2003 PAC 10 PICS OF THE WEEK: 9-5-1 ATS Regular Season Record; 1-0 ATS Bowls
Pac 10 2-0 so far in the bowl season, and after today can really quiet the critics (where are you BernieVegas...I'm writing this from the Palms right now so if you want to meet for a beer tonight, I'll watch the games anywhere you want and debate the Pac-10's strength with you as they sweep the slate tonight)
Two plays today, with the Rose Bowl right around the corner.
Silicon Valley Classic
UCLA -3 Vs. Fresno State
Classic? You must be joking. Here is a game where one team (Fresno State) has everything to gain and another has absolutely nothing to play for (UCLA). FSU coach Pat Hill loves to punk the Pac 10, as he did this year against Oregon State. This will also be a virtual home game for Fresno State, as the game is played a couple hours drive from home, where there is a frenzied fan base. I expect about 50 UCLA fans at this game. Especially after their last trip up to the Bay Area, when they got punked by Stanford.
Almost makes you wonder why UCLA is the favorite? This is a perception thing, mid-level Pac 10 team versus mid-level WAC team. I also think the linesmakers are pretty smart, because UCLA will win this game.
Both of these teams have marginal offenses, Fresno State 75th and UCLA in the hundreds somewhere. Each have a few playmakers. (Watch Maurice Drew for UCLA, he is a Barry Sanders clone).
The big difference in this game will be the defenses, where UCLA has a decided advantage. UCLA's defense was ranked 21st, has the NCAA sack leader, his twin brother on the other end, a phenom at linebacker, Brandon Chillar, and a solid secondary led by Matt Ware, who suffered through the end of the regular season with injuries but is now healthy. This is a showcase games for these seniors, and they should easily shut down Fresno State, especially if the track is muddy.
Fresno State played a brutal schedule, with losses to Oklahoma, Tennessee, Boise State, Hawaii, and Colorado State (all bowl teams). They had a nice win against Oregon State, but outside of that the biggest win was against...Nevada? Wins against SMU, Rice, LA Tech, Portland State, and San Jose State, don't say much...UCLA might not be very good but doesn't really fit in with this group.
This is not going to be a fun game to watch. In fact, I've seen six or seven UCLA games and it is absolutely brutal watching this team's offense. Karl Dorrell has a lot to prove because UCLA has always been a freewheeling wide open offense, and now they are pathetic. But it should be just enough to squeak out a win against an outmanned, outmatched Fresno State team.
I also expect this one to go under the total, now at 44.
Final Score: UCLA 24 - Fresno State 17
Holiday Bowl
Texas -9.5 vs. Washington State
Say this about Washington State, they are certainly resiliant. The team loses it's fantastic head coach Mike Price (Alabama should have turned their head and kept this guy because he is heads and tails better than Shula), the majority of it's offense from last year's Rose Bowl team, and ends the season with a 9-win season.
This team is an enigma to me. Playing very well at times and stinking it up at others. But the bottom line is they win, and they do have some big-time players, especially on defense. This defense is the fastest in the Pac 10, they blitz like hell, and play in your face. But their aggressive style also allows for big plays, and I'm sure Texas will get some.
Texas had their usual woulda, coulda, shoulda season, and once again they are not playing in a BCS bowl game. Have you ever seen or heard more about a football team, it's players, and it's recruits, that has not won it's conference, much less the national championship in years. I hate Texas, their little longhorn handsign is the most gay tradition in college football...No I take that back, TCU's hand signal is.
But Texas is a very good team. However, the only good teams they beat with any authority is Oklahoma State and Nebraska, and once Nebraska falls behind, there is no catching up.
I see this game playing out a bit like the Texas - Kansas State game. Washington State's defense should contain Cedric Benson, but will give up some big plays to WR Williams. Likewise, I expect Washington State to get their points.
The Holiday Bowl has a history of wackiness and upsets, and quite often the dog covers. The last five games have been decided by 7 points or less. In fact, since the Holiday Bowl affiliation with the Pac 10/Big 12 started five years ago, the Big 12 team has been favored in all five games, have never covered the spread, and in fact, have lost two of the games straight up.
I'll ride that trend and say Texas wins, but does not cover.
FINAL SCORE: Texas 34 – Washington State 27
Good luck all and I'll be back on New Years day to cover the Rose Bowl.
Pac 10 2-0 so far in the bowl season, and after today can really quiet the critics (where are you BernieVegas...I'm writing this from the Palms right now so if you want to meet for a beer tonight, I'll watch the games anywhere you want and debate the Pac-10's strength with you as they sweep the slate tonight)
Two plays today, with the Rose Bowl right around the corner.
Silicon Valley Classic
UCLA -3 Vs. Fresno State
Classic? You must be joking. Here is a game where one team (Fresno State) has everything to gain and another has absolutely nothing to play for (UCLA). FSU coach Pat Hill loves to punk the Pac 10, as he did this year against Oregon State. This will also be a virtual home game for Fresno State, as the game is played a couple hours drive from home, where there is a frenzied fan base. I expect about 50 UCLA fans at this game. Especially after their last trip up to the Bay Area, when they got punked by Stanford.
Almost makes you wonder why UCLA is the favorite? This is a perception thing, mid-level Pac 10 team versus mid-level WAC team. I also think the linesmakers are pretty smart, because UCLA will win this game.
Both of these teams have marginal offenses, Fresno State 75th and UCLA in the hundreds somewhere. Each have a few playmakers. (Watch Maurice Drew for UCLA, he is a Barry Sanders clone).
The big difference in this game will be the defenses, where UCLA has a decided advantage. UCLA's defense was ranked 21st, has the NCAA sack leader, his twin brother on the other end, a phenom at linebacker, Brandon Chillar, and a solid secondary led by Matt Ware, who suffered through the end of the regular season with injuries but is now healthy. This is a showcase games for these seniors, and they should easily shut down Fresno State, especially if the track is muddy.
Fresno State played a brutal schedule, with losses to Oklahoma, Tennessee, Boise State, Hawaii, and Colorado State (all bowl teams). They had a nice win against Oregon State, but outside of that the biggest win was against...Nevada? Wins against SMU, Rice, LA Tech, Portland State, and San Jose State, don't say much...UCLA might not be very good but doesn't really fit in with this group.
This is not going to be a fun game to watch. In fact, I've seen six or seven UCLA games and it is absolutely brutal watching this team's offense. Karl Dorrell has a lot to prove because UCLA has always been a freewheeling wide open offense, and now they are pathetic. But it should be just enough to squeak out a win against an outmanned, outmatched Fresno State team.
I also expect this one to go under the total, now at 44.
Final Score: UCLA 24 - Fresno State 17
Holiday Bowl
Texas -9.5 vs. Washington State
Say this about Washington State, they are certainly resiliant. The team loses it's fantastic head coach Mike Price (Alabama should have turned their head and kept this guy because he is heads and tails better than Shula), the majority of it's offense from last year's Rose Bowl team, and ends the season with a 9-win season.
This team is an enigma to me. Playing very well at times and stinking it up at others. But the bottom line is they win, and they do have some big-time players, especially on defense. This defense is the fastest in the Pac 10, they blitz like hell, and play in your face. But their aggressive style also allows for big plays, and I'm sure Texas will get some.
Texas had their usual woulda, coulda, shoulda season, and once again they are not playing in a BCS bowl game. Have you ever seen or heard more about a football team, it's players, and it's recruits, that has not won it's conference, much less the national championship in years. I hate Texas, their little longhorn handsign is the most gay tradition in college football...No I take that back, TCU's hand signal is.
But Texas is a very good team. However, the only good teams they beat with any authority is Oklahoma State and Nebraska, and once Nebraska falls behind, there is no catching up.
I see this game playing out a bit like the Texas - Kansas State game. Washington State's defense should contain Cedric Benson, but will give up some big plays to WR Williams. Likewise, I expect Washington State to get their points.
The Holiday Bowl has a history of wackiness and upsets, and quite often the dog covers. The last five games have been decided by 7 points or less. In fact, since the Holiday Bowl affiliation with the Pac 10/Big 12 started five years ago, the Big 12 team has been favored in all five games, have never covered the spread, and in fact, have lost two of the games straight up.
I'll ride that trend and say Texas wins, but does not cover.
FINAL SCORE: Texas 34 – Washington State 27
Good luck all and I'll be back on New Years day to cover the Rose Bowl.
