One Major Play and First Posted Play of Bowl Season for Tuesday

[Kojak]

I have looked closely at the Insight Bowl and feel there is a ton of value with Notre Dame at +4.5. Irish players are playing for their jobs as Weis taking over as coach. Oregon St. really has not played up to potential with Anderson at quarterback and have found ways to lose. Irish will be looking for some payback from Fiesta Bowl debacle a few years back vs Oregon St. Difference in this game will be Irish ablility to run and stop the run. They will be able to control clock and force Oregon St. to be one dimensional on offense forcing Anderson to beat them. Anderson has not gotten the job done this year imo and won't here.
Large Play on Notre Dame +4.5
Notre Dame 28 Oregon St. 17


LOL.

 

[mickj]

What's the LOL for?

 

[bearmz]

Must be joking.

OreSt #8 Pass O vs ND's #114 Pass D
ND #77 Rush O vs OS #30 Rush D
ND #54 Pass O vs OS #28 Pass D
ND #58 Pass Eff O vs OS #6 Pass Eff D

The one weak link in OS SQB Anderson's resume is his 17 INTs/25 TDs. They outyarded USC by 200+ TY.
ND without 2 WRs and best Pass rusher Tuck is doubtful for game with a knee injury.
Last 2 games ND allowed 5 TD passes each to USC and Pitt.
OS may not be able to run, but will ND be able to score? Their WRs suck and TE Fasano was their best receiver early and somehow was forgotten.
Last loss to OS would only affect 5th yr players anyway. Most ND players could care less about that game. ND players originally didn't even want to play in this bowl.
My only question is why is it only 3'-4' pts? I really can't see how ND can score. If ND can't pressure Anderson, score could be similar to previous bowl result.

 

[Kruser6]

Maybe the lol meant that he really thinks Oregon State is going to win. However if he does then he shouldnt make post like that for it is no real help to the forum. Bearmz. . . Great write-up . . . I really think you have this one pegged, but everyone and there mom will probably be on Oregon State tonight as well. Good Luck. . I am joining the majority on this one tonight.

 

[twjd]

I agree with Bearmz, the stats indicate Oregon St should win the game.

 

[docmercer--banned]

70% on Org State ... about the same figure on Toledo yesterday

 

[joelatti]

But Toledo was hiding an injury to their star QB......

 

[Kojak]

Guys,


The lol is just saying good luck on your plays nothing else meant by it. Second, why hasn't look at who these teams have beaten. I know Oregon St. has played LSU, Boise St., Cal, USC but ND has played a just as tough schedule and actually beat some decent teams in Michigan and Tennessee. I don't see any of those type wins on Beavers schedule. I know that ND is without coach but these players are auditioning for Weis. To me they have more motivation than a Beaver team that hasn't gotten it done. I like the payback angle for Irish here as they will win su imo. BOL.

 

[Hanzandfranz]

What about motivation?

I heard on ESPN radio today that 1/3 of the ND senior class voted not to play in a bowl game.......which would lead me to question their motivation for this game. I do not follow ND enough to know % of senior starters.......can anyone provide more insight?

 

[Kojak]

handzandfranz,

Key Irish Players are not seniors such Quinn,Walker,Tuck, etc. It is the players who will be playing for Weis next year are the keys to the game. Not a senior oriented team imo.

 

[airbag]

Second, why hasn't look at who these teams have beaten. I know Oregon St. has played LSU, Boise St., Cal, USC but ND has played a just as tough schedule and actually beat some decent teams in Michigan and Tennessee. I don't see any of those type wins on Beavers schedule. I know that ND is without coach but these players are auditioning for Weis. To me they have more motivation than a Beaver team that hasn't gotten it done. I like the payback angle for Irish here as they will win su imo. BOL.

Take a look at the last 6 games of the season for both teams (games after October 2nd, when OS got crushed by Cal, and ND got crushed by Purdue). OS only lost to USC by 8 points, and outgained USC by 200+ yards. This was OS's only loss. Meanwhile, ND lost to Pitt (16 pt dogs to Utah!), lost to BC (who couldn't beat Pitt at home for a BCS spot), and lost to USC by 31 points (on a wet foggy day). Sure, they won at Tenn but were outgained by 100+ yards. The way I see it, the only way that ND can keep it close is if they get the turnovers. I actully think that they will get some turnovers, but not enough to cover. Oregon St. 28 Notre Dame 19

 

[BookUm]

In Spirit, Willingham will be on the sideline. "Alot of guys are looking to win it for Coach Willingham- thats where everybody is at" sophomore QB Quin says. He has a big presence, His spirit still lives on, its about being a man and doing things the right way."

Notre Dame seniors put the issue up for vote & about 70% of the team decided to play.
Got say myself, the Spirit is very strong & Notre Dame plays for TY..

 

[FNGinFL]

Kojak...

Love your picks normally, and really appreciate your time and thoughts, but I can't agree with your Notre Dame assessment.

These ND guys are auditioning for their new coach? Please. What kind of groupthink junkie, tout or hack thought that line up? These guys didn't even WANT to go to a bowl, period. Now they WANT to "audition" in a game, on national TV? With no head coach? To give a new coach some game film to look at? :WTF:

What kind of idiot does this person that thought THAT phrase up take us for? I'm sure it wasn't you, as I have followed you, and you are much smarter than that.

Now these ND players are supposed to be magically "motivated" to whack a decent PAC-10 team to avenge Ty Willingham in response to him getting fired? AND have an "audition" for next year?

In the beginning of the Spring, all bets are off, and everyone re-tries EVERY year. Then late Summer rolls around, and the strong starting lineup begins to take shape. Audition?

Notre Dame WON'T be able to score, as both wide receivers Stovall and Shelton are hurt, and starting defensive end Tuck won't play, either. OreSt has better rush AND pass defense.

With all due respect to you and your skills, I am not bashing you. I have no favorite in this matchup, but I can read the trends and stat pages. ND is 1-6 SU in bowls the last ten years, aren't they?

Derek Anderson didn't play for as long as Timmy Chang, but he sure came close, and that record would be his if it weren't for Chang. He closed out this year in his normal style - 1,015 yards in the final three games with nine touchdowns and seven picks, including four against Stanford. He threw for 322 yards in last year's Las Vegas Bowl against New Mexico and 319 in the 2002 Insight Bowl loss to Pittsburgh. But without much of a running game, Anderson will be bombing away against the piss-poor Irish secondary.

If Oregon State gets up early, this will be a bloodbath! This isn't an explosive Notre Dame attack, even WITH coaching! And even if the Irish get a few breaks and get up, OSU will be able to get back in it by chucking it all over the place. Oregon State has the No. 8 passing attack while Notre Dame is 114th against the pass.

Let's look at history: Uh oh. The Irish lost to this same coached team a few years back 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl, with a spread in this same range. Expect similar results tonight. Done.

Unless you plan on betting the second-half line, you ought to be able to hit the hay by halftime tonight if you're on the East Coast. Peace, and good luck to you sir.

 

[FNGinFL]

Oh and one more thing...

Another reason I REALLY like Oregon State, it's that idiot tout "Big Al" Mcmordie's "Game of the Year", and he's all over Notre Dame: "...as the Irish fall into 5 systems of mine which are 8-0, 54-14, 43-15, 63-30, and 32-14 ATS since 1976..." blah blah blah :finger:

Seems to me he's sh*t the bed in every single GOY this year, like his GOY game this past weekend where he picked San Francisco to keep it close with Buffalo (I faded him and $$$$).

Again, good luck to you and all. :digit:

 

[tomone]

nd

They are just the bettter team, a team who did notr want to play for TY, THE TRUTH IS THE SENIORS SAID THEY WANTED WEISE AS THEIR COACH LAST SUMMER. ND 28 high school all americans, should have been 10-1 this year, not could have should have.

 

[Kojak]

Lets take a deeper look here :

Common Opponents: Stanford, Washington, and USC.

Oregon St. beat Stanford by 5, Washington by 15, SC lost by 8.

Notre Dame beat Stanford by 8, Washington by 35, SC lost by 31.

Fairly even except OSU game with SC skewed by fog imo.

Both teams win list was very unimpressive.

OSU beat Wash, Wash St., Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, and Stanford.

ND beat Navy, Mich, Mich St., Tennessee, Stanford, and Wash.

ND has beat the better teams imo.

In terms of the senior question, there are 17 seniors out of 111 players at Notre Dame. Of which 5 imo are major contributors in Tuck, Goolsby, Clark, Halliday, and Grant. If they plan on rolling over here would be a huge mistake with new coach Weis from NFL who well respected and connected. Only would be hurting their draft status imo. Tuck and Goolsby are their two best defenders and always play hard. These seniors were around for the embarrassing loss to Oregon St in Fiesta and will want payback as they did not know who they were going to play when vote taken.

Throw in the fact that Riley was not the coach at OSU as someone mentioned it was Erickson, means Riley was not around for that beating he was at San Diego or unemployed.

Bottom Line is I like the Irish and feel strongly about it. I wish all those who like Beavers luck. Win or lose I will be able to live with myself either way but I will stick with my side.

 

[ProphetablePicks]

10-1 ......LMFAO???? are you kidding me. Don't make ignorant comments such as this.:nono5:

 

[Kojak]

Prophetable,

What are you talking about 10-1. I never made any such claim, ???

 

[TheOdyssey]

He is talking about tomone's comment that ND should be 10-1.

 

[_wheredatreezat]

He's referring to tomone, not you Jack...