Overall Away/Home Teams Runs

bystander · Aug 27, 2009

I been playing these bets for a while.........but now since we all have a pretty good idea, which team are still in the race, it is a good time to take advantage and bet this prop, i post some of these bets in my thread......but I just want to create this thread and get some opinion from all the experts here!

The way I will bet these is when there are 3 or more home teams still in the race than away teams......Doesnt matter the juice! Even the juice is more than 200, sometimes it is safer to bet this than taking one team ML at -200....

Aug. 26, 2009

Home Team still in race = 12 (including Brewers & Mariners)
Away Team still in race = 7 (including Astros)
Home Runs = 58 runs
Away Runs = 58 runs
Result = PUSH

bystander · Aug 27, 2009

I am also going to track the overall run total here........

bystander · Aug 27, 2009

how it qualify as a play?

Away/Home Team Run Total.....(I rarely bet away)

Betting on Home Teams...
#1 There have to be 3 more home teams in the playoff race than away
#2 There have to be more home favorites than away

In order to qualify still in the race, the team's GB cant be more than 50% of the remaining games...

I will also try to give a rating for all playoff race teams...
If they have a 3 or more game winning streak +1 pt
If they have a 5 or more game winning streak +3 pts
And for every 1 game winning streak over 5 game +1 more pt

Then.....
If the avg. of the team runs is 0-3 +0 pt
If the avg. of the team runs is 4-5 +1 pt
If the avg. of the team runs is 6-8 +3 pts
If the avg. of the team runs is 8+ +5 pts

Overall Run Totals

If you add all the totals together from all the teams, and the total is 5 or more runs under the "total", then "Under" should be the play...

Also need to look at the difference between the opening line & closing line, if the delta is +1, and the team total is -5, which result in a -5 + 1 = -4, it is a NO play!

For the "Over" play, it is the samething, but I use 3 instead of 5, if you add all the game total together is no more than 3 less than the team total, then "Over" should be the play (when you add the totals together, it will never be more than the total line offered).

Also need to look at the difference between the opening line & closing line, if the delta is +1, that is great, -3 + 1 = -2, the play looks right, if the delta is -1, then -3 - 1 = -4, it result in a no play.

Take yesterday 8/26 as an example...

Overall team total = 134.5 Runs
Overall team total line = 140 Runs
Delta Plus = 2
Delta Minus = 2
Difference = 5.5
Play = Under
Result = 116 total runs scored (WINNER)

bystander · Aug 27, 2009

those overall run total figure I suggested under = 5, over = 3, are for 14-15 games, if there are 10 or less game, I suggest not to play it, or adjust accordingly!

bystander · Aug 27, 2009

Aug. 27, 2009 (First Day)

Record 0-0

Away/Home Team Total Runs

Away Playoff Contenders
Astros (0 pt, 10.5 GB Wild, 36 Games Left)
Dodgers (0 pt, Leading Division 3 Games, 35 Games Left)
Phillies (1 pt, Leading Division 7 Games, 38 Games Left)
Rangers (1 pt, 3 GB Wild, 37 Games Left)
White Sox (1 pt, 4.5 GB Division, 35 Games Left)

Home Playoff Contenders
Marlins (1 pt, 4 GB Wild, 36 Games Left)
Brewers (1 pt, 10.5 GB Wild, 36 Games Left)
Cards (1 pt, Leading Division 9 Games, 34 Games Left)
Cubs (3 pts, 7.5 GB Wild, 38 Games Left)
Rockies (1 pt, Leading Wild 3 Games, 35 Games Left)
Brave (1 pt, 5.5 GB Wild, 36 Games Left)
Yanks (5 pts, Leading Division 6 Games, 36 Games Left)
Giants (1 pt, 3 GB Wild, 35 Games Left)
Red Sox (3 pts, Leading wild 2.5 Games, 36 Games Left)
Angels (1 pt, Leading division 5 Games, 37 Games Left)

Total Away Contender
5 Teams
3 pts total

Total Home Contender
10 Teams
18 pts total

Line (home team -320)
Play = Home Team

Record 0-0

Overall Runs Total
Betting Line = 121.5
Total teams line = 117
Delta Plus = 1
Delta Minus = 2
Difference 121.5 -117 +1 -2 = 5.5
Play = Under

bystander · Aug 28, 2009

Aug. 28, 2009 (Day 2)

Away/Home Team Total Runs 0-1, -$320

when home contender teams is 1-3 more ( 0 win 0 loss )
when home contender teams is 4-6 more ( 0 win 1 loss )
when home contender teams is 7+ more ( 0 win 0 loss )

when juice is Even to -150 ( 0 win 0 loss )
when juice is -151 to -200 ( 0 win 0 loss )
when juice is -201 to -300 ( 0 win 0 loss )
when juice is -301 plus ( 0 win 1 loss )

Overall Runs Total 1-0, +$100

Over play = 0 win 0 loss
Under play = 1 win 0 loss

when line / # of teams = 9 - 9.3 runs ( 0 win 0 loss )
when line / # of teams = 9.31 - 9.6 runs ( 1 win 0 loss )
when line / # of teams = 9.61 + ( 0 win 0 loss )

Away/Home Team Total Runs

Total Away Contender
7 Teams

Total Home Contender
11 Teams

Line (home team -210)
Play = Home Team

Overall Runs Total

Betting Line = 140
Total teams line = 133.5
Delta Plus = 0
Delta Minus = 1
Difference 140 -133.5 +0 -1 = 7.5
Play = Under (BIG)

There is a chance yankees game will rain out and both play will be void!!!