one tonight w/analysis

[sherwood]

<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="500"><tbody><tr><td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">0.00 Units</td> </tr><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">26</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">32</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+2.24 Units</td> </tr><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Season To Date (Since October 2008)</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">32</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">40</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+2.14 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games include OT unless stated otherwise

BOSTON +1.08 over Montreal <o></o>
I really don’t give a rat’s ass about the Habs domination over the Bruins over the past few years, as that information is about as useless as applying perfume to a pig. The most misused and ridiculous handicapping tool is results that go back years and years. So what if Montreal is 8-2 over the Bruins in Boston dating back to 2003. How the f**k does that have an impact on the outcome of this game!!!? It doesn’t, that’s how and regardless of the outcome of this one, Montreal should not be favored. Boston has definitely joined the elite, as this team just might be the least flawed in the NHL. They play great defense, they get solid goaltending, they have an abundance of gifted offensive players. They can play physical and they’re winning. They can win 6-4 or 2-1 or 6-1 for that matter and this might be (barring injuries) the very last time this year that they’ll be a pooch in their own barn. The Canadiens have the least amount of losses in the league with two but I’m not close to being convinced that they’re among the best in the league. Not yet anyway. Following two very close, one-goal games that could have gone either way against Minnesota and the Islanders, the Habs have dropped two of three to Toronto and Columbus. They’re quick and they’re talented but in no way can you convince me that they’re better then the Bruins because they’re not. The Canadiens can still be bumped around and physically dominated. Boston has reeled off seven wins in their last eight games and that includes going into Chicago last night and defeating the previously unbeaten at home and very warm Blackhawks. The Bruins will be fired up here and so will the arena, as for the first time since Esposito, Orr, Bucyk and Middleton laced it up for the Bruins, the whole city and team knows they’re on to something big and laying it on the Habs is likely their number one priority. Play: Boston +1.08 (Risking 3 units).

 

[Slickwitdadick]

i just have to say one thing. not because i am a homer. not to trash u as i always look for your plays. not to say that i even disagree with your play...

i do hate trends where people say well after 2 days rest giving up 1 goal in their last game a team is this and this ATS. to me thats a useless trend that has no effect on an upcoming game.

however, to completely disregard the habs dominance not 20 years ago, not 10, not 5...but last year is foolish. these are pretty much the exact same teams. both filled with good talent both young and old. thats why it matters.

the habs are not 8-2 dating back to 2003. they are 8-0 vs bruins in regular season games dating back to last year lol. if bruins fall early in their minds it will be a matter of well here we go again.

one thing i can agree with u on is if the bruins play like they have this year and the habs play like they have minus last game vs ottawa (who really are not that good anyways)..bruins win.

 

[Doug]

Price is getting much better on Boston ( about +120) now.

Why ?

 

[sherwood]

probably because of Montreal's dominance, also Boston playing tail end of back-to-back after OT win last night. Also, Bruins not getting then credit they deserve but this team is that good and the oddsmakers will catch on soon. Remember Carolina a few years back? They got off to a hot start and the oddsmakers didn't adjust for about six weeks. They won the cup that year.

 

[knucklecup]

Like this.

 

[1point4g]

I agree it is because of the Montreal dominance and the B2B theory. That along with speculation that Fernandez is between the pipes for Boston tonight sporting a 2-2 mark whit a 3.76 & .860 SV% vs. the Habs helps bolster the increase on Montreal.

That being said I like the pick and will root for the " Bahstan Broons" along side you.

Best of luck

 

[barman]

I'd say it has far more to do with the Habs' 16-3 record against Boston going back to just the spring of 2007 that catches more eyes than the "record in Boston since 2003"

ah well...no such dominance assures future results

Best to us all for an enjoyable game.

 

[Doug]

probably because of Montreal's dominance, also Boston playing tail end of back-to-back after OT win last night. Also, Bruins not getting then credit they deserve but this team is that good and the oddsmakers will catch on soon. Remember Carolina a few years back? They got off to a hot start and the oddsmakers didn't adjust for about six weeks. They won the cup that year.

I recall we hit a big future on that one, Brian !

 

[Doug]

I filled Boston at +112 at Matchbook, getting a bit of a short line, didn't see the move coming, or know why it happened.

Took a smaller position on Boston -1.5 +315

It's all good when it wins ! :missingte:howdy::toast:

 

[barman]

The result of this game creates a good opportunity for anyone who'd needs to save a late night emergency run to the 7-11 for bathroom supplies.

Go to my Frozen Pond thread, print out the post with my Hot PreGame Analysis of MON/BOS and you have a nice big 8x11 piece of poo poo paper.

 

[Bushay]

Great pick Sherwood. You nailed another one.

 

[Doug]

Brian: Nice pick, and I know your style... no way did you not have the Bruins -1.5 pucks at about +300, you had that for sure, it's you. :howdy:

I know how you think !

 

[Doug]

I know this Sherwood/Brian guy ! He likes dogs in general... if he likes a fav he will lay a half puck, maybe even a puck and a half.

He never takes back the half puck, or the puck and a half, never,ever ! I know him like a book ! :missingte

His style works for him.

If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it !

he never lays on Ml's, he will sacrifice on the fav.

 

[Doug]

Sherwood lays/ never takes ! Once in awhile he should find value trying taking (IMO). Sometimes the value might lie there ?

I rarely do it myself, I'm just more open-minded about it. I'd like to see him at least try a +1.5 -180 line. :missingte, once in his life.

 

[sherwood]

You're 100% right Doug. With all due respect (well, not really) to those that lay -1.80 or more taking back goals, the day I take back 1½ goals and lay -180 is the day they can have me committed.

Onward to today, as you're only as good as your last pick...arty: