Pac 10 Pick of the Week

[WCBias]

WEEK 5


YTD 2-1-1 – Pac 10 Game of the Week
YTD 8-14-3 – All Pac 10 Lined Games


Tough break last week. I knew right away things were not looking good when on <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State>’s first possession they punted and the ref’s overturned a fumble ruled recovered by USC and gave the ball to <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>. I saw three different angles of that play and not one showed <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> conclusively recovering the football in what was a 20-man pile-up. Then when <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State>’s touchdown in the 4<SUP>th</SUP> quarter was reversed, I switched channels to watch <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> State get their assess kicked by ASU. Splendid day for the state of <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>.

This week I like several games quite a bit. But only one can be the...
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PAC 10 PICK OF THE WEEK


UCLA - 21 vs. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on"></st1:State></st1lace>

UCLA has surprised most everyone this year. The talent has always been there, it was either the coaching or inability to execute that has been their downfall. This team is loaded with studs, as much as any team in the Pac 10 outside USC.

This week they get <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> after a week off. UCLA’s offense has been rolling, with the 4<SUP>th</SUP> rated scoring offense in the country (49 ppg), which includes a game against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oklahoma</st1:State></st1lace>. <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> is allowing 30 ppg; however, remove <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Idaho</st1lace></st1:State> from the equation and they are allowing 38 ppg. UCLA’s trifecta of Olson/Lewis/Drew are going to have plenty of success scoring against this Washington team, and see no reason for them to not hit the mid 40’s or higher.

<st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> can move the ball on offense, but they have problems scoring, averaging 17 ppg against all opponents not called <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Idaho</st1lace></st1:State>. They may get a little more here as UCLA’s secondary is still questionable, but I don’t see this being a competitive game whatsoever. This is <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State>’s first road game, and UCLA’s 3<SUP>rd</SUP> straight home game.
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Excitement is building for UCLA and they need to keep the momentum building. My only concern here is that UCLA looks ahead to <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> next week and pulls starters at the end of the game. But if they are up 44-10 late, and they just might be, that garbage TD Washington scores won’t matter a bit.
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UCLA is going to beat <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> next week too. The line will be UCLA -3.5 and they will win by 10.

Final Score: UCLA 51 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> State 17

REST OF THE PAC 10


The other big game in the Pac 10 is Southern Cal visiting the smoke and mirrors that is <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>. Smoke being their offense, because it is smoking, and mirrors being their defense, which is ranked 82<SUP>nd</SUP> in the country. ASU's secondary is going to get lit up this week. I don’t see USC having another bad half like last week, and USC will score here easily. Look for USC to have a special teams touchdown also. I’m not betting against USC again this year, I’ve learned my lesson. Here is a team I’ve paid my mortgage with the past three years and I bought in to the defensive losses being their downfall this year. Forget it, they just replace superstars with more superstars.

<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> moves on after its feeble second half effort to play a struggling Stanford team. You know, the team that just lost to UC Davis. Honestly, how many of you east of <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Colorado</st1lace></st1:State> even new there was a UC Davis? <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> is the far better team here, but <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> is starting to look like UCLA of years past. No wonder, UCLA’s brutal defensive coordinator Nick Allioti is now the defensive coordinator for <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>! And I’ll say it again, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> should not be running a spread offense. There is way too much talent on that team to look like a troubled high school team. And, there is way too much talent on that team to not beat Stanford by two touchdowns. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>’s offense breaks loose in this one.

<st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName>
<st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> plays host to <st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> in what should be the best game of the week in the <st1lace w:st="on">Pac.</st1lace> <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> has had its struggles against strong offenses and here comes another. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> always flies under the radar. They have the 9<SUP>th</SUP> ranked offense in the country. However, they have played <st1:State w:st="on">Idaho</st1:State>, <st1:State w:st="on">Nevada</st1:State>, and Grambling, so even against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>, this will be a huge step up in competition. And that goes for both sides of the ball, as <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>’s defense has yet to be tested. I’m on <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> in this game for several reasons. This is a must-win game for them if they want to get to a bowl game, with few winnable games left on their schedule. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>’s offense is good, but not Louisville/Arizona State good. And finally, <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> is going to score here, and I think they score enough to win the ball game by a touchdown. I just bought this down to 1 for -110 just in case.
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<st1:State w:st="on"></st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> hosts <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> and I’m leaning on <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> in this one for several reasons. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> hasn’t faced a team that plays defense yet. Not that <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State>’s defense has been all that great, but it is certainly better than <st1laceName w:st="on">New Mexico</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> or <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State>. On the flip side, <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State>’s offense has been a pleasant surprise, and I don’t think <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State>’s defense has been tested yet. So <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1lace> loses by two touchdowns, but still covers. I like 17 points, that’s a good number and you can get it for less than 110 at Pinny.

Final Predictions:

USC -16 at <st1laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType>: USC 55 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> State 34
<st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> -7 at Stanford: <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> 44 – Stanford 24
<st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> -1 (110) vs. <st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType>: <st1:State w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">OSU </st1laceName></st1:State>34 – <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">WSU </st1:State></st1laceName></st1lace>27
<st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> -17 vs. <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State>: <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> 34 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> 20

Good Luck to all.

 

[Insiders]

W C

Like your Pac-10 pick this week as UCLa looked pretty good in the Oklahoma game. Thats alot of wood my man. But if you think thats right side, then so be it. GO UCLA
I myslef really like the Az game catching ALL those points. Think Stoops D stops Cal this week. But that Pac-10 is the toughest condference for me to catch winners in there is. JMHO

 

[Conan]

OK WC, we've learned this...

When USC scores 45 it means they must have had a bad half.

When Oregon's offense is shut out, that will piss them off and it shows up the following week.

UCLA is better than their coach... much better.

Washington State's offense is rated 3rd in the nation. That means anyone who wants to be ranked should play Grambling, Idaho and Nevada in thier OOC schedule.

Cal-Zona is an Italian dish



.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

WC,

excellent write-up here...with you on UCLA...am also on Oregon (thanks Conan)...GL...

 

[GoSooners]

WC..Good write-ups. As always I'm rooting for our long lost DC from OU to get it done this weekend. GL

 

[Conan]

Gosooners, WC is right on the bead with this UCLA pick. There is a disparaging difference between these 2 schools. Playing at the Rose Bowl vs UCLA is another disadvantage Washington doesn't need. UCLA takes this one wire to wire. UCLA likes to run up the score and they should whup them by 4-5 TDs easily.

Pretty much the same thing going for the Ducks, however I can see Stanford lasting for possibly a quarter or so before Oregon gets to them. Oregon is clearly the better team and the score should reflect that. The line is much kinder here so I picked OR for my GOW.

 

[CAV]

Nice write up. I also like your pick on UCLA!

 

[OregonWiseguy]

Arizona getting more than two touchdowns catches my eye. I like the competitive fire that coach Stoops has and I don't think he will let his Wildcats get blown out. On the flip side of the coin Cal's offense is starting to click and they are a lot better than most thought they would be this year despite losing a lot of talent. I'd lean to the Wildcats. Thinking about jumping in if I can get it at +17.5. Good luck on your picks!

WC, on your pac-10 game of the week score you put Washington State instead of Washington. You are obviously thinking about the OSU game this weekend. GO Beavs! This Beaver game is critical for us to get an opportunity to play in Las Vegas Bowl.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

WC, if you don't mind me commenting on this one I'd like to (us west coast guys usually have similiar opinions)...my only concern with Arizona is their lack of a running game...I know they have Mike Bell, but they haven't been able to get him going...the first half of this one should be close, but it could easily get out of hand in the second half...Cal's pretty good, I like QB Ayoob...not to mention Lynch should get on the field this week at some point and the kid can smell the end zone...GL...

 

[hdaddy]

WC,

Nice work as usual. I like Oregon here as well as the Beavs.

I also think this is a good spot for AZ. The cats have had a week off to prepare and heal their starters on D (a few of whom they were missing in the Purdue game). THe passing game is starting to click a little more, and stoops was stressing being able to put the ball in the air against Cal. He specifically mentioned working on trying to find mismatches for Wood to get some passes. Another thing that was mentioned was the kicking game. Cal is going to have a long way to drive to score AZ has one of the best punters in the nation and their field goal kicking is greatly improved over last year. These two factors should help to keep the number within 17 pts.

This spot reminds me a bit like the Wisc game last year, (I only wish we were playing at home here). I think like that game they suprise and keep this one within 10 points.

Looking for 34 - 24 game here.

 

[silver7]

Wc

We`re lucky to have some really knowledgable guys for info from the left coast, you Conan, Pags, etc.. Any thoughts on SDST side & total? I played the Bruins @ 21, will climb a little I think, 21.5 @ Pinny now. Thanks for all the work you do.

 

[WCBias]

Silver7...BYU has owned SDSU...I think SDSU has only beat them once in their past 15 meetings. Should be a shoot-out, SDSU's defense is terrible and BYU's is injury depleted.

 

[mrpotter1]

WC, I really like this play. I think UCLA really steamrolls them today. good luck

 

[silver7]

Yeah the trends ARE bad, I played the O 56.

 

[Insiders]

Washington 10 UCLA 0 at the half...This team may not even win SU....

WHEW !!!!!!

 

[hdaddy]

Sorry about the AZ call. I truly thought we would play a little tighter than we did. Penalties and offensive mistakes killed us from staying within 17. Should have been about 28 to 10.


Glad I played both Oregon schools today and a little on ASU. Laid off UCLA but hopefully UCLA can still pull this one out.

 

[Insiders]

hdaddy

I for one wish i had layed of this pitiful bunch as well. But naturally i find a 21 when ALL the offshore joints are useing 24. Man o Man what a mistake this was.
UCLA may not even win SU, but probably come back in the 4th and win by field goal or something like that. WHEW !!!

 

[WCBias]

Washington got the 17 points part right. Thank God the Oregon schools came through this week.

 

[Insiders]

WC

Well thats 0-2 in the Best Bet department. Hope you got even with something else like last week. UCLA was NEVER alive here.

 

[WCBias]

Insiders...you like to point out my losses with emphasis. Is that your M.O.? Jock others, then when they lose pound on them? Or do you ever stick your neck out on a line and show your selections and why you are making them?

I'm a capper. Not a tout. Lots of other good cappers went the other way with Washington, I don't see you in their threads congratulating them.

I have no issues with you or anyone else disagreeing with my selections, but the past two weeks you've been a borderline stalker bitching about games I've lost. Trust me, no one feels as bad as me when I lose money.

You can always fade me brother, then you don't have to whine when I'M wrong and you collect the cash. Better yet, you can do your own research and pick and choose your own games.

Good luck next week.