ov/un whats your pick

[da_bean]

New England is +16 and philly is +8 on the turnovers. They are running teams who use playaction on the pass. I just dont see this going over 47.5 points.

Before i lay any more greanbacks on the under,, i would love to know what some of you cappers are predicting..


Da_bean

 

[JimFiestSux]

People I know including myself have been betting the under everyday since last week. Going to Vegas tomorrow and will be sending in more of the same. UNDER is the smart play in this game no matter what past super bowls scores indicate like some are saying here.

 

[bookie]

Under, and here is why.

-2 good defenses
-2 conservative coaches
-teams combined for 14-22-2 O/U (including playoffs)
-Under is 6-0 when PHI plays 2 weeks+ of rest
-Under is 9-2 after PHI wins 2+ games
-Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings

These 2 teams have arguably the best secondary in the league so I cant see them getting burned with long, quick passes. They also dont make mistakes...New England is +16 and Philly is +8 on the turnovers.

Look for long 7-8 minute drives to be the norm here.
This number is set way too high for these defenses. They ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league in points allowed and Philly was the stingiest in allowing touchdowns in the red zone (40.1 percent).

So why the high number?
-Past SB high scores
-McNabb & Brady (in the top 3, NFL QB)
-The SB is a game all the squares come out and we know what they bet..FAV&OVER

This is my best bet for the Super Bowl.
Under 47.5

 

[JimFiestSux]

Up to 48 now, played more on the UNDER at MVP.

 

[da_bean]

im holding on for sunday before i lay any more wagers.. do you guys see this ov/un rising or falling? im hoping 48.5 or 49

 

[da_bean]

THe ov/un went up on bodog (48)and down on pinnacle(47)... im not sure which way this thing is heading right now..

 

[bulldog77]

Bodog is inflating their line against the favorite and over bettor. That is one of their lines. The one you get if they have you profiled as anything more than a fav and over bettor is 47.5 or less guaranteed. Pinny probably reflects the real trend I would think.

Personally, I like over the 47.5. Good weather and SB. Teams just seem to open it up more in SB plus with the tighter enforcement of all the rules Ham-stringing the Defenses.... taking over.

 

[TotalRecall]

I like the over 47.5. This is Chalrie Weis's last game as NE OC. Hell be looking to put up as many points as possible. In the 1st half he ll try for 21 pts mostly passing. In the second half let Dillion score on 2 long rushing drives. Vinny gets a couple of FG's, Bruschi or Harrison take one back to the house. Philly gets two TD's and a FG for 17 and the game goes way over. Even with Mcnabb being blitzed all night long he should still be able to throw a bomb or two to Mitchell or Owens for scores.

 

[da_bean]

THose are great capping strategies but i believe the most important thing for these off/def coaches is to win the game. THey will play within their game and do what they've been doing all year. Brady will get 180 yards 20comp and dillan will get over a 100 yards. Reid will revert back to his conservative ways because thats what he is... thats alway been his instinct and in the biggest game of his life nerves will be going crazy he will get conservative...

 

[bsquared11]

I like Under 48 for the game, but I really like Under 24 for the first half.