Pac 10 Game of the Week

[WCBias]

ASU - 9 vs. Oregon

Write up to come later this week, it is available NOW at Pinny.

 

[HoosierDaddy]

WC,

Do you think this line is too high? Or is this line designed to get Oregon money. I think ASU may be the right side here and Koetter is a great home fav, but this looks like a big number against a team with a great offense.

Thanks,

HD

 

[Conan]

Ahh cool. I'm on a different one. It jumped out at me like a shiny nugget.

I think the points here are manageable too. 13 would be pushing it but under 10 looks very doable. I may as well spill the beans and start working on the rest of the write up like you. Find my post elsewhere. I'll join in here some too.

 

[LEYKIS101]

GL WC Bias.

What's your lean on the Bruins/Bears matchup? I'm thinking the Bruins should cover the -2 relatively easy.

 

[WCBias]

Hoosier...not at all, I'm surprised the line wasn't a little higher. If you look at Oregon's bad losses the past three years, most have been teams that can air it out. Here are the past two years.

2004
Oregon State 50 - Oregon 21 (At OSU)
Arizona State 28 - Oregon 13 (At Oregon)
(oregon did hang with Cal at Cal in 2004)

2003
Washington State 55 - Oregon 16 (At Oregon)
Arizona State 59 - Oregon 14 (At ASU)
Wasington 42 - Oregon 10 (At Washington)

Note Arizona State has had Oregon's number the past two years.

Oregon's offense is better (although a lot of these guys played in 2004), but I also think ASU's ofense is better. I still think Oregon is feeling its way through the new spread offense. Defensively ASU is better than Oregon. Both have pretty bad pass defenses, but ASU's stats reflect games against LSU, Northwestern and Oregon State, while Oregon's include Houston, Montana, and Stanford. Oregon's pass defense might be ranked dead last if the schedules were reversed.

I know the always present "let down" spot exists. Just like the week after ASU blew its home loss to LSU then went down to Corvallis on a short week and dismantled Oregon State, and Oregon blowing a lead to USC and the next week destroying Stanford.

Finally, something happens to Oregon when they start losing or when there is a momentum shift. They just seem to quit...I've seen it too many times...I don't know if the players have an attitude of well, this ones over, or what it is. But more often than not when a better team gets on top of them they stop executing.

More to come, but I think there is a better chance ASU wins by three TD's than Oregon pulls off the upset.

Leykis, UCLA? Depends which team shows up, but I know who the better coach is here, and if this game is close in the end, Cal wins.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

WC, are you at all concerned that Keller may be banged up for this one?...he looked off in the second half...I just think these two teams match up very evenly and I give a slight coaching edge to Belotti in this one...

 

[Dr.Pepper]

Had ASU not folded/collapsed like they did vs USC - I would say the correct bet is ASU. Unfortunately, they will still be thinking about the game that could have been. Oregon on the other hand got healthy a week after USC, and reitterated that they can score points.

When the team is away from home, it sometimes seem as the pressure on the program is lifted. Whitehead should be back in the tailback slot, and with a strong showing from #1 true freshman in the nation RB Jonathan Stweart (3 TDs) - coupled with a strong showing from Jerimiah Johnson/Terrell Jackson/Jayson Williams (All unknowns before Sat.) - confidence has been rekindled.

Can't wait.

Ill take the points despite the numbers against them in this position over the past several years.

 

[WCBias]

Dr. Pepper...are you really going to take Oregon? Just kidding. I was laughed at last week for taking Oregon State...it was never in doubt.

You made a great point in another thread about Oregon's running backs. The future is Snoop, I think it would be in Oregon's best interest to just let him develop as the featured back after this year. I think they are going to try and pull off a Thunder and Lightning thing, but Stewart IS thunder and lightning. Maybe one of the other guys can convert to WR but there is young talent there too. I'm a little jealous of Oregon's prospects, but I have to admit, I am not jealous one bit of the spread offense. If Mike Riley had this kind of offensive talent OSU would go for 600 yards per game.

This game will come down to turnovers because both schools can convert. Keller is really going to enjoy seeing Hagan/Miller/Miller/Lewis versus Phinesee/Gipson/OR LB's. I guarantee he wont throw five pics this week. Oregon will need a severe pass rush to to keep ASU from scoring in the 40's to 50's.

This is a HUGE game for both schools. The winner stays in contention for a BCS bid. If either win out, I think the Pac may squeek out an at large bid with the NC game at the Rose Bowl (assuming USC goes undefeated). There are not two BCS teams coming out of the Big East or Big 12 this year. Maybe the Big 11 or SEC, but they are going to keep beating each other up and it's probable the runner up in those leagues will have 2 losses. That leaves ND, SEC (Vtech, Florida State, Miami) and Pac 10 for the two at-large bids. ASU has two losses but are still ranked in the top 20 so if they win out they should easily reach the top 10, as would Oregon if they win out (as would Cal and UCLA also). Its way to early to speculate, but the Pac has a good chance to land a second team in the BCS.

 

[WinOne]

WCB,

I enjoy your logic as always. I think the 2nd BCS bid goes to winner of Cal/UCLA this weekend as either of those teams runs table and only loses to USC. This game probably an OVER but IF, and I do mean IF, Duck come out and run the ball, they make this one interesting. I think Devils are extremely vulnerable to the run and would not be surprised if Devils give up a couple big plays this way and open things up to the pass. One final note...As mobile as Clemens is, why don't they design more half rolls with the run/pass option. With his mobility this is a huge weapon and could cause defenses fits.
WinOne!!

 

[Dr.Pepper]

Oregon did something we haven't seen all year vs Stanfordr. We saw one or two attempts against USC and that was it. The option/shuffle pass. Oregon also finally threw the ball deep. Only attempting one pass of over 30 yards in the USC game (don't ask why) -- it was completed for a TD. I believe Kellen completed 4 or 5 over 30 yard passes Saturday all to D-Williams.

Our secondary is horrible. We seem to have so many offensive prospects it just takes away from the defense. Looking back two years - I still wonder where we would be with Terrence Kelly (the De La Salle phenom who was shot and killed by his best friend the day before he departed for Oregon Summer workouts). He might have helped - if not solidified the MLB position, enabling Trucks, Vincent, and Haberly to rest and potentially move Vincent to Safety (Originally a speedy RB).

ASU -- what sorts of things are going on in their heads? Had the LSU game won - gave it up late (@ Home) --- Had USC on its back, in the gutter -- gave it up late (@ Home) -- those two losses are hard to recover from. You go from potentially top 5 in the country - to "what could have been".

Now on the other hand - had you asked Oregon and Oregon fans if 4-1 would be something we could live with going into ASU - I don't think anyone would say no. As for ASU, facing LSU and USC at home - with the talent on that team -- two losses isn't acceptable. Especiallly when your remaining schedule includes...a potent @ UCLA.

As you mentioned it's a must win. MUST WIN for both teams. It's going to come down to who wants it more -- if Stewart and Johnson can run like they showed they can in Palo Alto -- I like our chances to finally run the ball.

The week leading up to it can sometimes be as eventful as the game itself. It's been raining here all weekend and likely will all week. The team will be practicing indoors. (Maybe they can turn the heat up and simulate ASU's on field temp, ha)

 

[WCBias]

WinOne...I think too much is being made of ASU being vulnerable to the run. They did fine in the first half versus USC. They imploded in the second half, as has everyone else that played USC this year. The ASU defensive front and LB's are solid. USC has one of, if not the best offensive line in the country. So does LSU. Those teams are are going to run on anybody.

Oregon's offensive line is the weakness of the offense. They have four games under their belt, but I'm not going to put a lot of weight on their win at Stanford. Stanford just lost to UC Davis...they are not a good team. But it was a nice practice game for Oregon.

Dr. pepper...that was a horrible story about the kid from LA. But I don't think one kid would have solidified that defense. That secondary has been in tact for what seems like forever, some of those guys were in the system their freshman year. They are just not good. And I'm guessing that Ngata is getting double teamed frequently because I haven't seen him dominate like he has in the past. But then, I've only seen two Duck games this year.

I don't know what the whether will be at kick-off, but I'm sure ASU is hoping for high 90's.

 

[Conan]

Ats

4-1 Arizona St.
3-1 USC
3-1 UCLA
3-1 Oregon
2-2 CAL

The rest are sub .500 with Stanford being the only Pac team without a cover this season.

Just a trivia tidbit 4 U all.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

good thread here...

 

[GoSooners]

WC...Good luck on the your GOW. ASU I think is much the better team. They look like they play a more physical brand of football to me. They just got a hold of a buzzsaw last week. Man, I don't think anybody is better at making halftime adjustments than Pete Carroll. By the way I don't envy you guys who try to pick games in the Pac 10. That's got to be the hardest conference in the country to pick a winner. Much less try to get the spread. I know because I've tried the Pac 10 and failed miserably.

 

[OregonWiseguy]

WC, good game of the week!

I think Ducks have a let down in the 4th quarter and ASU pulls away to win in double digits. I won betting for the Ducks last week, I think it's only fair I win betting against them this week. I just got in at -10ASU, didn't want to see it get higher than that. Maybe I'll go for the UNDER if it gets over 70. I'm really getting anxious for the Cal at UCLA game also. Nice to have a BYE week and study the other teams in the comforts of home.

 

[TTinCO]

Great info!

I'll bite on ASU. Also expecting to hit ASU 2nd half based on the Duck D finally running out of gas.

ASU -9.5 (Sky with free 1/2)......Nine.com is also on 9.5

Jump if you want them, because the rest of the board is painted 10.

Let's roll! :toast:

 

[WCBias]

WEEK 4


YTD 2-2-1 – Pac 10 Game of the Week; 8-16-2 all lined Pac-10 games


Already posted the play, lets get right to it.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

ASU -9 vs. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on"></st1lace></st1:State>
Last week Sam Keller threw five interceptions as USC stormed back in the second half and ASU continued to shoot itself in the foot. ASU’s run defense disappeared in the second half. USC might have scored another 14 points if they just kept running the ball.


This was ASU’s second major 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half el-foldo in three games. Sandwiched in there was a nice win on the road versus <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>. Can they rebound in a similar manner against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>?

<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on"></st1lace></st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> bounced back from their loss to USC by putting up 44 on Stanford. Yeah…so. Now, I’m sure everyone here knows that I’m a former Beaver. But right now, what separates <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> from <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>? Both schools are 1-1 in the Pac 10. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> beat last year’s defending WAC Champion. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> beat last years defending WAC runner-up. <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> other OOC games include <st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> and <st1:State w:st="on">Montana</st1:State>, while <st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> played <st1laceName w:st="on">Portland</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Louisville</st1lace></st1:City>. Had Oregon played Boise State, Louisville, and Washington State, three of the most prolific offenses in the country, instead of Houston, Fresno State, and Stanford, Oregon’s defensive rankings would look a lot like Oregon State’s, which are about the worst in the Pac 10. My point? <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>’s defense is going to get exposed this weekend.

<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on"></st1lace></st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>’s linebackers and secondary are bad. They aren’t even mediocre, they are bad. And with LB’s Trucks and Tuitele, and DB Gipson questionable, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> might want to think about getting all those stud freshman running backs ready to play defense. Their defensive coordinator is Nick Allioti, and anybody who watched UCLA fold for all those years knows how bad a Nick Allioti defense is. Just pop in your UCLA at Miami game...it was epic. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> has a solid defensive line, but Ngata is going to be double teamed all night by ASU. Devan Long is supposed to play, which will boost the front four. Still, this is a team that will give up 40 points at least four teams this year, the second of which comes Saturday.

<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on"></st1lace></st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> has one good win this year. That’s it. They SHOULD have beat Houston bad, but they struggled. They SHOULD have beat <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Montana</st1lace></st1:State> worse, but they struggled, especially in the red zone. They SHOULD have destroyed Stanford, which also just lost to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Davis</st1lace></st1:City> (that’s a university). Keep in mind, Stanford’s best offensive weapon didn’t play. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> is just now getting into the teeth of their schedule and we will see exactly how good they are.


I will give <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> this. In their win versus <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Fresno State</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> showed a lot of heart, something we don’t see too often from this team. But we have also seen <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> struggle with the spread offense, struggle in the red zone, struggle on defense, especially against the pass. We’ve also seen <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> flat out quit when it gets behind. My earlier post in this thread shows some of those blow-out losses. There are more. I won’t say they quit against USC, but the only life I saw from that team in the second half was from their back-up quarterback and one great block by WR Finley.
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> has lost to the #1 team in the country and what was then the #3 team in the country. And I dare say had they been better coached, they would be undefeated right now. Does that mean they won’t have a let down this week? No, absolutely certainly possible. But I think ASU is for real. They are a legit top 10 team. And boy, do they get a chance to prove it this week. Oregon, ranked 25th, has beat four teams, which combined have a grand total of three collective wins over Division I programs.


On the flip side, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> does have serious weapons on offense. I’d love to see <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace>’s skill players with USC’s offensive line. The problem is they have <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State>’s offensive line, and that is a big drop off in talent from the OL that <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> saw last week. ASU was dominating USC’s O-line during the first half, and I don’t think <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>’s is good enough to make the in-game adjustments necessary to expose ASU’s DL. The <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> pass coverage will break down and Kellen Clemens will be forced to run for his life. Clemens doesn’t make many bad decisions, but the bottom line is ASU will get their stops. Also, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> is going to have to be more consistent in the red zone. Field goals aren’t going to keep you in the game when the other team is scoring touchdown after touchdown.


Despite the stats below, I’d say both schools have equal running games. I really like this young kid Herring on ASU. Likewise, I love Whitehead and Stewart for <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>. Stewart could be a future 2,000 yard rusher if he played in the Big 12. Unfortunately, he plays in a spread offense, so Duck Fan, enjoy the next two plus years because he is gone after his Junior year.


Here’s my prediction. Keller to <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Hagen</st1:City></st1lace>, Miller, Miller, Lewis, Muey Muff, Touchdown. Even that big tub-a-goo back-up TE is going to get in on the action this week.

Coaching. Edge to ASU. Two mediocre head coaches at best. But I sure like ASU’s offensive scheme and defensive coordinator more than Gary Crowton, the spread offense and Nick Allioti.


Strength of schedule - Clearly in ASU's favor. And keep in mind, ASU has already played against the spread offense this year.


For the stat mongers
Total Offense: ASU (4<SUP>th </SUP>556 ypg) – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> (16<SUP>th </SUP>466 ypg)
Passing Offense: ASU (2<SUP>nd</SUP> 386 ypg) – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> (10<SUP>th</SUP> 336 ypg)
Rushing Offense: ASU (41<SUP>st</SUP> 170 ypg) – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> (69<SUP>th</SUP> 130 ypg)
Scoring Offense: ASU (8<SUP>th</SUP> 43.2 ppg) – <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> (22<SUP>nd</SUP> 35.8 ppg)
Total Defense: ASU (105<SUP>th</SUP> 454 ypg) – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> (66<SUP>th</SUP> 380 ypg)
Passing Defense: ASU (95<SUP>th</SUP> 264 ypg) – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> (93<SUP>rd</SUP> 263 ypg)
Rushing Defense: ASU (98<SUP>th</SUP> 190 ypg) – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> (39<SUP>th</SUP> 117 ypg)
Scoring Defense: ASU (68<SUP>th</SUP> 26.8 ppg) – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> (71<SUP>st</SUP> 27.4 ppg)


If ASU gets up on <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> early, it’s a blow out. If ASU stutters out of the gate, they win by 10. If Sam Keller throws 5 interceptions, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> wins. I say its the former


Final Score
ASU 52 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> 27

And now, the rest of the story


UCLA killed me last week. Two weeks to prepare for the worst team in the league and one of the worst teams in the country and they nearly lose at home. Some here say they were looking ahead to <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State>, but the week before they played <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oklahoma</st1lace></st1:State> they won by 42 points. And preparing for a team that played for that national championship was just as big to UCLA as Cal is this week. Last week was a textbook example of a Karl Dorrell coached game, this time the team just overcame it. You’d think with all the positive press this team has got so far that they would be prepared every game. Not when Karl Dorrell is your coach. So this week they are home to <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> and some here have argued the wrong team is favored. I don’t think so. It would be easy to point to last weeks games (<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State></st1lace> pitched a shut-out, UCLA hurled a furball). But UCLA is a much more experienced team on both sides of the ball, and has played better competition the <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> so far, which has played four buttercups leading up to this. I expect <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> to be a bit exposed this week as not quite as good as some think, and UCLA to get back on the right track. I thought UCLA would have a tough time against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oklahoma</st1lace></st1:State>, a team that can run the ball, but the held AP in check for the most part. So I’m not so worried about <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State>’s excellent running backs. The pressure will be on Ayoob to step into the national limelight and I don’t think he’s ready yet. He also lost his starting left tackle last week. Tedford versus Dorrell is as bad a match-up as there could be. So if this game is close, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> will win. But I think UCLA comes out with a lot more life than they showed last week and hands <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> their first loss. Also, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> has been struggling on special teams, don’t be surprised if Maurice Drew returns a punt for a TD. You can get this at even (112) right now at Pinny. Worth the small buy.
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> is going to score at least 44 this week versus a poor Stanford defense. This shouldn’t even be close. Stanford just doesn’t have any offensive weapons whatsoever.


USC is a huge favorite against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> and I think USC’s second team wins by 40. USC will score in bunches here, Pete will get to play his stud second and third team, then they will score in bunches. Besides. There is unrest at USC after two straight less-than steller performances. Not a good week for <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1lace> to be playing the defending national champion. USC won 49-9 last year. I say each team scores a TD more.


Final Predictions:
UCLA ML (-112) vs. <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State>: UCLA 31 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> 24
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Washington</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> -13.4 vs. Stanford; WSU 44 – Stanford 17
USC – 37 vs. <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State>: USC 56 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> 17

Good Luck to all.

 

[Conan]

Pretty much how I figured the Pac to go this week too.

You didn't mention the UCLA LBs who stand a chance of containing or at least slowing down Cal's rushing game. They are very good. I will be watching how they do.

Just a comment about USC. Their offense is so good, even just a piece of it is enough to dominate the NFL too. Just ask anyone in Cincinnatti about Carson Palmer.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

and it's always important to note that Carroll always knows the number, especially at home...

 

[Conan]

**