WCBias
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WEEK 4
YTD 2-0-1 – Pac 10 Game of the Week; 6-13-2 all lined Pac-10 games
I'm going to keep changing fonts until I break out of this funk. Not a big slate this week, and most of my thoughts are spelled out in other threads. These line changes are killing me, I don’t have time to do this early in the week so I’ll ride Conan’s coattails…dude is posting shit up Sunday as the lines come down!
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1
lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">OREGON</st1:State></st1lace> vs. USC over 66.5 (right now at Pinny - my line is 63)
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
OK. The best offense in the history of college football (as some say, it's debatable) struts in to play against a defense ranked 100<SUP>th</SUP> out of 117 Division I teams against the pass, 59<SUP>th</SUP> in scoring defense, and 57<SUP>th</SUP> in total defense, and that includes a game against Division I-AA Montana. While I was watching <st1
laceName w:st="on">Fresno</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> throw for 440 yards against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> it occurred to me that Matt Leinart just might throw for 600 this week. If Oregon’s munchkin secondary had trouble covering Fresno State’s receivers, and oh boy, did they had trouble, exactly how are they going to cover Jarrett, Smith, Byrd, and that other guy…I forget his name.
<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on"></st1lace></st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> gets back DL Devan Long, who is very strong opposite Haloti Ngata, but so what. USC’s offensive line could replace the Miami Dolphins next week and it would be an upgrade. Count how many times Matt Leinart gets sacked Saturday. Countings over. I just don’t see how USC doesn’t get in the high 40’s here against a bad defense. I repeat, the 100<SUP>th</SUP> ranked pass defense in the country including a game against a Div. I-AA team. And yes, Duck Fan, we know your kicker showed well versus <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Montana</st1lace></st1:State>, but he almost cost the game for Duck Nation versus Fresneck and besides, he can’t play cornerback.
But here is the kicker (no pun intended), <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> has a fine offense themselves. In fact, I was so impressed with <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace>’s offense last week that I bought a Kellen Clemens bobblehead off ebay so I could rest my spitoon against it. I don’t really care for the spread offense, I think it is a gimmicky WAC or MWC ploy. It looks weird watching <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> run it, because I think they have NFL caliber players on that team and would be fine in a pro-set. Regardless, I don’t really think it matters what offense <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> runs, they would be successful. The biggest problem with <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace>’s offense is their O-line, but Clemens is sharp on his feet, fast, and if the pocket breaks down, see ya, he’s off to the races.
I’ve picked against USC twice this year and lost. If you think <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> can stay within the number you have to like the over. I think they can and will. Unfortunately, I have also seen <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> lay down if they start getting their asses beat, and that is a very real possibility here. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> is a good football team and should give Cal and ASU a run for Pac 10 runner up. Could <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> pull the upset…highly doubtful but Stanford almost did last year in USC's first road game and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> is much better than that team.
Weather forecast is for sunshine, high of 75..sounds like sunny california to me.
Final Score – USC 48 – <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> 31
Several others I really like this week
<o></o>
<st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName>
<st1laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> should beat <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> by at least a touchdown. I got this at 4.5 and I might buy more. Love the over too, as both team should get in the 30's. ASU has the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> best passing offense to go against the 99<SUP>th</SUP> worst pass defense (that’s right, one better than <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>). Last year’s OSU team was underperforming when they started 1-4. This year’s is just too young and not good enough to hang with the big boys, especially on the defensive side. ASU is for real, I can’t wait for next week. Dirk Koetter…maybe not. Some think ASU is looking past OSU, but when your last trip to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Corvallis</st1lace></st1:City> was as bad as Dirk’s, I doubt highly he is looking past the Beavers.
Notre Dame visits <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> and I’d say this game would be reminiscent of the Cal Washington game if ND’s number 1 WR wasn’t out. I still think Notre Dame should win by 20. There are a lot of intangibles. Will Weis call off the dogs out of respect for Willingham after he was unceremoniously shown the door last year? ND took a lot of heat for firing him and clearly he is coaching a bad team. Or does Weis beat the crap out of him to prove ND made the right decision. I just think ND goes out plays football and beats up a team it beat up on last year.
<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> travels to always dangerous <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">New Mexico</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> averages 44 points per game, NMSU averages 13. So I guess that means <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> covers.
<o></o>
That’s it. Painless.
Final Predictions:
Arizona State-6.5 at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>: ASU 44 – OSU 34
Notre Dame -12 at <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State>: Notre Dame 37 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> 17
<st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> -40 at <st1laceName w:st="on">New Mexico</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType>: <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> 44 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Mexico</st1lace></st1:State> State 13
Good Luck to all.
<o></o>
YTD 2-0-1 – Pac 10 Game of the Week; 6-13-2 all lined Pac-10 games
I'm going to keep changing fonts until I break out of this funk. Not a big slate this week, and most of my thoughts are spelled out in other threads. These line changes are killing me, I don’t have time to do this early in the week so I’ll ride Conan’s coattails…dude is posting shit up Sunday as the lines come down!
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">OREGON</st1:State></st1lace> vs. USC over 66.5 (right now at Pinny - my line is 63)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>OK. The best offense in the history of college football (as some say, it's debatable) struts in to play against a defense ranked 100<SUP>th</SUP> out of 117 Division I teams against the pass, 59<SUP>th</SUP> in scoring defense, and 57<SUP>th</SUP> in total defense, and that includes a game against Division I-AA Montana. While I was watching <st1
laceName w:st="on">Fresno</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> throw for 440 yards against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> it occurred to me that Matt Leinart just might throw for 600 this week. If Oregon’s munchkin secondary had trouble covering Fresno State’s receivers, and oh boy, did they had trouble, exactly how are they going to cover Jarrett, Smith, Byrd, and that other guy…I forget his name.<o
></o><st1:State w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on"></st1lace></st1:State> <st1:State w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> gets back DL Devan Long, who is very strong opposite Haloti Ngata, but so what. USC’s offensive line could replace the Miami Dolphins next week and it would be an upgrade. Count how many times Matt Leinart gets sacked Saturday. Countings over. I just don’t see how USC doesn’t get in the high 40’s here against a bad defense. I repeat, the 100<SUP>th</SUP> ranked pass defense in the country including a game against a Div. I-AA team. And yes, Duck Fan, we know your kicker showed well versus <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Montana</st1lace></st1:State>, but he almost cost the game for Duck Nation versus Fresneck and besides, he can’t play cornerback.But here is the kicker (no pun intended), <st1
lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> has a fine offense themselves. In fact, I was so impressed with <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace>’s offense last week that I bought a Kellen Clemens bobblehead off ebay so I could rest my spitoon against it. I don’t really care for the spread offense, I think it is a gimmicky WAC or MWC ploy. It looks weird watching <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> run it, because I think they have NFL caliber players on that team and would be fine in a pro-set. Regardless, I don’t really think it matters what offense <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> runs, they would be successful. The biggest problem with <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace>’s offense is their O-line, but Clemens is sharp on his feet, fast, and if the pocket breaks down, see ya, he’s off to the races.I’ve picked against USC twice this year and lost. If you think <st1:State w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> can stay within the number you have to like the over. I think they can and will. Unfortunately, I have also seen <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> lay down if they start getting their asses beat, and that is a very real possibility here. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> is a good football team and should give Cal and ASU a run for Pac 10 runner up. Could <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> pull the upset…highly doubtful but Stanford almost did last year in USC's first road game and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State> is much better than that team.Weather forecast is for sunshine, high of 75..sounds like sunny california to me.
Final Score – USC 48 – <st1
lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1lace> 31Several others I really like this week
<o
></o><st1
laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName> <st1
laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType> should beat <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> by at least a touchdown. I got this at 4.5 and I might buy more. Love the over too, as both team should get in the 30's. ASU has the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> best passing offense to go against the 99<SUP>th</SUP> worst pass defense (that’s right, one better than <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:State>). Last year’s OSU team was underperforming when they started 1-4. This year’s is just too young and not good enough to hang with the big boys, especially on the defensive side. ASU is for real, I can’t wait for next week. Dirk Koetter…maybe not. Some think ASU is looking past OSU, but when your last trip to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Corvallis</st1lace></st1:City> was as bad as Dirk’s, I doubt highly he is looking past the Beavers.Notre Dame visits <st1:State w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> and I’d say this game would be reminiscent of the Cal Washington game if ND’s number 1 WR wasn’t out. I still think Notre Dame should win by 20. There are a lot of intangibles. Will Weis call off the dogs out of respect for Willingham after he was unceremoniously shown the door last year? ND took a lot of heat for firing him and clearly he is coaching a bad team. Or does Weis beat the crap out of him to prove ND made the right decision. I just think ND goes out plays football and beats up a team it beat up on last year.<o
></o><st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> travels to always dangerous <st1
lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">New Mexico</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> averages 44 points per game, NMSU averages 13. So I guess that means <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cal</st1lace></st1:State> covers. <o
></o>That’s it. Painless.
Final Predictions:
Arizona State-6.5 at <st1
lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace>: ASU 44 – OSU 34Notre Dame -12 at <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State>: Notre Dame 37 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> 17 <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> -40 at <st1
laceName w:st="on">New Mexico</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType>: <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> 44 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Mexico</st1lace></st1:State> State 13Good Luck to all.
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></o>
