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EDMONTON –1.05 over Carolina<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
The series shifts to Western Canada and the Oilers can get back into the series with a win tonight. They were down 2-0 to San Jose before coming home and momentum changed than and there’s an excellent chance it’ll change again here. The Canes 5-0 win in the last game combined with the loss of Roloson has heavy influence on this number, as does public perception that the Oilers are done. Think again, Edmonton is not done and it says here that they win the next two games, tie the series up and head back to Carolina with a whole different mindset. The Hurricanes are up by two games but they haven’t even been close to dominating this series as much as the media and others would lead you to believe. The Canes have gotten the breaks, especially in game one and no way do the Oilers go away easy. Edmonton has proven to be about the toughest venue for the opposition this playoff year and that’s not going to change tonight. Yeah, Edmonton is down 2-0 but in terms of play they’ve skated with and outplayed the Canes for long stretches in this series and while we never use the words. “love this game” or “lock”, we are calling this match one of our strongest plays of the year. Play: Edmonton –1.05 (Risking 3.15 units to win 3).
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Edmonton +5.40 over Carolina (adjusted series price after game two)<o:p></o:p>
This is just a great hedge opportunity because if Edmonton ties the series up, which we believe they will, this line will drop dramatically and we can than come back on the Hurricanes laying about –1.50. Again, Edmonton has to win the next two and this bet is only about that. In other words we’re going to get about 4-1 odds on Edmonton winning the next two home games and should that come to pass, we’ll play Carolina to win the series at the new adjusted series price, which will be about -1.50. Series Bet. Play: Edmonton +5.40 (Risking 2 units to win 10.80 units).
 

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Hell yea, good opinion. This series isn't going to be a sweep or a 4-1 win for Carolina. I wouldn't be suprised to see Edmonton take both at home (if they make the right adjustments). I'd take Edmonton -1 too.
 

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Didn't realize the game was tomorrow, no big deal but thanks nonetheless.
I was wondering why Pinny wasn't taking parlays on the game yet.

I now have my answer.

Anyway, the sentiments remain the same.
Good luck
 

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I don't like +540 Edm series. Line for game 3 is -107, game 4 line is unknown, you presume +130 or so Edm for series if they win next 2 games.

If you played individual games 3 and 4 then Edm series and rebet winnings:

-107, -107, +130 would pay +760

you'd need Edm to be -215 in game 4 to only get +552 return.

Edm could split games 3 and 4 and you'd still have a prayer left on the series play, but winning 3 straight down 3-1 with 2 of the games in Carolina seems virtually impossible. I can't see them winning without taking both games 3 and 4. I think Carolina would also be bigger chalk than -150 if tied.
 

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Brian: I don't see how you figure you get 4-1 odds on Edm winning the next 2 games.

I figure it like this:

You'll get +130 on Edm for series if they win the next 2 games, you are getting +540 for series.

+180 and +130 equals +544

I'd say you are getting about +180 on the 2 games, and would do better betting each seperately and bet the proceeds of game 3 on game 4.
 

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Doug:
You're usually correct when it comes to mathematics but in this case you are incorrect.

The wager is Edmonton 2 units to win 10.8.
If they do win games three and four you than wager on Carolina to win series at say -1.50.

That wager would be three units to win 2.

Now if Carolina wins series you break even and if the Oilers win series you profit 7.8 units thus making them a 3.9-1 dog to win games three and four.

Good luck Doug.
 

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Sherwood I read your posts all the time and respect your opinon much...

But Edmonton is not coming back to win this series with who or what they have in net...Losing Rolo is to big of a loss to overcome for them...

I see no value in a series bet that has almost 0% chance of happening..

I believe you would be better off betting individual games..
 

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sherwood said:
Doug:
You're usually correct when it comes to mathematics but in this case you are incorrect.

The wager is Edmonton 2 units to win 10.8.
If they do win games three and four you than wager on Carolina to win series at say -1.50.

That wager would be three units to win 2.

Now if Carolina wins series you break even and if the Oilers win series you profit 7.8 units thus making them a 3.9-1 dog to win games three and four.

Good luck Doug.

Brian: You are right this would produce +390 IF you get Car -150, it would be like getting Edm +155 in game 4 after they win game 3 at -107.

I think the -150 is way too low on Car if EDM ties it up. The line there is going to have to be more like -240, causing you to risk 4.8 units instead of 3 units to win 2 units, and reducing the +390 to a more realistic 3-1.

Game 3 is basically a pick, and if EDM wins it, they should be favored in G4.

Savant is pretty good calling the lines. I'd like to see what he thinks series price will be should EDM tie it up 2-2.

Of course I know you want Carolina to win it all to collect that future from December at odds up to 60-1.

Something is wrong here, and it has to be the Carolina -150 assumption.
 

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True, but the line assuming it is tied 2-2, will largely be based on the play of games three and four. If Edmonton dominates the line will be -1.50 at the most. A lot can happen and an injury can effect the line also.

We'll see, I hope Edmonton loses both games because of the future that you mentioned but I just see some tremendous value on the Oilers and it gives me a pretty good oportunity to hedge.
 

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Sherwood while you are around, a couple questions. I have Carolina +178 to win it all to win 3,560. I really don't think Carolina loses the series but I may bet Oilers just tommorow in this do or die game. Hedge? I guess but want it all. I do think if they are going to win a game this is the one.

But I really like over as Edmonton is at home and with the refs etc should score and I believe Carolina will too. What do you think Over 6 +101.

I appreciate your opinion although I am betting over anyway but how much is still in question. Thx
 

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Dubpoet said:
But I really like over as Edmonton is at home and with the refs etc should score and I believe Carolina will too. What do you think Over 6 +101.
Ben Burns has it as his Bonus Play of the day, if you're interested in knowing.
 

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randolph said:
Well great Kirk, but who is it? Geeeez! :icon_conf

He has the Over.

"Reason: The two games at Carolina (5-4 and 5-0) produced an average of seven goals per game. Now the series shifts to the 'fast ice' of Edmonton. The last two games (5-4 and 6-3) that the Oilers played here, in their series vs. Anaheim, both produced nine goals. Looking back a bit further and we find that seven of the last nine games played here have produced a minimum of six goals with five of those games finishing 'over' the six-goal mark. The Oilers saw the Over go 12-8 this season after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, we find the Over at a healthy 14-6 when the 'Canes are playing with two day's rest in between games. Lets look for a relatively high-scoring affair and TAKE OVER 6"

http://www.benburnsconsulting.com/freepicks.asp
 

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Again, anyone who believes Edmonton is out of this series is a fool.
No offence, but this series is far from over. Trust me on this one.
 

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Ben Burns is an idiot and in the future please don't promote his picks in my thread, it's an insult.

He's also a con artist making him a con artist and an idiot.
 

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Dub Poet:
I can't stand totals, especially in hockey and thus, have no opinion.
 

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Sherwood, great analysis as always...

I don't think the series is over but Oilers will not win the cup, they amy make it interesting but with that goaltending they will not win the series being down
0-2...

They will split games 3 and 4... Totals in playoff hockey are easy plays in certain situations you should look into them...

GL with your plays....:103631605
 

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sherwood said:
Ben Burns is an idiot and in the future please don't promote his picks in my thread, it's an insult.

He's also a con artist making him a con artist and an idiot.

Okidoke.

Out of curiosity, why is he a con artist? I'm really not familiar with all the touts out there, so I wouldn't know.
 

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