One Play I really Love - NORTH TEXAS + 17 1/2

[NoBS]

<TABLE class=tborder id=post2335646 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_2335646 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #2b295e 1px solid">Anyone have any thoughts or opinions on this one ?

I know I am pulling the trigger hard on the Mean green.

Now, no doubt the Mean Green arent going to be winning their conference, and they arent a great team. This bet is more of a bet against Ball State - 17 1/2 ??? Are you kidding me.

The Cardinals had 1 good year. And now they start this year with a madly inflated number. Nate davis is gone, Their Head Coach Hoke is gone. They return 1 starter on The OL. They return 1 starting WR. Their QB's are all unproven without any college level experience. This is a team that traditionally sucks. They went 12-0 against a crap schedule last year and when they finally had to face some decent competition, they got smoked in back to back games.

Not to mention, pretty much their entire starting team from last year is gone. How do you lay or favor a team by 17 1/2 when we dont even know who the starting QB is yet ? And even if they have decided, whoever it is has no college experience. Justice is their most experienced QB and has has 3 competions in his college career.

Now the mean green, return 9 on offense and 8 or 9 on Defense. Yes, they had a bad year last year finshing 1-11. BUT, their losses came against KANSAS STATE, a 10-3 Tulsa team, LSU, a 9-3 Rice team, an 8-4 TROY team. My point is, they played much much stronger competition and while that makes your record suffer, it also makes you a better team.

These 2 teams had 1 common opponent last year, WESTERN KENTUCKY. Ball State won by 17, and the Mean Green won by 11.

If the Mean Green played Ball States schedule last year, they would have probably gone, 5-7 or 6-6. The mean green has a lot of their team still in place. Its all new and unknown for Ball State.

Would you really want to lay 17 1/2 here ?

Im really ready for the start of football. Any opinions on this game. Its on ESPNU 2 thursdays from tommorow, so it will get heavy action. Should I wait or take the 17 1/2. My feeling is to take the 17 1/2 because if it falls 1 point that matters, but I really need it to go to 20 1/2 for it to matter.

Here I am going to say it now. The Mean Green just might win this game. I am not saying they will, just they might. I will take the points, but this should be a close game.

Any thoughts ?
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Posted this on the other forum, just looking to get others opinions before I pound this play even harder than I already have.
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[SoonerBS]

You've pretty much posted the reasons to play on UNT here and I can't disagree with you. Good luck!

 

[CrapGame]

I play Ball St every year and for the exception of last year usually fade them.
On O there really is just a couple of players returning and I think they are going with a true frosh at QB. They are also starting a new head coach.

On the D they have the d line returning and the LB's. The line is decent but undersized. One of the LB's was all MAC last year. Secondary is untested. I see the d able to stop the run but stopping the passing game I don't know. Can the D win the game?

I don't know that much about North Texas. Mean green is also starting a Frosh QB?

NT +17.5 I think is a great play.

Is this a ML game for the Mean Green? I think so.

I am leaning towards the under of 59. Two Frosh QB's starting!
Could turn into a straight up running game eating up the clock.

 

[NoBS]

Yeah I agree. I am not moneyline on this either.

Maybe just small, If I can find it at +1200-+1500

Then I will play the + 17.5 3.3 units to win 3
and the moneyline at maybe .1 unit to win 1.2 units.

They probably wont win, but it should be a close game. The 17 1/2 is too much. I posted this on 2 boards, and I havent seen one person try to back Ball State - 17 1/2. That is just WAY too many points. I would call this Ball State - 3 maybe just because they are the home team.

 

[dasqueel]

I totally agree with this selection. The starting R-fresh for NT is Riley Dodge, a once four star recruit who is the son of the the head coach.

 

[NickyE]

This game is a no play. There isn't any reason to play a disaster of a team like North Texas. Ball State lost a lot but they return there stud running back in Lewis. There are so many games to take over this one. North Texas hasn't shown anything to make them a good play. They return some starters. That's fine if they were a solid team last year. I would want to wait and see how they perform in the first few weeks.

 

[dasqueel]

Excluding there one win, they would have only won two games giving them 17.5 points....

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/schedules/team/2008/ntexas/

 

[Buckeyemac]

I also played NT+17' as I believe there is good value here. NT's QB Riley Dodge [ coach's son ] was injured Last year and took a red shirt. He knows the system, he is a dual threat QB, and was the Gatorade player of the year in his senior year in high school. NT returns a lot of experience and are now facing a Buzz team from LY in Ball St that is rebuilding their offense. Ball St. is weaker this year and North Texas is stronger this year. NT looks to be a value bet here to me...lets hope so.
Best Wishes
Buckeyemac

 

[20ptdog]

I think this is a good ID of one team being over valued via the line, but as one poster pointed out, I think this is a no play.

If someone put a gun to your head, and you HAD TO cap some of these games, I guess, but if you ranked every game of the opening week in terms of most favorable betting opportunities, is this 17.5 pt line among the top 10 opportunities?

;+)-

I don't know the answer to that, but everyone should ask that question before making any bet.

 

[JakeT.]

Stood out to me too. I had Ball State at -10 when I set my own lines.

 

[rickrock]

UNT is a huge play. Those who say it is a no play do not realize that it takes time for an offense with so many new parts to get into sync. The money line on 5 Dimes has been between +800 and +825 and is worth a bit of speculation.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I don't know that North Texas will improve any this season from last -- they may even have regressed some as a team, if that's possible -- but Riley Dodge is probably going to be for real. He was a Texas recruit before his dad took the Mean Green job. He's cut from the same cloth as guys like Chase Daniel and Todd Reesing.

 

[JakeT.]

I don't know that North Texas will improve any this season from last, but Riley Dodge is probably going to be for real. He was a Texas recruit before his dad took the Mean Green job. He's cut from the same cloth as guys like Chase Daniel and Todd Reesing.

Keep in mind that he only played sparingly (2 passes) as a frosh but was one of the most recruited QBs in the nation and also played for his dad in this same offense while in HS.

 

[silver7]

I played it for a small $$. Ball St, is really bad, NO WAY s/b this much chalk over anyone.

 

[goblue12]

I will be on the other side. That way, one of us wins!

GL!

 

[LonnieTGator]

Ball lost their coach a great quarterback and many other ofensive players this line is too high its north texas or no bet

 

[NoBS]

I think this is a good ID of one team being over valued via the line, but as one poster pointed out, I think this is a no play.

If someone put a gun to your head, and you HAD TO cap some of these games, I guess, but if you ranked every game of the opening week in terms of most favorable betting opportunities, is this 17.5 pt line among the top 10 opportunities?

;+)-

I don't know the answer to that, but everyone should ask that question before making any bet.

I rank it as #1 by a longshot. I dont see any other play that I like near as well. The more I research this play, I actually think North Texas is going to win this game.

 

[NoBS]

As others have said,

Dodge knows the offense and played in it under his dad in high school.

He led his team to 5A Texas state championship in 2007

He was named Texas 5A player of the year.

Was good enough to be recruited by Texas.

Was one of the most heavily recruited QB's.

Has a gun of an arm.

Dodge may well just pick Ball States sucky Defense apart.

 

[NoBS]

This team should be major fired up and ready to go.

They are going to give 100% to not let a repeat of last year happen.

Last year, they played a far far far stronger schedule than Ball State. They played Kansas State, LSU, Tulsa, Troy, Rice. All these teams would have kicked that shat out of Ball State as well. In fact, Tulsa beat Ball State by a bigger margin then they beat North Texas by.

 

[msmith2179]

I like all of your reasonings here. I'll follow. Good luck this year