Opening Line Report

TheShambler · Sep 22, 2009

Opening line report: Books deal with teams in must-win mode

By JOSH NAGEL | September 21, 2009


Tom Brady struggled to complete passes Sunday in the face of constant pressure from the New York Jets. Sportsbooks everywhere felt similar heat from a blitz of Jets bettors who threw down cash from time the line opened until kick-off.
Neither the former NFL MVP nor oddsmakers were too happy with the result.
First-year Jets coach Rex Ryan watched his defense get several key stops, and his offense made enough big plays for New York to hold and beat New England 16-9, ending a streak of eight consecutive home losses to its AFC East rival.
Brady, the three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback who is trying to recover from a career-threatening knee injury, looked out of sync. He missed open receivers on some occasions, they dropped passes on others. For the sportsbooks, the unusual circumstance came from needing the Patriots to cover in order to profit on the game. Square and public bettors alike backed the Jets, who opened as -6 to -6.5-point underdog in most books but closed at -3.
“I was surprised that it moved that far, and there was no stop in that move,” said oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich, race and sports director for the Reno-based Club Cal Neva.

TheShambler · Sep 22, 2009

For oddsmakers and football bettors, the struggles of the Patriots (1-1), who went 27-5 over the past two regulars seasons, and the resurgence of the Jets (2-0), who were thought to be in rebuilding mode with a rookie head coach and quarterback, are among the season’s early surprises.

“Everyone didn’t know what to expect from the Patriots,” Bogdanovich said. “The last time Brady was healthy, they set all the records. Now, they are a different team. The offense is a little slower, guys like Randy Moss and Joey Galloway are getting up there in years, and Brady doesn’t look as confident as he once was. The defense is missing (injured linebacker) Jerod Mayo. They are still a good team, but not the juggernaut they once were.”

Conversely, the Jets have made an impression in winning their first two games by a combined score of 40-16.

The Jets-Patriots game wasn’t the only NFL Week 2 tilt that saw bettors cashing and sportsbooks managers cringing. Bogdanovich said four other games saw significant line movements, and his books lost all four. The Ravens moved from a 4-point underdog to a 1-point dog against the San Diego Chargers and still won the game outright 31-26; the New Orleans Saints went from +1 to -3 against the Donovan McNabb-less Philadelphia Eagles and routed them 48-22; the Oakland Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals each moved the line about 3 points before taking home the cash, Oakland beating the Kansas City Chiefs 13-10 and the Bengals downing the Green Bay Packers 31-24.

“When they bet five games, you don’t expect them to go 5-0,” the oddsmaker said. “You don’t see NFL games moving that much. You think you have a pretty good handle on the NFL odds, and to see this many games move that much is a little surprising.”

TheShambler · Sep 22, 2009

Now, oddsmakers are facing the challenge of setting lines for several Week 3 games that involve teams that already desperate to salvage their seasons with a win going against those that are looking to build on their impressive starts. The Patriots open as 4.5-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, while the Jets are a 2.5-point favorite over the visiting Tennessee Titans.

The Titans and the Carolina Panthers combined to go 25-7 last season, and Tennessee’s 13 wins were the most in the NFL. Now, both are 0-2, and history shows an 0-3 start practically guarantees a seat on the couch come playoff time. In the past 15 years, only two of 78 teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs – the 1995 Detroit Lions and the 1998 Buffalo Bills – and they each lost in the first round.

“I think coach Jeff Fisher has an experienced group and they know what to do,” Bogdanovich said. “They won’t panic, and they’ll grind as hard as they can to win the game. But people tend to bet on what they last saw, so I expect the public to be on the Jets.”

Much-maligned quarterback Jake Delhomme and the Panthers are a 9.5-point underdog when they travel for a Monday Night Football game against the Dallas Cowboys, who also are in need of a win after dropping their home opener Sunday to the New York Giants.

“Delhomme has been a problem, but the Panthers have more issues than just him,” Bogdanovich said of Carolina, whose defensive line is depleted by injuries.

One matchup featuring two undefeated teams pits coach Mike Singletary’s hard-nosed San Francisco 49ers against Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings (-7). The 49ers have garnered some attention after beating the NFC champion Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 1 and dominating the Seattle Seahawks 23-10 in their home opener Sunday. But the fact the Vikings are 2-0 after beating up on the likes of Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions isn’t sending shockwaves through most NFL observers.

“I don’t think Minnesota could have scripted it any better,” Bogdanovich said. “Two soft road games, and Favre gets a chance to get a better grasp of the offense and better chemistry with his teammates. Everything is good for them right now.”

Other Week 3 opening lines include: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (13.5); Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (+6.5); Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-4); Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (off/McNabb injury); Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (+6.5); New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+5.5); Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5); Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5); New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7); Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-2.5); Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7); Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (+1).

TheShambler · Sep 23, 2009

The Jets opened at -3 and then quickly the number dropped to -2.5 coming off the key number of 3 . Now surprisingly it is back to -3.

Denver has changed from a +2.5 to a -1 . although there is more of a line move , the Jets move back to -3 is more of a move IMO.

Cards have swinged from a + 1 to -2.5

Jetplane · Sep 23, 2009

Well the cards and Jets are gonna win >

lindabp1 · Sep 23, 2009

Nice information, good to read. Where did you get it? Thanks

lindabp1 · Sep 23, 2009

Always good to know the point of view from oddsmaker's side. Please keep on posting similar report every week.

dirtymoose · Sep 23, 2009

is this weekend a must win for Carolina?

Zxbets · Sep 23, 2009

I dont think carolina is gonna win, the need to win, but their not doin it...The cowboys must win this game, they are playing again at home, and they need to recover from sunday...Btw nice info by Theshambler...usefull...i agree with the fact the titans or carolina gonna recover form their awful start 0-3. Im leaning forward to jets and dallas, but that`s my point of view.:toast:d1g1t