Pac-10 Analysis Week 7

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3-3 ATS PAC-10 GAME OF THE WEEK

2-3 ATS Last Week, 24-17 For the Year all lined PAC 10 Games

I think between TB on Monday Night and South Carolina Last Night, I’ve lost enough money to buy a small used truck. I’ve lost on onside kicks, back-door covers, fumbles, hail mary’s…Hansen, if you are out there, I feel ya.

Short schedule this week in the Pac 10. Things are getting wacky out west, this conference might make me lose my hair. Still the most competitive conference top to bottom, and yes, 6 Big 11 teams in the Top 25 is a joke.

GAME OF THE WEEK (WEEK 7)

ASU +2 VS. OREGON

ASU sucks, Oregon quits. So why you might ask would I call this the play of the week? Well, there isn’t really a better play this week, although I did consider throwing up a number play.

I’m going to refer you to last year’s demise of the Ducks, which began last year on a sunny October day at Autzen against an unknown quarterback named Andrew Walter. On that day, with five minutes left in the 3rd Quarter, Jason Fife of the 5th ranked undefeated Ducks threw a five-yard pass for a touchdown and increased Oregon’s lead to 35-17. The next 20 minutes of football introduced Andrew Walter to the national spotlight, as ASU outscored Oregon 27–7 and won the game 45-42. Walter finished the day with 536 yards through the air, a QB rating of 160+, and exposed Oregon’s secondary as a total farce…which they continue to be today. Oregon went on and lost five of their next six.

One year later. ASU sits at 2-3, and until last week had not shown any signs of life on the offensive side of the ball. Walter’s best game was 277 yards against Utah State prior to USC; however, last Saturday Walter started to show some of the skills that got him some pre-season Heisman talk, throwing for 305 against a very good USC defense. And now Walter gets to face perhaps the worst secondary in the Pac 10.

As for Oregon. A pattern has emerged the last two years with this team…Overhyped…then reality. And similar to last year, Oregon worked it’s way into the Top 10 in the country after going undefeated through four games and beating another overhyped team, Michigan, barely. Then Washington State came in and blew them up winning by 30+ and throwing for 360 yards, despite the fact Washington State bumbled or fumbled the center snap on nearly every play!. Then Utah….UTAH, followed that up with 340 yards through the air. UTAH!!!

Now Oregon gets to face a team built around a true passer…one that is showing signs of life and one that is as dangerous as any in the Pac 10. Walter should go lights out and put up at least 400 and hang at least a 30 spot on the porous Duck defense.

So the question is….can the ASU defense hang with the Ducks. Well, that is a tough question. Oregon’s offense has been dynamic and anemic at the same time the past two weeks, and it may be time to abandon the two QB system. The Ducks will score, I just don’t think they will keep up with ASU.

I will take the home team getting points and hungry for a win against a team that has a bad secondary and should be throwing in the towel any second. ASU in a shoot-out.

Final Score: ASU 44 – Oregon 37

Rest of the Pac 10

UCLA goes to Arizona and is starting to show signs of life on the offensive side of the ball. Their offensive output against a good Washington D shows there are athletes on this team, and it was only a matter of time until they broke out of their funk. In the past four weeks UCLA has scored 24, 20, and 46, against three top 20 defenses (at the time) and now they get to go against one of the worst defenses in the country, the Arizona Wildcats. Now Arizona played with some heart last week, but still barely managed to cover 29 points. This week they play against another solid D and I don’t see them putting up more than two touchdowns. I think UCLA continues to show improvement and covers by a touchdown.

Washington, you are a bunch of lightweight pansies. I hope Nevada goes up to your nasty crib and drops another loss on you. Of course, Nevada couldn’t score a touchdown against SMU, and managed only one against UNLV. I’m staying away from this one, but if I had to bet, I’d take Washington in a rebound game. Careful though, Washington travels to OSU on deck and that will be a pivotal game for the Pac 10 championship.

The only other game is USC vs. Stanford. Stanford isn’t going to produce much offense here, but I wonder about USC at times. They covered last week, but they have looked great some weeks, horrible others. Staying away from this one also, but if I had to pick, I’d take USC just because I don’t see Stanford doing much offensively. This one could be 27-3 and you win the bet. It could just as easily be 17 – 10, and that is why I won’t bet it.

Final Predictions:
UCLA – 17 at Utah: UCLA 37 – Arizona 10
Washington -17 vs. Nevada: UofW 37 – Nevada 13
USC -21 vs. Stanford.: USC 34 – Stanford 10

Good Luck to all.
 

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from your analysis

wouldn't az st over
and usc under be good plays then???

thoughts...
90210
 

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90210

Have a big play on ASU/Uof O over at 56.5. I didn't post it as a play because the number has shifted substantially and don't want to field the "where did you get 56.5" question.

I don't even know what the total is for USC, but considering they have gone over the total the past two weeks, may be a good bet to pick them to stay under.

Good Luck,
 

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WC, I will be at the ASU game and this is without a doubt their season as they need a win in the worst way.Oregon is realing as well and I think ASU plays their best game of the season and ends their miserable three game losing streak. ASU-38-Oregon 28

As for the other games, I am on Stanford plus +21.5 (buy) as I think they hang close in this one in lose between 10-14 points. USC-28- Stanford-17

Wash screwed me big time last week so I hope they continue to fade at this point....


good luck!
 

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Winky,

Again you will be wrong in your ASU pick.
Oregon will cover. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball and will bounce back in a win against a struggling ASU who has lost three straight to better opponents.
 

I am sorry for using the "R" word - and NOTHING EL
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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by GordonGecko:
Winky,

Again you will be wrong in your ASU pick.
Oregon will cover. Oregon is better on both sides of the ball and will bounce back in a win against a struggling ASU who has lost three straight to better opponents.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

wrong guy - i have no clue on this game and haven't posted any pick on it - for i am not playing it at all.
 

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wc bias good call on asu
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gordon; homers are usually losers.
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