Overs vs Unders

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SportSavant

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oct 5th: 6 unders 8 overs 1 push

oct 6th: 1 unders 2 overs

oct 7th: 4 unders 3 overs

oct 8th: 7 unders 5 overs

oct 9th: 2unders 1 Overs

Total: 20 unders 19 overs 1 Push
 
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SportSavant

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I did the above real quick, can someone please verify for accuracy....
 
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VegasVic

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You are correct sir.


& Salami....2-2-1

(3-2-1 after tonight :103631605 )
 
SportSavant

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OCT 10: 2 overs 5 unders 1 PUSH

YTD: 21 OVERS 25 UNDERS 2 PUSHES




Salami 2-2-2 (counting it a push since early bettors lost & later bettors won)
 
TheCrusher

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I think the overs will increase over the course of the season. A lot of us were quick to jump on the overs out of the gate and the Books adjusted accordingly.

From the games I watched the power plays aren't really clicking yet and teams are still adjusting to some of the new rules. One of the big ones that I notice that helps is now being able to utilize a two line pass. I think as the season goes on and players get used to their linemates (lots of player movement this year) you'll see more two line passes for the odd man rushes.
 
Red_wing_77

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Is the concensus to stay off the overs because of the risk? I was looking at the Edmonton/LA over. My theory is that both the Oilers and the Kings have been lighting the lamp pretty frequently. It looks like this would be a 4-3 or 5-4 type game. There is no lack of scoring in these two teams and definetly not a lot of defense.


Another game to look at is the Stars/PHX under. Phoenix has not scored more than two goals in each of their games and though they added Geoff Sanderson for extra offense, but this will be his first game. I don't think he'll be instant help. The Stars offense has been up and down, but when they play a team that is weaker or even even with them, they don't score a lot. Their big games have come against Edmonton and LA (preseason and regular season). I say this one gets no more than five goals.

I'd like to get some feedback on this from those of you in the hockey know.

RW77
 
TheCrusher

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Here is some trend info on the games you mentioned.

<TABLE id=body_recentform_RecentFormTable style="WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 10%" align=middle>Team</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>SU</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Home</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Away</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Fave</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Dog</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SDB_TableData align=left>Edmonton</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>3-0-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>2-0-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-0-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>2-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>2-0-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SDB_TableData align=left>Los Angeles</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>2-1-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>2-0-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>0-1-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>2-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>0-1</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

On this one it looks like 6.5 at the books that I checked.

<TABLE id=body_recentform_RecentFormTable style="WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 10%" align=middle>Team</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>SU</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Home</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Away</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Fave</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>Dog</TD><TD class=SDB_TableDataBoldFill style="WIDTH: 9%" align=middle>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SDB_TableData align=left>Phoenix</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-2-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-0-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>0-2-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>0-2</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>0-3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SDB_TableData align=left>Dallas</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-1-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-1-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>0-0-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-1</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>0-0</TD><TD class=SDB_TableData align=middle>1-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This looks like 6 with just one book at 6.5 and that was Sportsinteraction. Based on the trends both look decent, but get to SportsInteraction and get the 6.5 if you can.

Good Luck
 
SportSavant

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looks like we are looking at 5 unders & 0 overs for today..... (LA Kings game pending)
 
VegasVic

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In case you missed it from covers.com:



Books score big on NHL`s opening week

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=290 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smtext2 width="100%" colSpan=2>Josh Hansen</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Cross the first week off the NHL calendar and mark one up for sportsbooks while you’re at it.

Betting shops have made a killing so far this season while many bettors were sucked into the NHL’s promise that new rule changes would bring higher scoring games. Though scoring is up nearly half a goal (3.18 compared 2.58 in 2003-2004), it hasn’t been the drastic increase that many were anticipating.

The result has meant an ugly 8-20 record for over backers since opening night as oddsmakers have adjusted the totals, with the average sitting at 6 1/2 goals. And according to one Bodog.com linesmaker, their action has far outweighed that of their under counterparts.

“There has been a lot more action coming in on the over,” says Bodog’s Sebastien Chalmers. “We’ve noticed it’s starting to flatten out a little bit but that was a bettor’s inclination there.” You can’t really blame them either.

Teams like the Philadelphia Flyers, Ottawa Senators and Vancouver Canucks are all offensively driven teams, loaded with NHL talent. But they`ve combined to play over their posted totals in just three of their nine games, leaving many in the poor house.


The reason, says Chalmers, is likely because a lot of players are still finding their legs after an extended off season. Contract disputes between players and owners resulted in a lockout after the 2004 season, which was eventually cancelled.

The two sides reached an agreement this past summer, but the lack of conditioning and consistent playing time has obviously taken its toll. A handful of players were fortunate to play in Europe or with their NHL affiliates, but with 24 players on each team, it`s unrealistic to think everyone is going to come back on the same page.

Until they do, Chalmers doesn’t expect to see as much action from over backers. “I think that depends a lot what’s going to on during the games,” says Chalmers. “We may start seeing some more overs when players get their legs back and start playing at the same level again.”
 
VegasVic

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I've put the salami on the back burner for the last couple days but I have to admit it looks tempting for tomorrow.
 
SportSavant

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The result has meant an ugly 8-20 record for over backers since opening night as oddsmakers have adjusted the totals,
:ughhh:
 
SportSavant

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remember what I was saying weeks before the season VIC, look to go contrarion in relation to these over/unders....

the sharpest of the sharp have been on the unders so far this year....

of course with so many of the games falling near the total it only takes one or two blow outs for the salami to go over, however, with all of that PLUS VIG, unders have been money...
 
VegasVic

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SportSavant said:
remember what I was saying weeks before the season VIC, look to go contrarion in relation to these over/unders....

the sharpest of the sharp have been on the unders so far this year....

of course with so many of the games falling near the total it only takes one or two blow outs for the salami to go over, however, with all of that PLUS VIG, unders have been money...

I'm beginning to believe.
 
SportSavant

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TUESDAY RECAP: 0 Overs 5 Unders

YTD RECAP: 21 OVERS 30 UNDERS 2 PUSHES

SALAMI RECAP: 2 Overs 3 Unders 2 Pushes
 
VegasVic

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SportSavant said:
remember what I was saying weeks before the season VIC, look to go contrarion in relation to these over/unders....

Here's something to ponder. If everyone is pounding the under than wouldn't the contrarian play be on the over?

(just playing savant)
 
SportSavant

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VegasVic said:
Here's something to ponder. If everyone is pounding the under than wouldn't the contrarian play be on the over?

(just playing savant)

but as we both know, everyone is NOT pounding the under, everyone is pounding the over, We are seeing many high scoring games, we are hearing about all the extra goals on TV... we are hearing how scoring is up 40%....

bettors have thus been fooled (as I predicted would happen) into betting the overs.... & are likely to continue to bet the overs for a while....

the bookies have adjusted with lines of 6 & 6.5 & in many cases shading the over offering PLUS vig on the under.... bettors are still taking the over & are losing when their teams score 5 or 6 goals.
 

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Who is pounding the under on certain games, as I've watched the line moves and the percent of bets on the over, is the sharps. Last nights late game a prime example, 60% of the bets on the over, but major movement on the vig to the under in the last ten minutes before gametime.
 
ValueBets+

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If majority was on the OVER in the late game. And like you said decimal odds(not too confuse myself) dropped significantly on the UNDER. Then those that most likely know there stuff. Bet Under and profited easily.
 
ClubmanCoop

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SportSavant said:
but as we both know, everyone is NOT pounding the under, everyone is pounding the over, We are seeing many high scoring games, we are hearing about all the extra goals on TV... we are hearing how scoring is up 40%....

bettors have thus been fooled (as I predicted would happen) into betting the overs.... & are likely to continue to bet the overs for a while....

the bookies have adjusted with lines of 6 & 6.5 & in many cases shading the over offering PLUS vig on the under.... bettors are still taking the over & are losing when their teams score 5 or 6 goals.


Not me :party:

I hit the the Under 33 lastnight

I looked at the 5 games and said NO WAY are these games going over 33

GL
Coop
 
SportSavant

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WEDNESDAY RECAP: 2 overs 2 unders 1 push

YTD RECAP: 23 OVERS 32 UNDERS 3 PUSHES

SALAMI RECAP: 2 Overs 4 Unders 2 Pushes
 

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