Overrated or underrated?

[CharlieMaxwell]

With many offshore sports books still taking future book action on the pennant races, we asked our expert to identify some National League teams that, in his estimation, were overrated or underrated.

Read the rest of Arne Lang's latest column by going to the RX home page at www.therx.com

Charlie

 

[wilheim]

The Dodgers at 14-1 imo are worth a shot if you can find that number. They have to get by the Padres who are going to come down to Earth at home sonner or later.



wil.

 

[Horseshoe]

But not tonight Wil..not tonight..Pads go 21-6 in May.

Peavy and Eaton 1-2 fronting the Pad bats, with Hoffman in late make for a real threat, plus the Mets need slight consideration despite imperfections should one of the two East frontrunners ever lose an ace to injury?

 

[WildBill]

Padres are for real. They might bounce down a bit but I see no reason to think they won't cruise easily to win the division. They have a very solid lineup with guys like Greene and Blum stepping up very nicely. Those spots were potential black holes but as long as they get some production and decent defense from those two guys I don't see them getting caught. Dodgers are a step behind in the starting pitching to them this year and the pen is still looking a bit shaky, especially compared to last year. The real question mark is the Giants. Will Barry come back and if he does, will that spark them? They aren't playing that badly for being such an old team with a gaping hole in the lineup.

 

[ChuckSims]

I concur about the Padres. Last year they had trouble winning at home and still won 87 games. This year they are the best home team in the majors. The Giants could be out of it by the time Roid head takes the field.

 

[Fezzik]

Thank goodness for Wild Bill in this thread.

Seriously, we have Arne saying the D'backs are playable at 20-1. Wilheim likes the Dodgers at 14-1. Can I get the Giants at 10-1??

Seriously, I'd personally UNLOAD on the Dodgers NOT to win at -2500. Ditto for the snakes.

As Bill mentioned, the Padres are the likely class of the division. I'd lay -1500 against even the Padres though.

An optimistic estimate of the Dodgers' playoffs chances would at best be 50%. GIVEN they make the playoffs, they are obviously going to be a dog in their 3 series. Even if they were "pk-m", 3 straight times (which only a guy that had been on Mars since 2001 would use as a good line) that STILL gives them only a 1/16 chance to win.

Seriously, what the Heck is going on here???? Even if the Dodgers make the playoffs (a huge stretch), I STILL think $1 parlayed on three moneylines is going to get us to $15. Ditto for the Snakes.

It is threads like this that show why Vegas (and offshores) can get away with putting up sucker-city lines, and milk/bilk the bettors. Here we have not 1, but 2 solid posters touting bets that quite frankly would get the average bettor on a sharp betting team not just reprimanded, but screamed at if he threw a total piece of crap -50% ROI bet like those into a betting pot shared by sharps.

If someone showed me a Dodgers 15-1 ticket I'd ask "can you please tell me what bet you possibly could have rejected to play that total piece of crap??

Did you get me some Det -1 vs. pack week 1? How about some JAX/Sea under 41.5 week 1? Nope, I get the 35-1 true odds Dodgers at 15-1.

Remote goes into wall at high speed...................


:monsters-

 

[Chris@OlympicSports]

D Backs have 2 of the best players in AAA


Conor Jackson + Carlos Quentin

Both should be Sept Call Ups


if D Backs can sign Drew and get Upton in draft, they will be set in OF for years to come

 

[dsong]

Are these Pennant odds?

According to my numbers, I'm getting something like 25-1 on the Dodgers, and around 30-1 on the Diamondbacks. To win the PENNANT. The Giants? About 100-1.

As for the Padres, I'd be a bit more hesistant to short them. My computer is cranking out 14-1 as "fair odds" for them to win the World Series, and 6-1 to win the Pennant.

 

[wilheim]

I assumed the odds were to win NL West. Sorry.




wil.