Over and under plays on Team totals wins....

[Addicted2quack]

Just browsed bovada's team win totals and saw a few I really liked. I haven't placed any bets yet because I'm still building my bank roll, but this is what I like so far. My selections are based on a couple things, returning starters, schedule, and my own opinions lol. Feel free to throw your input in on this thread, just please keep it friendly and informative.

*these totals are based upon regular season wins only, no conference championship games or bowl games are included in the totals.

NIU - 8.5 (Over. This is a quality 9-10 win team every year in a poor conference)
Penn state - 8 (over, I hate them and think hackenberg is atrocious, but they should be good this year)
Texas - 6 ( over, I believe Texas wins at least 7 games, but I'm predicting 8)
utah - 7.5 ( over, a very dangerous dark horse in the pac 12)
arkansas state - 7 (over, red wolves might win 10 regular season games)
cal - 5.5 (Over, cal returns a lot and has 3-4 what should be easy wins)

Notre dame - 9 (Under, they have a very rough schedule, I think they lose some surprising games this year )
texas a&am - 8 (under, this team plays very little defense, and I think they are in for a rude awakening this season)
UCLA -9 (Under, lots of returning starters, but no proven QB. Very tough schedule in the south as well, I'll pass )
Wisconsin- 9.5 ( under, I think they land right at 9 wins, but I'm not sure about this team overall )

 

[REDEYE]

Michigan under 7 1/2 best play..
Ducks ov 9 /2

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Again I notice that everyone forgets to state the vig. It can be very bad. If Penn State and UCLA fail to cover the number, it is THREE losses, not two, because you are looking at -150 per wager. It is kind of comical how posters always forget to post the vig in here, which drops a large number of bettors out of the win column and into the loss column overall.

As far as the wagers are concerned, NIU looks good. They lose at Ohio State, and possibly at Toledo, but there is no other glaring loss on the schedule. Now whether their are worth -140 or not is another question.

Penn State is another wager that looks rather solid. Who are they going to lose to? Army? Again the -150 vig makes this wager questionable as far as value is concerned.

UCLA Under 9. Really? Who beats them? If they get past BYU at home, they will run the non-con schedule. They are not going to go 5-4 in conference. You are also looking at -150. UCLA loses their QB but returns everyone else. No thanks.

Wisconsin Under 9 1/2. Again I ask, who beats them. Alabama certainly has a great chance. Games at Nebraska and Minnesota could be interesting, but no one else should have a chance. At Even, it is not the worst play on the board.

The rest are passes for me.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Something that you may want to do. Check the vig on your teams with several off shore books. Remember, off shore books are a lot more desperate to make a buck than 'Vegas books, so you may see some huge variations in vig for the same wager. Here is an example or two:

Air Force Over 6 wins. Bovada -120. 5dimes -160.
Ga. Tech Over 7 1/2. wins. Bovada -200. 5dimes -170.
Hawaii Over 6 wins. Bovada +150. 5dimes +190.
LSU Under 7 1/2 wins. Bovada -150. 5dimes -180.

If you hope to have any success at all playing with off shore books (and few do) you have to spread your money around and get the best possible vig. As you can see, there are some pretty big differences between books.

 

[rolltide]

quack, I wouldn't touch aTm under simply because of how comfortable their schedule is. They are DD favs in 4 games (USCe, WC, NEV, BSU) and favored against Arizona St, Vandy, Miss St. Their biggest dog spread right now is just 7.5, at LSU, and very small dog vs both ARK and barn, 6 points dogs vs Ole miss and bama. Basically if they win the 7 games they are favored they just need to upset 1 team to push that bet. Also helps they play 9x at home or neutral in Texas with only 3 true away games, one which is Vandy.


agree they lack the overall talent and depth on defense but having the best DC in college football will improve them

 

[REDEYE]

Michigan is -110 .. Oregon ov 125..... can't believe how foolish some look in here complaining about the vig when they are posting bogus win totals on there own..LOL Anybody here know where I can get Bama ov 8 1/2 ? as far as the vig is concerned , win total juice very rarely stays at -110 or 115... Just like anything else, get in when you feel you have a good #... I have bet juice at -145 on college win totals that went past 300... Was that foolish ? No because it was USC under 10 1/2 2 years ago...Only our resident fool would look at that as a foolish play ....

 

[loomis41973]

PEnn St and ND overs. Easy peasy

 

[DesertDevil]

and favored against Arizona St

ASU is going to roll them.

Sumlin talking shit the past week ain't gonna help their cause.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

I rarely play these but one that I did is Boise State o10 +110

Looking at their schedule on paper only 2 of those games are really tough (BYU & Utah State) & even if they were to by some fluke lose those two, they would push at 10 wins. They are favored in all 12 games & by double digits in many of them. They imo will be one of the unbeaten teams remaining at the end of the season.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Boise State is 8-0 both S/U and ATS in the past 10 seasons against Utah State, and that includes the Gary Anderson era at Utah State. If you got Boise Over 10 +110 you have a good wager. At least you did not chicken out and fade Boise State, like some total chicken s**t in here faded Oregon against USC because he is afraid to being wrong. His days are numbered and the number continues to shrink.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

quack, I wouldn't touch aTm under simply because of how comfortable their schedule is. They are DD favs in 4 games (USCe, WC, NEV, BSU) and favored against Arizona St, Vandy, Miss St. Their biggest dog spread right now is just 7.5, at LSU, and very small dog vs both ARK and barn, 6 points dogs vs Ole miss and bama. Basically if they win the 7 games they are favored they just need to upset 1 team to push that bet. Also helps they play 9x at home or neutral in Texas with only 3 true away games, one which is Vandy.


agree they lack the overall talent and depth on defense but having the best DC in college football will improve them

I happen th think that A&M is going to improve this season, or be looking for a new HC in 2016. However, in which dream world of yours is John Chavis the best DC in College Football? Not even close. You SEC homers just do not know when to shut up, do you?

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Boise State is 8-0 both S/U and ATS in the past 10 seasons against Utah State, and that includes the Gary Anderson era at Utah State. If you got Boise Over 10 +110 you have a good wager. At least you did not chicken out and fade Boise State, like some total chicken s**t in here faded Oregon against USC because he is afraid to being wrong. His days are numbered and the number continues to shrink.

+110 still available at 5 Dimes. I think it is a gem people are overlooking.

 

[flashmo]

ASU is going to roll them.

Sumlin talking shit the past week ain't gonna help their cause.

LOL.I like your style...GO DEVILS!!

 

[DropDimes]

I'll play…. Not saying I agree or disagree with his plays, but quit acting like UCLA and Wisconsin are fantastic teams.

Wisconsin would have to lose three games to be under - Alabama, Iowa, @Nebraska, @Minnesota. All three of those conference games are very winnable for Wisconsin, but they could also reasonably go 1-2. The fact that three of their four toughest games are all away from Camp Randall is pause for concern.

UCLA would have to lose four games to be under - BYU, @Arizona, ASU, @Stanford, @Utah, @USC. All six of those games could easily go either way, with the first four coming back to back (though they do get essentially BYE before Stanford). Again, four of their six toughest games are on the road, certainly not ideal.

 

[Addicted2quack]

When I make selections I include the vig, but when I'm simply looking at games I don't really care much to post the vig. As I get closer to making plays and selections I start to pay attention to things like that.

With that being said, I think a lot of people have provided some great input. I'm hesitant with Boise state, they are a very quality team and I don't see them losing 2 games but who knows. I'll have to double back on that selection and take a peak at it. I feel very uncertain about UCLA and their chances in the south. With USC, Arizona and Arizona state being heavy favorites, everyone is throwing out Utah on the back step. I fully believe they could have a great year. They always have a gritty defense and their offense "appears" to get better every year.... I don't know the stats on their offensive production, nor do I care to look them up, just stating that by the eye test. Before their starting QB blew out his knee against Oregon, they were on fire as a team. He is a very dependable QB and they have a solid rushing attack to go with it. People overlook Utah all the time, but I won't be surprised one bit if they take down 1 or 2 of the so called "favorites" in the pac 12 south this year. So coming back to my point, if Utah Arizona state, Stanford and USC have good years, I don't see UCLA winning 9 games. Just my perspective