On The Hop's 2014-2015 NFL Football

[OnTheHop]

Last season was a good one. I focused more on making what I felt were the right plays as opposed to just the "sharp" plays. Results can be found here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=964848


0-0-0 +0

Seattle Seahawks -4 (-116), 1/2 unit: Small play to open the season as the number keeps bouncing around and I'm not sure I have the best read. That being said the number has come down to a point where it has to be the Seahawks or nothing for me. This is a dominant, once in a lifetime defense playing in the toughest road environment in the league against a rookie C that has not taken a single snap with Rodgers at QB. The Packers D does not impress me and everything I've read tells me Russell Wilson worked harder in this offseason than ever before. There is a ton of action on GB. Finally, the Seahawks are dominant at home in September. Give me the defending Champs in this one.

 

[OnTheHop]

1-0-0 +.5

Atlanta Falcons +3, 1 unit: Not much went right for the Falcons last season. Injury after injury to their offense left them unable to move the ball which left their defense on the field way too long. They are healthy this year and they are undervalued due to last season. The Saints on the other hand are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with weapons all over the field on offense. However, two things stand out to me. First, the Falcons probably have the better, more aggressive defense. Second, the Saints at home are awesome. The Saints on the road are mediocre at best. I'll grab the home team and the points.
New York Jets -5.5 (-103), 1 unit: Rookie QB on the road against a Rex Ryan D? Did I mention they have to travel all the way across country to play an early morning game (according to their body clocks)? The Jets offense will be more explosive this year with Johnson and Decker. Smith has a year under his belt and if things don't go well they'll bring in Vick. As long as the Jets contain MJD I like their chances.
Houston Texans -3 (-118), 1 unit: The Redskins just haven't looked good in the preseason. Will RG3 be better this year? Absolutely. But he's not going to get well against this Texans D. Their ability to get to the passer and to cover might be better than anybody in the league. Their offense? That's a different story. However if there is anyone that Fitzpatrick can manage a game against and still put enough points on the board it's Washington. Look for a heavy dose of Foster and the Texan tight ends to be running free all day and for the home crowd to carry Houston to a win.
New England Patriots -4 (-102), 1 unit: This scares me because it looks too easy. That being said, sometimes I get caught up in trying to be "sharp" as opposed to right. The Patriots are a much better team with a vastly improved defense. I don't love laying points on the road but this one seems like the right time to do it.
Denver Broncos -7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Let me be straight forward about this one.....it's a little bit of a degenerate play. I wanted action on the Sunday night game and this could be a force. That being said, the Broncos have really improved their defense and even without Welker and Decker I don't think they lose much on offense. This team has a chip on its shoulder after the Super Bowl and I expect that to show tonight. The Colts are a team that I just can't back. Their D isn't good enough and they don't run the ball well enough. Take them out of the dome into the thin air at a fast pace and I like them even less.

 

[OnTheHop]

Dallas Cowboys +4 (-109), 1 unit: The Niners are a mess on both sides of the ball. While I have zero hope that the Cowboys can stop San Francisco it's not a given that the Niners can stop Dallas due to injuries and suspensions. Right now in what looks like a shootout I'll take the much better offense at home getting points.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck my friend!!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

3-4-0 -1.69

Detroit Lions -6 (-105), 1 unit
Arizona Cardinals -3 (+105), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks XS. Good luck to you this year as well.

 

[OnTheHop]

4-4-0 -1.69

Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens o44.5, 1/2 unit

 

[ibex]

OTH, whats your leanings for Sunday? Thx

 

[OnTheHop]

4-5-0 -2.24

New York Giants PICK, 1 unit: Liked this one even before the news on Palmer came out. Tough spot for the Cardinals traveling across country on short rest. Public perception is greatly skewed by Giants performance against a good Detroit team.
Chicago Bears +7 (-105), 1 unit: Niners are overvalued here. Bears can move the ball against a defense that were turned into world beaters by Cowboy turnovers. A lot of hype and excitement surrounding the opening of the new stadium and this is a circle the wagons game for the Bears who know another loss and the playoffs are a long, long, long shot.
San Diego Chargers +4.5, 1/2 unit: I really hate playing against the Seahawks. However, on the road they're not the same team. Getting some value here due to the Chargers Monday night loss. Rivers looks good and if they avoid turnovers I think the Chargers keep this one inside a FG. Keep in mind Seattle has Denver on the schedule next week.
Buffalo Bills PICK (+100), 1 unit: The Dolphins win over the Pats was impressive. So was the Bills win over the Bears. The Bills will be able to run the ball and Manuel tends to be much better at home. Buffalo has one of the better defenses in the league and I expect them to shut down the Miami offense today. Give me a fired up home crowd for their 1-0 team, celebrating their former owner and I'll take it at even.
Dallas Cowboys +3 (+103), 1 unit: Hold your nose and hope. Cowboys actually outgained the Niners last week and if they can just keep the turnovers down they have a chance. Titans dominated a Chiefs team that has been on a downward spiral since the middle of last season. This is a FG game and I'll grab the points.
There's No Way Any of Them Can Go 0-2 But The Points Scare Me ML Parlay (+189), 1 unit: New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers

 

[OnTheHop]

Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-112), 1/2 unit: This is nothing more than a gut feeling play. Seeing a lot of "experts" and "social media experts" all on the same side....the Colts. I liked the Eagles as soon as I saw the line and am still not a believer in the Colts. In what should be a shootout I'll grab the more potent offense and the points.

 

[OnTheHop]

9-7-0 -.24

Atlanta Falcons -6.5 (-105), 1 unit: I looked for reasons to play Tampa. I know this is a square side. I know the public is all over the Falcons and I know Roddy White is out. All of that being said, the Falcons are a much better team, playing at home where (other than last year when they were injury riddled) they are basically unstoppable. Atlanta has advantages all over the field and even though this game screams trap I cannot help myself.

 

[OnTheHop]

10-7-0 +.76

Arizona Cardinals +3, 1 unit: I've seen all the stats regarding the Niners on the road, after a loss, etc...however I am just not impressed with San Francisco this year. They've faced two awful defenses so far, losing to one at home and beating the other because the Cowboys turned the ball over 423 times. Finally, this just isn't the San Fran D of last year. In what should be a closely fought game with a lot of run plays I'll take the home team getting points.
Green Bay Packers +2, 1 unit: I hate making this play. There's no way it can be right. Public underdogs are the absolute worst side to be on. That being said, this is the better team getting points and I can't avoid it.
Seattle Seahawks -4 (-118), 1 unit: Last week's results make this a nice play. Don't forget that Denver had to hold off Indy and KC at home. Now they go on the road to face a Seahawks team that is being devalued due to a loss where their opponent played the perfect game. Seattle is just too tough at home. Don't expect Manning to be able to audible with the noise and I don't think Denver can run the ball against the Seahawks either. Denver's D doesn't impress anybody and I look for the home team to get back on track this week.
New York Giants -1 (-105), 1 unit: They have to stop turning the ball over at some point, right? It's desperation time for the Giants. Without Foster I imagine the Giants will blitz frequently and dare Fitzpatrick to beat them. Even though he has struggled, Manning is a much better QB and I think New York just finds a way somehow today.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (+105), 1 unit: It was just two weeks ago that the Steelers dominated (for much of the game) a Browns team that just upset New Orleans. But, with the memory of the turd they laid in Baltimore fresh in people's minds along with Carolina's dominance of a bad road Detroit team (after squeaking by what is clearly an awful Tampa team) they are favored. Give me the Steelers who are the better running team with a little extra rest and the points.
San Diego Chargers +2 (-105), 1 unit: As soon as I made this play I felt bad about it. This is a total let down spot for San Diego. That being said, the Bills have been fortunate to win two games where they have been out "first downed" by opponents. This is also a let down spot for the Bills after their huge win over Miami after news broke on the sale of the team. I trust San Diego to move the ball a little more than I trust Buffalo and will take the points in what should be a very close game.

 

[OnTheHop]

Chicago Bears +1.5 (-108), 1 unit: Even though they had a late game on the West Coast last week and are coming East this week, the Bears are a much better team. Neither defense is very good and I expect this to turn into a shootout. I'll take the better QB, better offensive coach and better offense overall even on the road.

 

[OnTheHop]

16-8-1 +5.71

Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-105), 1 unit: No doubt the Eagles have been lucky to survive their first three games. That being said the Niners have been equally bad. In what should be a shootout I will take the much more dynamic offense against a defense living on name reputation.
New York Jets +1 (-105), 1 unit: Big overreaction to the Monday Night loss. The officials really took this one from the Jets and I expect them to bounce back this week. The Lions continue to be explosive at home and poor on the road. They continually follow up big wins with perplexing losses and their inability to move the ball on the ground and control the clock will make this one tough.
Miami Dolphins -3 (-125), 1 unit: The Raiders are awful. Just awful. They've also gone East Coast to West Coast to East Coast to Europe. Even though the Dolphins haven't shown a lot it's tough not to back them at such a small number.
Baltimore Ravens -3, 1 unit: I just can't get behind this Carolina team. They are so out of sync on offense and their skill position players are really limited. While their defense is still solid their offense can't keep them off the field. On the other side the Ravens are a different team at home and continue to find ways to win. The loss of Pitta will hurt but I expect Daniels to step up and become a Flacco favorite.
Atlanta Falcons -4 (-107), 1 unit: Why? Why? Why am I doing this? I can't avoid it and I know it is a trap.

 

[OnTheHop]

New Orleans Saints -3 (+105), 1 unit: Too much being made of the Saints can't win on the road thing for this reason....tonight they are indoors on a fast track, just like at home. This is a huge step up in competition for Dallas and I just don't see how their defense can stay with the Saints. Meanwhile Rob Ryan simplified the Saints D strategy last week and I think the momentum and improvement carries over this week.

 

[OnTheHop]

Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-120)

 

[OnTheHop]

19-12-1 +4.54

Green Bay Packers -7 (-120), 1 unit: Whether or not Bridgewater plays is irrelevant. The Vikings are getting too much love for beating a team that cannot win outside and had seen little to no film on the Vikings QB. The Packers are better in almost every facet of the game. No reason to overthink this one, especially with Minnesota coming off an emotional win on short rest.

 

[OnTheHop]

20-12-1 +5.54

Chicago Bears +3 (-135), 1 unit: The Bears defense continued to be exposed last week. However the Panthers just don't have the weapons to take advantage. They're down to their 3rd RB and I still can't name any of their WR's. The one thing the Bears can do is cover the TE so I'm not sure how they score. The Bears offense is still explosive and I think they can do enough to get a road win.
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 (-105), 1 unit: Bortles impressed me last week and I think he continues his efficient ways at home. Look for Denard Robinson to be more involved this week and getting Ace Sanders back is a boost to the offense as well. The Steelers do not have an impressive win this season and certainly are not good enough to be giving points on the road.
Baltimore Ravens +3 (-105), 1 unit: The Colts success has come from throwing the ball. The Ravens are not vulnerable to the pass, they are vulnerable to the run. The Colts simply cannot run the ball. The Colts are overvalued coming off of two blow out wins against two below average teams
Atlanta Falcons +3.5, 1 unit: Hard to believe I'm going back to the Falcons outside. However, the Giants are overvalued here after beating the Texans without Foster and then crushing a Washington team in disarray. The ball has bounced the Giants way the last few games in the turnover department and they won't keep catching all of those breaks.
Tennessee Titans +1 (-105), 1 unit: The Titans are undervalued as they've played a brutal schedule thus far. Getting Locker back helps as he brings another dimension and Sankey is finally getting comfortable as well. I'm a little concerned that coming off a bye week we see some things from Manziel that the Browns have not shown yet. However I think the Browns are getting too much credit for beating a mediocre Saints team at home and will gladly grab points with the home team in a very even matchup.
San Francisco 49ers -4 (-117), 1 unit: The Monday Night Football effect is in play here. Everyone loves the Chiefs blowing out the Patriots. Two things: the Patriots are bad and now the Chiefs are on a short week against a Niners team that just won a game it had no business winning giving up two ST and one D TD. However on closer look I saw something I had not seen from San Fran and that is the D looks to be back. Whatever adjustments they made against Philadelphia should carry over this week and they should have enough to get it done against KC.

 

[OnTheHop]

New England Patriots -3 (-120), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

22-16-2 +2.94

Houston Texans +3 (-125), 1 unit