Omnivorous Frog thoughts and bs for 4/26...

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Record YTD 4-2 (+2.5 units)
Sea/Sac un 202 1/2 2 units.


Well finally back in black on the YTD record. Que up AC'DC Back in Black please. Alright, actually looked like I had a clue yesterday with a under winning by 25, and an over winning by 34. That one cashed with over 7:42 remaining. But win by a lot, win by a hook, still pays the same. However should inspire some confidence that I am heating up. My personal best call, Usual stiff Lafrentz just as likely to go ofer. Well Raef, thanks for the ofer. Back to stiff you one game wonder. From hero to zero.

Totals have been good to me so far, my hot commodity. 3-0. The Kings were just awful at the pg position, going a combined 1/24. However, even if they did average and got 26 more points, it still went way under. As 87-82 left a lot of room. As it stands, when steamed wrong, very wrong, it was a good 35 points under. Maybe it was a fluke in some aspects, but halftime adjusts by Adelman D'ing up in the key resulted in a pedstrian 32 points in the 2H for the Sonics. This new Kings team without CWebb is capable of playing pretty good D. With the Kings able to figure out what to do to stop Seattle, it is Nate's turn to adjust. Good luck Nate. This team has horrible spacing, ball movement and team offense. This just did not happen. They are now and have been lately, scoring challenged. The Kings may fair slightly better offensively, but Seattle is a sub 90 team. Will keep posting as I cap them.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

 

[spreadbeater]

OF-

Good luck with the total tonight. Personally, I have no real opinion on it as I can see the game being played at a high pace or like it was in game 1. I do, however, have a take on the side for this game. I am currently working on a small writeup for the game and it will be added to my playoff thread shortly. Continued success!

SB

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Sac +3 4 units
Sac $L +1.43 2 units
Sac series +1.90 2 units

This one looks fairly strong from many angles. I just do not see Seattle or James playing above their heads twice in a row. The former center, cut by the Kings came back to haunt them by muscling everyone in the paint. Kings drive to the hoop, fouled, or blocked, you call it, let's just say, after two or three muggings you start lofting up jumpers. And of all those shots, blocks and minutes in the game the Kings pg's attempted a low 2 ft's. I think the Kings fell into a quick hole, not knowing what to expect from the officials. It was very physical. 2H when Miller and Ostertag came in, James looked ordinary again. Seattle started one and done, no movement by the ball or players, bad spacing. Brickfest. Without those gimme offensive putbacks and layups they are a poor shooting team. Speaking of poor shooting, I look by Bibby to bounce pretty well, and wonder if Bobby can shake the rust. If not may see more of Eddie House. Peja had a very good game. Mobley had a very good game, except the crotch grab. Even Miller was out there. Only 8 minutes. Look for him to go closer to 15-20 tonight. He will have to play into game shape, full minutes soon. Still, they are deeper at center. Deeper at pg. Deeper at PF. And have Mobley and Peja who will eat heavy minutes. Plus I think Rick now has a better feel for what to expect coming out. Kings can defend now, especially with quality depth. They got a lot of defensive help, and lost a matador in CWebb. I think you will see many more attempts down low, instead of jacking jumpers. Miller and Tag were very effective point blank. He won't force Bibby and Jackson again. Seattle has holes galore, and mismatches against up and down the lineup. James will regress, he was running out of tricks in game #1. He might not see much of Skinner. Allen gets his points, but is a slack defender and can kill a team by himself if he is cold. Ridnour, weak and ineffective. Lewis is a genuine quality player, but slightly nicked. Except for Antonio Daniels Seattle's bench is a real problem. They just do not have any depth. It really showed in game #1. Nate watched a real nice lead collapse, and his offense slow to a crawl. He watched and watched. I actually thought the Kings were going to win when they got within 1. He still has no clue what to do with the offense. Maybe tonight they come out of the gate a little better, shoot a little better, and continue the momentum of game 1's 2H. At least that is where I am.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

 

[spreadbeater]

OF-

Glad to see that we are on the same side in this one. Our writeups were very similar also, just added mine to my playoff thread. Check it out. good luck tonight

SB

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Mia ov 188 3 units

First 3 unit total but a press on a nice total start. These teams run the floor and score. They are scorers. They are not defenders. The last game ended 214! That was with Heat slowing it down and Nets having a brutal 1-16 stretch. Too many high % shots, no low post defense even with Shaq, he rarely jumps or goes for blocks. And what does Jersey have up front. Nothing. Just another also ran Atlantic division scrub. Total blocks for entire game, 2. That is some passive low post defense. These teams break after made shots. I blame Vince, Kidd and now even RJ as they just let guys, or cannot stop them from blowing by. You have Zo and Shaq dunking on No post U. Or going to the line forever for grab fouls. They had 2 over 50 quarters and a 64 point Q!!! They felt each other out in first Q then off to the races. I think Miami ended up close to 60% fg. Nice D, Nets. Once Miami got that 1Q 22 out of their system, they went 32, 33 and 29 slowing up in 4th. The only way Heat do not get 100 is if they do not want to. I think Nets will actually score a higher % this game to add to the fun. Kind of game with a lot of clock stops and scoring, without the clock moving. FT's galore. Very low number should get abused...

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

 

[SUCCESS]

Keep the posts coming Froggy. You're as good as they come.

 

[SUCCESS]

What about the over 184 in phily/det. Phily likes to run and don't really play
solid defense. Det should score about 100 and Phily will be close to 90.

 

[X-Files]

Mia ov 188 3 units

...Total blocks for entire game, 2...

Maybe you would like this prop from Pinnacle:

<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore><TD class=contestRow vAlign=top width="15%" bgColor=#8fbdf6>Tue 4/26</TD><TD class=contestRow bgColor=#8fbdf6 colSpan=2>Total blocks in the NJ/Mia game:


</TD></TR><TR class=hiliteRow bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk width="15%">05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=auto>243 Over</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width="25%">8.5 blocks -101</TD></TR><TR class=normalRow bgColor=#eeeeee><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=auto>244 Under</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width="25%">8.5 blocks -115</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

What about the over 184 in phily/det. Phily likes to run and don't really play
solid defense. Det should score about 100 and Phily will be close to 90.

Lots of people I respect have the un. Plus some bad stats on Philly overs after blowouts. I will have a lean, minimum 1 unit. Let me take one last look at it.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Det ov 183 1/2 1 unit.

Lot of sharps on other side here so tread with caution. Hit this one already with my first total play. Won fairly easy and early, even with Motown sluggish start. Problem here is bad mismatches along frontline. Ben and Sam pretty much negate each other, and are not much for scoring. But then you get Prince vs. Kyle and Sheed vs CWebb. Those are blatant mismatches. Webb stands 12 feet out, watches action go by. Sheed torched Webb, 11-20 but bigger 10 boards. Worst matchup in playoffs so far, Kyle vs. Prince. Prince 10-15 7 boards. Kyle 1-4, 4 boards. Yikes! With CWebb and Kyle pretending to play defense, Motown just has too many high % looks. Both teams shot wide open 3's most of the game. That will probably happen again. Could be scoring dropoff there, but Korver got none. They will get him some better looks. Another bonus for the over is a division stat I found. Motown is 14-5 over ATS vs Atlantic teams. Yes, they normally are a solid defensive team, but 76ers are an offensive team. Motown is not the second team off the bench defensive monster like last year. They have a scoring bench with Hunter and McDyess. Motown gets all the easy frontline scoring against this type of team. Looks like Motown can get 103 to 104 on 76ers. Not sure what 76ers can or will do. They could lay an egg. But I think they will play better offensively. I think the bench will contribute more scoring. I think Kyle will get more than 2 points. Hate to go against the grain, but have to go with what is working for me. My number still 6 points higher here.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Maybe you would like this prop from Pinnacle:

<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore><TD class=contestRow vAlign=top width="15%" bgColor=#8fbdf6>Tue 4/26</TD><TD class=contestRow bgColor=#8fbdf6 colSpan=2>Total blocks in the NJ/Mia game:




</TD></TR><TR class=hiliteRow bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk width="15%">05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=auto>243 Over</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width="25%">8.5 blocks -101</TD></TR><TR class=normalRow bgColor=#eeeeee><TD width="15%"></TD><TD class=main_body_blk width=auto>244 Under</TD><TD class=main_body_blk width="25%">8.5 blocks -115</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

On it under and 76er/Motown ov 3 pt att. 31 1/2. Just do not see gimp centers on either side jumping to block much. They would have to quadruple output just to get to 8, still a winner. I'll bite. 76ers content to launch 20-25 threes. Figure Motown good for 10-15. They attempted 36 last game, and had opens looks. Would think they both fire them up again.
Thanks X...something to root for...OF:howdy:

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

That is what I get for going against sharps on Det un. Neither team could make a 3 if they dropped it from an inch above the rim.

Try avoid that mistake again...OF:howdy:

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper]

a 1 unit lesson doesn't hurt if it pays in the long run. Let's hit the big 3 and 4 units and we won't care about this one.

good luck and thanks for sharing

 

[3peet]

Sac +2.5 for (2.5 units):toast:

 

[Dante]

im on the UNDER to OFrog..good luck

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Hit both props X, 7 blocks and 35 3 attempts, right on my numbers. Also railed both totals, but got hooked on 1 unit play. Thanks a bunch for pointing out that block prop. That is why I am here sharing...

Great Job...OF:howdy: :toast:

 

[Noreaga+]

its amazing how the winning percentage drops so much when you have to post before games isnt it??

nice sac plays , did you happen to watch any of the games between sac and seattle this year????

 

[spreadbeater]

Frog,

Just got back from the Heat game. Saw you decided to go against me and play the over in the Pistons game. :nono5: JK. Nit hit on the over of the Heat game. The Heat are for real and will advance easily to the East Finals where they will most likely meet the Pistons. Just turned on the Sonics/Kings game and see we are down DD once again. I think we both forgot that the Sonics have the best center in the league, Jerome James. LOL. What a joke. Cannot believe that this guy is proving do be the difference maker in this series.

 

[TheQuest]

Noreaga - Whats the point? Everytime Frog posts you have to jump in. You don't like the way he posts. We get it. No one cares.

Thanks for sharing Frog. Best of luck to everyone.

 

[X-Files]

Hit both props X, 7 blocks and 35 3 attempts, right on my numbers. Also railed both totals, but got hooked on 1 unit play. Thanks a bunch for pointing out that block prop. That is why I am here sharing...

Great Job...OF:howdy: :toast:

With all that you offer you certainly deserve that & more.
Always a pleasure to read your comments on these forums.