youth and inexperience that is present on this team. Motivation should be high in this game because since they will likely not be making it to a bowl game this season, this will be like their bowl game. They would love nothing more than bumping off USC. My prediction: USC wins 31-28. (UCLA likely to be at least a TD dog.)
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I'd have to say that's a play on the coach because I sure can't name many names on the Bruiin team. (Cal either.)

 

[SoonerBS]

Washington

Washington brings back 13 starters off a team that went 4-9 last season. Will it be any better for Washington this year? No much, I'm afraid. The more I look at this team, the more problems I see for them. The only bright spots are QB Locker, the offensive line and the WR corps. This means the offense should be productive (although they would be a lot more productive if they had a decent RB to balance it out). The only thing is the defense was dismal last year and this year it will likely get worse as they basically replace the defensive line. They also draw an atrocious schedule. Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma to start out the year . . . . . . shit, I'd fire the offensive coordinator! I can't find any games for them to play on. I do think they might be a good team to play on OVERS though.

 

[SoonerBS]

I'd have to say that's a play on the coach because I sure can't name many names on the Bruiin team. (Cal either.)

In part it is, Conan. Good coaches can take a team and gradually help the players improve through the season. I think Neuheisal and Chow are capable of this. UCLA should be fadeable at the beginning of the season, but by the time the USC game rolls around, not only will they likely be big home dogs, but they will probably be playing the best ball they have all season.