One bet changed the entire year!

[Piranha]

Still savoring the Superbowl bet because this was by far the worst year in the NFL for me. Even the playoffs......didn't do too well picking the winners but..... the ones I picked went big and offset the losers. So with the last game to go heard so much talk about not betting so big on this one game on a value stand point (it's just another game).

For me my philosophy is different. The big game got to have big money on it. So went ahead and play large and luckily won, so now for the year up very little definitely better than losing alot.

It's so satisfying! This Superbowl was my biggest bet so far in my 17 years. Also wondering for the big betters how big is big here in this forum? I know someone close who wagers 3 dimes/game during the regular season and 10 dimes/game during the playoffs. Superbowl he wagered 50 dimes and won over 90 dimes.

 

[wilheim]

Piranha congrats on getting out for the season. No one knows for sure what any particular poster bets per game but your friend's 50 Dime SB bet is definitely the exception rather than the rule. We have every kind of bettor posting here and would guess the majority bet under a dime a game although there are some high rollers posting here as well.


Good luck, wil.

 

[Piranha]

So far this year in this forum I know JJ = 30 dimes (college-game), Jim Fiest = over 20 dimes (superbowl-under), Alan Palmer = 15 dimes (Pitts-NFL-playoffs).

For me that is huge. Normal play = 200 - 1000.

 

[valueman]

I'm glad you "got out" for the season but as you identified this was luck and not skill or judgement.

I bet using kelly criterion so my huge bets are when I percieve the odds to be heavily in my favor and would advise that rather than big game = big bet.

 

[Piranha]

As far as the Superbowl is concern.......not luck. Have been winning 4 Superbowl plays in the last 5. Believe in the money theory for the big game.....that is which side the money is at.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Nice, but risky. That's gambling.


I like a gambler.

 

[SoundofSilence]

So went ahead and play large and luckily won,

As far as the Superbowl is concern.......not luck.

You admit you were lucky, then say it wasn't luck. That generally means it was luck. Congrats on the win, but a money management system of "big game means big money" generally isn't very smart. If anything the "big game" has a much sharper line, so you'd be better off following "small game, big money".

 

[Piranha]

Like I said before my theory on big game (Superbowl) is to watch the money action (like Slim). Some believe, some don't......it's all good as long as your style of playing makes you money.

This year my style of playing didn't work so well but when it came down to the final game like most other year it came through for me.

As far as the word "luck" is concern I should have use "fortunate". My bad!

 

[Kiss1]

Also wondering for the big betters how big is big here in this forum?

The average bet in this forum is around 50 bucks, I usually go about 20 bucks. Anyone who brags about betting "dimes" is a pathetic bag of horseshi*t.

How much did you say you bet again ?

 

[GreenDoberman]

I agree with Kiss, the ones that bet the big money are the ones that don't boast about it on here. Those that talk about how many "dimes" they bet are blowhards.


As evidence, see our WSOP team threads where we are up in the $1000 range on our next bet, and most are quaking in their boots at the thought of betting this much on a game.

 

[Piranha]

Everybody got to relax because first of all I never boasted. I even admitted I was having a losing year until Superbowl. I don't bet dimes on a game on a regular basis. If you read earlier in my post I range anywhere from 200 to 1000. My average bet a game through the NFL season would be 400-500. I would bet a dime usually only on Monday night games if I like it ALOT.

I don't even know why there would be even an attack on this post or why I'm defending myself. All I wanted to say is that I'm so relief that I didn't have to lose this season thanks to one large wager. My wager I'm sure is not that large compare to others in this forum.

Usually if I'm winning I play ultra conservative......but when I'm losing I'm much more aggressive because I want my money back. I'm like that on the blackjack tables. Everyone has their own style. Not one style is right or wrong. Bottom line is "to win" and as long as you can achieve that with whatever style of playing then that all that matters.

 

[valueman]

GL Piranha - if your system works for you then all the best.

Just be honest to yourself - we don't give a rats **** if you make money or not but don't delude yourself that you are smart when in fact you are lucky or that you're up when you are down.

You're betting log tells all.

 

[Doug]

Usually if I'm winning I play ultra conservative......but when I'm losing I'm much more aggressive because I want my money back. I'm like that on the blackjack tables.

You're still a classic chaser ! When you lose, you will lose hard ! If you're 5-1 on Superbowls, or whatever, that can't be maintained. It's still just another game. Overbetting is what kills most people. Consider yourself fortunate.... SO FAR !

 

[viking611]

Fortunate for blown coverage and a LUCKY touchdown for the cover. Vegas very fortunate as well. Good luck to you in the future.

 

[lakerfan]

Chasing makes it so everyone can continue to get bonuses and reduced juice. I would advise everyone to continue to do it. If down double up. If it doesn't work, just repeat.

 

[Dante]

Chasing makes it so everyone can continue to get bonuses and reduced juice. I would advise everyone to continue to do it. If down double up. If it doesn't work, just repeat.

:lolBIG:

 

[Piranha]

It's apparent Valueman that you must be jealous that I'm no longer losing for the year otherwise .....why the need to make all these negative remarks. I would guess you're still down for the year and that's why the attack. It's funny how you accused me of lying about my winnings and put words in my mouth claiming I'm smart to start a conflict.

I did admit I was having a bad season and naturally my betting log would show that. This NFL season has been very bad even for the elite cappers in this forum. They posted throughout the season that they haven't experience a bad season like this in a while (if ever).

Doug, agree I'm a classic chaser. Good or bad that's just my style. Agree again that I'm fortunate after most Superbowl. Been doing this for so long now...if it ain't broke ......don't fix it!

I am so grateful to this forum for making me a better player......listening and getting info to make my plays for the past 3 years. Fact: Since I have learn about this forum I haven't had a losing season and that's thanks to all those great cappers out there helping me make the right plays.

I want to thanks Judge the years before and Slim this year for their valuable inputs. Without your info I would not be as prosperous.

 

[Doug]

Best Wishes, ( To borrow a line)

 

[sportsbet]

No luck is involved in a playoff game this season with the Eagles ATS!!!!

3-0!

arty:

sb

 

[valueman]

Piranha - I am up $30k since oct - which is the start of season for me so jealousy is certainly not the issue.

I'm glad you got out of jail in the superbowl so don't get me wrong - i'm trying to help you out in that your betting habits are the road to ruin.

Take the advice how you will - just trying to help you out.