Oregon Vs. Illinois (Huge Write Up) 12/11

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Alright this is where my small advantage over the majority of posters comes into affect. I really need to emphasize that i thought long and hard about this play. im an avid oregon fan, student, etc etc. so its hard not to let a personal bias come into play.

here's the deal. tomorrow two undefeated teams face off. that in itself makes this a big game. and whoever shows up tomorrow will win.

it is in my honest opinion that oregon can cover the spread tomorrow, and i dont hesitate one bit to say that they have a chance at the upset. the ducks shoot LIGHTS out from 3 POINT RANGE. hitting an insane 32/75 from the land of plenty or 43%.

i know there schedule has not been anything to brag about in comparison to illinois, but the bench play, the guard play, and the poise they have shown this far this year - to me - makes them one of the biggest sleepers in the country. the team as a whole is shooting 51% on the year, and has only let teams come back from turnovers.

opening line is at +16.5 at my book. I would expect that line to drop to somewhere in the 14 or 13 range before gametime. This is a game that oregon has had ONE FULL WEEK to prepare for. finals for the players ended on wednesday and thursday morning, so coach Kent (i read) flew the team up a full day ahead of schedule to relax and focus.

illinois on the other hand has had less than 1 practice to prepare. this is their 4TH GAME OF THE WEEK!!!!! thats right, ILLINI will have played 4 GAMES THIS WEEK.

so final say is, i will be hammering the +16.5 for OREGON and putting a small bet on the moneyline when it opens.

by no means is this a lock. this is my opinion from a strong northwest sports fan - whose attended all home duck games this season.

ill end with this, if the ducks shoot the three ball (like they have all year (bryce taylor, ian crosswhite, aaron brooks), dont turn the ball over, and rebound - they cover this easily.)

i wish everyone luck as ill be locked into the game with about 30 others!!

go ducks!:party: :party:
 

gerhart got hosed
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Im a huge Illinois fan and agree with your post somewhat. 16.5 seems like too many. But at the same time, Illinois is so good. The only play in this one is oregon + the points. But Illinois could beat anybody by 30 at any time. Any great team like ILL. is 50/50 to cover large spreads, even if they seem way too high. But eventually they will be in for a game. IMO this no play. GL on your bet, but not the money line. ILL 84, ORE 70
 

gerhart got hosed
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also one major thing to consider is illinois' defense. they have great defenders on the perimeter, a lot of quickness. They play solid team defense and they don't let up. They will go for the throat early in this one. Thats why IMO the line seems high. just a thought. i will have no money riding on this, just giving my 2 cents.
 

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Love Oregon in this spot. Illinois did not practice before this game either. Played Gtown the other night and did some site seeing the next day. Took the day off and traveled back to Shi tcago. Gotta love the points in this spot. Illinois will probably win so I'd just tak the points. This will be pretty much a home game for them as the United Center will be full of Illini fans as it is a 2nd home court for them. Good luck on your play. Will watch with Illini fans and be cheering against them but I do see an Illini cover. Illini depend on outside shot just as much as Oregon. It will be interesting. Take the points however as I see a 10 pt win for Illini. Lines are inflated on Illini right now too. OVerrated.
 

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Deron WIlliams most overrated player right now in college hoops.
 

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it's going to be a great game - this could be one of the greatest team in oregons history. thats the talk we have had around town. this is the single most talented offensive and defensive TEAM we have had in years. ignore ridnour, jackson, etc -- this is a TEAM.

ill never shy away from illinois being an amazing team, especially this year. but i know oregons tempo, i know their play, and they are not afraid. last year we had to have jackson on fire to win tough games - he was their scoring. (See NIT loss to Michigan)...

i definately can't argue the history though - i believe oregon is 2-17 versus #1 opponents with their 2 lone wins coming against UCLA twice in conference matchups. ill post some more numbers in the morning or tonight, i have a copy of the pregame guide.
 

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additional info:

DUCKS VERSUS No. 1 . . . Oregon is 2-21 all-time versus the
nation’s top-ranked team. The Ducks’ last win against No. 1 came
on Feb. 16, 1974, a 56-51 decision versus UCLA. Oregon’s other
win against No. 1 also came against the Bruins -- 78-65 on Feb. 21,
1970. The Ducks have never faced a top-ranked team from outside
the Pac-10 during the regular season.


Oregon vs. No. 1
Date Opponent W/L Score Location
3/12/60 *California L 70-49 Seattle, Wash.
1/8/65 UCLA L 91-74 Eugene, Ore.
1/8/66 UCLA L 97-65 Los Angeles, Calif.
2/11/67 UCLA L 71-63 Los Angeles, Calif.
2/17/67 UCLA L 100-66 Eugene, Ore.
1/10/69 UCLA L 93-64 Eugene, Ore.
2/22/69 UCLA L 103-69 Los Angeles, Calif.
1/9/70 UCLA L 75-58 Los Angeles, Calif.
2/21/70 UCLA W 78-65 Eugene, Ore.
2/12/71 UCLA L 69-68 Eugene, Ore.
2/20/71 UCLA L 74-67 Los Angeles, Calif.
1/8/72 UCLA L 93-68 Eugene, Ore.
2/25/72 UCLA L 92-70 Los Angeles, Calif.
1/5/73 UCLA L 64-38 Los Angeles, Calif.
2/22/73 UCLA L 72-61 Eugene, Ore.
2/8/74 UCLA L 84-66 Los Angeles, Calif.
2/16/74 UCLA W 56-51 Eugene, Ore.
1/17/81 Oregon State L 82-55 Corvallis, Ore.
1/16/88 Arizona L 70-54 Eugene, Ore.
3/11/95 UCLA L 94-78 Los Angeles, Calif.
1/13/00 Stanford L 100-76 Stanford, Calif.
3/8/03 Arizona L 88-80 Tucson, Ariz.
2/28/04 Stanford L 76-55 Stanford, Calif.
*NCAA West Regional Final

DEFENSIVE DUCKS . . . As mentioned on p. 1, Oregon has held all
four opponents this season below 40 percent from the floor.

PAC-10 LEADERS . . . Though it’s early in the season, Oregon leads
the Pac-10 in scoring margin (plus 15.0 ppg), field goal percentage
(.519) and rebounds allowed (28.8 rpg). See page 7 for more rankings.

Tale of the Tape

UO UI
Pts 80.0 84.7
Pts Allowed 65.0 63.6
Reb 36.8 36.4
Reb. Margin +8.0 +6.7
Asst 17.8 22.3
Steals 6.5 6.6
Blocks 3.3 4.4
TOs 16.0 13.3
FG Pct. .519 .522
FG Pct. Def. .383 .411
3FG Pct. .427 .440
3FG Pct. Def. .283 .370
Ft Pct. .660 .679
3FG per game 8.0 10.4

*Oregon and Illinois have met twice at neutral sites -- the 1977 Far West Classic
and the 1984 Great Alaska Shootout. The Illini won both meetings by slim
margins. Oregon is 12-28 versus current members of the Big Ten Conference,
including a 78-53 loss to Michigan in the 2004 NIT semifinals.
 

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