Pac 10 Pick Of The Week

[WCBias]

WEEK 10

YTD 7-2 – Pac 10 Game of the Week

YTD 25-22-1 – All Pac 10 Lined Games

Nearly swept the Pac 10 last week but alas, <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> could not hold on in the end. Boy what a pathetic mess that team is. UCLA folded at the end of last week’s game at ASU and still covered, but I think they exposed ASU’s defense as suspect against speed teams. UCLA scored 42 even with Drew Olsen’s four interceptions. Which leads me to this week’s Pac 10 Game of the Week selection.

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
I struggled hard with this one but I feel both will easily win. But this was too hard to ignore:

2003 – 52-23
2002 – 38-3
2001 – 38-3
2000 – 33-9
1999 – 28-20

<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> -7 at. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1lace>

Hard to ignore those numbers up there, which represent the scores of the last five games played between these teams, all <st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> wins and all <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> covers.


Here are two teams heading in different directions, and <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> seems to step up against lesser competition, before floundering against better competition.

OSU’s offense is looking better in past weeks, with easy cover wins against <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> and <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State>’s defense should be more of a test; although this team has struggled the past three weeks.


But more important is <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State>’s anemic offense, which is averaging less than 10 points a game versus Division 1 teams, going against another solid defense. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> will score enough to win here, and it may only take 20 points to cover.

The only thing I see working against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> in this game is this is a look-ahead spot with USC on deck. But OSU is fully aware a win here gets them back to .500, with a potential bowl game if it can win three of its last four.

Final Score – <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> State 30 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> 17

Rest of the Pac 10

O.K. I’m not going to lie, I have more money on <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> this week than I do on <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>. I got this game out of the gate at -14. And like I said before ASU played USC, this team can’t cope with speed, and <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State></st1lace> has plenty of it. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> will fold up again this week against much superior talent and I see a three TD spread. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> is going to work ASU’s defense and ASU will simply not be able to keep up. Sorry prophet, ASU gets exposed again this week.

USC heads north to <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> and I think 24 points is a lot to lay. But it is the time of year when every game is scrutinized and maybe 24 points isn’t that much to lay considering the BS BCS jockeying going on.

<st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> gets a chance at payback against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> this week and I think they get it after last year’s debacle. <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> hasn’t really impressed me, squeeking out wins against <st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> and Stanford in recent weeks, but <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> is horrible, <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> hates <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> more than they hate <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>, and if they get a chance to rub their noses in shite, it will happen here. Guarantee there will be some northwest recruits at this game.

Stanford has covered something like six straight against UCLA so I’d take the points if I was betting this one. Stanford has by far the better defense. I mean, UCLA’s defense smells worse than a landfill. Check the status of Stanford QB Trent Edwards. If he plays, I’m on this game.
<o></o>

Final Predictions:

<st1:State w:st="on">Cal–</st1:State> 14 vs. <st1laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType>: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State></st1lace> 45 – ASU 24
USC- 24 at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>: USC 44 – WSU 17
Oregon-20 vs. <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State>: <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> 38 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> 13
UCLA-5 vs. Stanford: Stanford 34 – UCLA 31

Good luck to all.

<o></o>

 

[AlwaysKeen]

WC,

Good analysis here...agree that you are pretty right on here.

 

[hdaddy]

WC,

I have to agree with your analysis on this one. I am in Tucson and have been to many of the home games against Oregon St. in the past few years. Unfortunately I will have to play against the Cats on this one the Beavs should cover 7 easy. Support at home is starting to dry up as the kids are looking forward to the start of basketball (where U of A typically dominates) and I believe that if OSU gets up by a couple TD's early people will be heading to the parking lot or Halloween parties by halftime.

My biggest play this year against the cats was Utah at -13 and with that said this will be my second biggest. Looking for a 27 - 7 type of score here.

 

[jwunderdog]

WC, Is Cal that good? I don't get to see them, but that 15 # seems rather large since USC was only favored by 10 or so against ASU(although they kicked ASU's ass).

 

[muffinman]

Love the card.

Especially loving Cal. And yes, they are "that" good. Could be one of the top 5 teams in the country. They roll over an overratted ASU.

BOL, my friend:howdy:

 

[mhk]

Always like your reads, WCB.. Stanford as a su dog?? I'm already on it... gl..

 

[WCBias]

Thanks fellas...

JW...Cal is the real deal. Keep in mind, they outplayed USC at USC and were 9 yards away from winning that game. They are definitely on par with USC, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Defensivily they can shut down a team, as they did at Oregon State. UCLA scored on Cal using a lot of weapons in the air and on the ground, but ASU is completely one dimensional, with no run game to speak of, and if you get any pass rush on that team you will win because Walter is immobil and will start to force throws and make bad decisions.

Teams like Cal and Utah are playing with a chip on their shoulder, and I think they aren't just happy winning, but they want to destroy teams. Utah is going to kill San Diego State this weekend, put some money there. They could compete with any team in the country.

 

[sphincter]

can`t see any flaws in your logic...unless we have one of those weird weekends in which everything logical goes south...

in the pac 10 i was looking at every game you had except so cal.....and if pressed on the game,i`d probably have to lay the wood...actually,unless so cal takes a nap,this should be ugly...

seems like this year we have a handfull of teams that are doing what boise st did the last few years.....just grinding teams into the dust.....utah...so cal...cal...auburn.....louisville can be included when playing anything less than the elite..bowling green in the mac....

these big spreads are getting covered quite often..

nice write ups....the card seems solid from here...

g.l.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

WC,
I am on Oregon State as well.I think they will finish the season strong and AZ is just not very good.I am just about to post that game.still looking over the rest of the pac ten slate.

good luck

 

[sportsbet]

Class of the PAC-10 analysts on this site with WC and Prophet...how can you not play OSU here.

Good luck guys I'm on board.

sb

 

[hdaddy]

Couple updates from the local press regarding OSU/Arizona.
Freshman Kovalcheck to start at QB. This kid started last week against Cal and went 13-32 for 159 yds. He is very inexperienced,but Stoops sees him as the future and is giving him experience.

Also injuries Gilbert Harris RB Doubtful .. this leaves Mike Bell as the only solid RB playing. DT Paul Philipp questionable with shoulder and OT Brandon Phillips is out for at least 2 more weeks.

Gilbert Harris was out for the game against CAL and we all saw what happened. If he sits this one it really takes a link out of the U of A offense.

 

[WinOne]

WC,

Very nice looking card. I also agree, I think Cal rolls in the game versus ASU. Devils are good, but they can't compete against outstanding balanced teams like Cal or SC. Also add that Tedford has dropped 50+ in his last 2 meetings versus this same ASU staff that he knows well since they both have Oregon ties.
Also think Oregon just crushes Washington not just because they are better but this is one of those unknown bitter rivalries between 2 border states. Oregonians really despise folks from Washington (especially UW). Not sure I get that one as neither place compares to Tempe, Az. But they will crank it up a bit to embarrass the dogs. Ducks beginning to get some production out of the run game and UW cannot stop the run.

WinOne!!

 

[SureGuy]

As a Pac 10 specialist; Do you feel the same way I do about Oregon St. beating USC at home?

 

[bhg]

Any concerns about the injuries to Cal offensively? I see Markonnen is out - leaving just McArthur. I've got an OVER 59 ticket which I like more then Arz St +14.5 right now

 

[WCBias]

ass-muscle...you are so right, teams are running it up much more than previous years, especially the ones on the outside looking in who feel they belong on the inside.

Prophet & Sportsbet...good luck fellas

Hdaddy...thanks for the updates. Kovalchek is going to be a stud, but not here and not now.

Winone...Ducks also have revenge on mind. Ducks defense has been very solid and should contain the huskies. I'm a bit worried about the Ducks offense, which really has had any great outburst except at Washington State. Most of their games have been in the 20's.

Sureguy...hate to say it, but OSU does not have a prayer against USC. Look at OSU's performance this year against ranked teams. Hard to give them too much credit beating the also-rans and bottomfeeders. Derek Anderson has played well exactly never when they play a superior team, and Mike Riley is absolutely horrible at in-game adjustments and motivation. If USC gets on top quickly, OSU will crumble like they did vs. Cal. I'm hoping OSU lays the wood to Arizona so the USC game will be lined in the mid-teens. I'll be all over USC.

BHG...no concerns what so ever. ASU has got by all year with one receiver and a tight end. Cal's one receiver will be the best on the field...and they have an exceptional running game.