Open Discussion: Tournament Handicapping - How Will You Approach It?

[oldmanTED]

With college basketball Conference Tournaments just getting underway and shortly to be in full swing followed by both the NIT and the NCAA Tournaments, thought it might be of value to the forum to open up a discussion on tournament handicapping. What things might you look for that would be different from your approach during the regular season pre-conference and conference play? What will be the key elements that you consider important? Or, is your approach the same? Do you feel the approach should be the same? Feel free to comment and/or ask questions as you see fit. This thread is intended to assist you as March Madness heats up. The more you share your thoughts and information, the better chance we will all have this year to have a successful and profitable tournament season. With that being said, let your thoughts begin.

 

[Glaken]

I like to look for favorites that are relatively young with an inflated number and fade them. I have noticed that in the early rounds teams seem to be a little nervous, especially the young ones.

 

[Rainbow]

I like to focus completely on unders. I think they play alot better defense. and everybodys knows guess who will play all unders. he bets under on practically every total he plays, expecially in the tournaments.

 

[FairWarning]

I like unders in domes. I like power conference low seeds 9-12 in the second round because they do have some depth, have faced that kind of competition all year, and won't be intiminated. Also like low seeds from mid-majors playing in their home state (So Ill a couple years back). Also fade teams who have a lot of hype but haven't been there for a long time if they are the favs. (this year could be LSU).

 

[TheGeneral+]

Games seem to move faster in tourneys so to meet time requirements and not get to far behind. Makes for good unders maybe.

 

[Labeeb]

Being a CBB totals player myself, I've took a quick and dirty look at about 8 years worth of data to see if there's any major differences between regular season and tournament scoring(NIT/NCAA, no conference tourneys), and it seems as though there's only a small drop, about 1 1/2 points across the board. Perhaps different in conference tournament games. I'll have to take a look tomorrow if I get the chance.

 

[Nomad1951]

Like to see how teams have done ATS vs. teams similar to those in the tourney, those with .600 or better winning percentages...

also will look at assist to t.o. ratio (guard play really important to me in tourney)...rebounding margin and free throw percentage. Used to look at how teams did in last 10 games, but i seem to remember this really wasn't much or a predictor recently...

and this year, I'm gonna go get a hat to draw names out of! Without even seeing the teams selected, I think this might might be the most evenly balanced, difficult to handicap NCAA tourney I've seen in some time. Really would not surprise me to see a 4 or 5 seed win the whole thing...

 

[PokerKingJim]

For conf tourneys - First thing I do is throw out how a team does at home vs how they do on the road and look almost solely at FG% differential - 3 pointers made/% - rebounding margin - turnover margin - and factor in how a team played down the stretch. Conf tourneys have always been a big money maker for me - the variable of the neutral court can give the sharp bettor the edge over the linesmaker/public. :toast:

 

[Jarbo]

I look for who OldMan Ted is betting on!



:toast:

 

[THE SHRINK]

GREAT TOPIC OMT...

Just a few tidbits that immediately come to my mind...

In general, one thing I look for when comparing teams in tournaments is the GUARDS, and in particular, each team's point guards...

They are the engine for most teams both offensively and defensively. I look at turnovers, their outside shooting %'s (the higher they are the more likely the BIGGER MEN won't be double teamed, etc...)

I also give much more emphasis on how teams finished the year (duh?), and whether or not they have FRESHMAN who have improved considerably from the start of the season...

THE SHRINK

 

[Ego74]

Here's just a few:

1- Point guard play is huge. Also important are teams that can execute their half court offense.
2- Defense..esp teams that play good team D (trapping, helping, perimeter D). Look at FG % D (and offense) variances home/away.
3- Teams with Senior leadership (3 or more starters who've "done it" before), also look for teams that have the conditioning to win 2 games in 3 days. Tournament tested coaches also.
4- Teams that are playing their best basketball RIGHT NOW
5- Free throw shooting advantage. In games with low pointspreads especially, teams that not only hit their free throws, but get there more. Also, teams that get to the FT line will be more likely to get key players on the other team in foul trouble.
6- Big game players. Does the star of the team kick it up a notch, or disappear in big games??

 

[Illini]

Without even seeing the teams selected, I think this might might be the most evenly balanced, difficult to handicap NCAA tourney I've seen in some time. Really would not surprise me to see a 4 or 5 seed win the whole thing...

I think you forgot about a team that still has not been beaten. :toast:

 

[Nomad1951]

I think you forgot about a team that still has not been beaten. :toast:

Obviously, wish you the best, Illini...but watch out for them Buckeyes this weekend!:drink:

 

[PokerKingJim]

What is the guestimate on what the Ill-OSU line will be? I am an OSU fan and if this line is unbalanced in favor of OSU, I'll be all over the Illini. The Bucks have a decent team but they obviously are not in the same class as Illinois. Dials inside is their main offensive weapon but he is in constant foul trouble. Illini have a number of bigs they can throw at him. The other 4 positions on the floor are all total mismatches. Stockman trying to cover any of the big 3 will be ugly. Yea this is OSU's national title game, but Illinois will be aware of that and they know what is at stake. Illini wins by 10.

I say the line opens up at Illini -6.5 and gets bet down to 5 or so and then bet back up to 6 by sharps as the public takes a beating. All we have heard about for several weeks now is that the Illini will be in for a battle at OSU. it has been engrained into the public's mind. OSU is a decent team but they will be overvalued and outclassed in this matchup. People still seem to think Illinois is overachieving.

 

[Illini]

I told a friend last night that I would set the line at -7. I don't think it's a steal, but there's value on that line with the Illini, and there will be plenty of money on Ohio St at that line. That's my take.

 

[PokerKingJim]

Agree completely

 

[Illini]

I still can't figure out what happened there last year. I was on the Illini, at -8, I believe. They dominated for 30 minutes and led by 19 or so. Almost lost the game, and escaped with a one or two point win, when Ohio St missed a shot at the buzzer. Could have called a foul on it, too.

 

[Kornholio]

I will be looking to bet a lot of dogs and dog M/L. I feel the tourney is the easiest time of year to make money on hoops.